Despite the four-year sentence handed on Tuesday to radical Islamist cleric Abu Bakar Bashir and the August 11 capture of top Jemaah Islamiya leader Riduan Isamuddin, aka Hambali, reports of JI's demise, to paraphrase Mark Twain, are premature.
| On the other hand, the twin slaps didn't make the organization any stronger... |
Bashir, 65, was convicted of forgery, immigration violations and treason-related charges. The judges found there was not enough evidence to back prosecution claims that he headed JI, the Southeast Asian terror group that has murdered hundreds in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines in recent years, and is alleged to be linked to with al-Qaeda.
| I think Hizzoner imposed the minimum sentence he though he could get away with... |
A recent report from the International Crisis Group (ICG) details the threat posed by JI. Released on August 26, the report "Jemaah Islamiyah in Southeast Asia: Damaged but Still Dangerous" finds that it remains active, and deadly. Considering the August 5 bombing of a hotel in Jakarta, which killed 12 people, and that on Tuesday four suspected JI members were arraigned for plotting terrorist attacks on five embassies in Thailand and tourist spots in the country's premier tourist spots of Pattaya and Phuket, this should come as no surprise. But the ICG report is noteworthy for its detailed analysis. It finds that it is "a bigger organization than previously thought, with a depth of leadership that gives it a regenerative capacity. It has communication with and has received funding from al-Qaeda, but it is very much independent and takes most, if not all, operational decisions locally." The report also notes that several members of the central command have not yet been identified, let alone apprehended. The cell structure is also considered more extensive than originally believed.
| That's how it became a major international terror organization operating in four countries — Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines — and aggressively expanding into others — Thailand, Cambodia, probably Burma, and Australia. |
While the arrest of Hambali weakens JI and many of its members are being hunted down - more than 200 are now in custody - it remains a big organizations whose members probably number in the thousands, and it is spread across a very big and populous archipelago. And JI is organized well enough that no single individual is indispensable.
| That means they'll have to be taken out in batches, which the Indons actually did in the wake of the Bali bombing. There are more batches waiting to be taken, but not as strong or experienced... |
According to the ICG report, the JI organization is something of a family affair. "The JI network is held together not just by ideology and training but also by an intricate network of marriages that at times makes it seems like a giant extended family. Insufficient attention has been paid to the role the women of JI play in cementing the network. In many cases, senior JI leaders arranged the marriages of their subordinates to their own sisters or sisters-in-law to keep the network secure."
| Those dynastic marriages will come in handy under the eventual Caliphate, when people are competing to snag the jewelled turbans for themselves... |
Furthermore, according to the report, despite some past media reports, JI is hardly an al-Qaeda franchise. While the two groups have some elements in common, notably jihadist ideology and a long history of shared experience in Afghanistan, JI's focus, despite the claims about wanting to establish a Southeast Asian caliphate, continues to be on establishing an Islamic state in Indonesia.
| But their idea of "Indonesia" includes Malaysia and Singapore and a good chunk of the Philippines. And anything else they can gnaw off. They're affiliated with Qaeda in the same manner Ansar al-Islam is, or al-Tawhid or the Chechen Arabs... |
In theory JI has a formal structure. At the top sits an emir.
| That's the guy with the jewelled turban and the dancing girls. He's very holy, God's representative on earth... |
Beneath him are four councils - governing council, religious council, fatwah council and disciplinary council.
| These will be interlocking directorates, and there will be considerable dynastic marriage among them. Altogether, they'll make up the Council of Boskone... ummm... SPECTRE... errrr... Learned Elders of Islam... Whatever they call it. |
The governing council is headed by a central command that exerts control over four regions. One covered Singapore and Malaysia and provided financing for JI operations. Hambali was its head until early last year. The second region covered most of Indonesia and was considered the target of jihad efforts. The third region covered Mindanao, Sabah and Sulawesi. The last covered Papua and Australia and was responsible for fundraising.
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