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| Terror Networks | |
| Bin Laden Terror Tape Not Recent | |
| 2003-09-24 | |
| U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded that the videotape of Osama bin Laden played on an Arabic television channel two weeks ago and broadcast around the world, was shot in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan at least 21 months ago, well before U.S. forces stormed the region in late November 2001, a senior counterterrorist official told ABCNEWS. The Tora Bora region continues to be patrolled by U.S. and Afghan forces and therefore it would not be considered safe for bin Laden to return there. The most recent searches for bin Laden have focused on South Waziristan, a lawless 40-square-mile area of Pakistan across the border and to the south of Tora Bora. A geologist familiar with the Afghan-Pakistan border region also told ABCNEWS the rock formations and climate seen in the video, a high-altitude rocky terrain, with mist and visible clouds, and high evergreens are similar to those found in Tora Bora. The videotape — which surfaced on Sept. 10, the eve of the second anniversary of the terrorist attacks — included eight minutes of footage showing bin Laden and Zawahiri together, walking through the mountains, and appearing to enjoy the scenery. They do not talk in the video but audio of the two men speaking was laid over the video which conveyed the impression that the two men were together, alive and well, celebrating the second anniversary of the attacks and warning of new attacks. That was the idea the director was going for. In fact, U.S. technical analysts have concluded that the tape, which was received as one package by the Arab satellite television channel al Jazeera, was actually composed of three separate tapes, made at different times, under different technical conditions, and edited together for propaganda value. The videotape of the two men walking together was probably shot in early November 2001; the audio purportedly of bin Laden was also recorded more than one year ago; whereas the audio of Zawahiri was probably recorded recently. CIA analysts confirmed the Zawahiri tape as authentic, and strongly believe the other was the voice of bin Laden.
Binny must be behind on his reading. The absence of recent time references on the bin Laden audio is in marked contrast to the Zawahiri audiotape in which the bin Laden aide says: "Here comes the second anniversary of the two raids of New York and Washington." In another statement on the audiotape, Zawahiri appears to take a direct shot at the Iranian government, which has been in discussion with the U.S. about turning over Saif al-Adel, al Qaeda’s No. 3 leader and top military commander, and other senior al Qaeda leaders. The statement was a clear indication of the level of concern at the upper levels of the al Qaeda organization: "As for those who bargain the surrendering of Muslim prisoners to their crusader enemies, we tell them that the crusaders will turn against them even if they sold them their women and children. We tell them that in Islamic history, there’s punishment for the traitors, the agents and those who sell out their religion, and then God’s torture in the afterlife. What a bad choice they are making. They have to know that handing over Muslim prisoners to the enemy is a crime that has to be punished." Interesting, maybe they are worried about Iran. Analysts believe that this elaborate propaganda ploy demonstrates that al Qaeda is under considerable pressure to maintain the belief that bin Laden is alive and well and still in charge of al Qaeda. However, intelligence analysts also believe that it is in fact a strong indication that Zawahiri and bin Laden are no longer together, that bin Laden himself is either inaccessible, physically incapacitated or dead, and that Zawahiri is now the effective leader of al Qaeda. Bingo! | |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #11 Then, after Tora Bora nothing but re-runs This sounds like a simple ratings problem. I suggest an ad blitz and guest stars. I'll have Allah call your people. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2003-9-24 9:57:05 PM |
| #10 His followers may still be carrying his body around, trying to keep up the illusion that he's alive. Maybe Andrew McCarthy and Jonathan Silverman should be contacted to see if they'd like to try making "Weekend at bin Laden's".... |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2003-9-24 6:20:09 PM |
| #9 Osama aired video and audio tapes his whole life on a regualr basis, even after we started to close in on him in Afghanistan. Then, after Tora Bora nothing but re-runs. And even the re-runs are few and far bewtween. Osama is dead, the only question is where his body is. His followers may still be carrying his body around, trying to keep up the illusion that he's alive. Or, we might be letting people think he's alive so that they attack us in Iraq. Chances are we're just keeping his death top secret so he doesn't become a martyr. |
| Posted by: Charles 2003-9-24 4:47:15 PM |
| #8 I think the problem with someone at Bush or Cheney's level saying that he's dead is that it would be politically embarassing if he pulls a Whack-A-Mole trick the following week. This is not what you want immediately before an election. I think that after the election, they'll announce that "after careful analysis, we believe Osama is fertilizer" -- and if Osama wants to show up immediately thereafter holding a copy of the NYTimes with that headline (a la Truman), they can deal with it then. |
| Posted by: snellenr 2003-9-24 2:36:27 PM |
| #7 I myself wait and hold horses for Pancho Vila. He's just across the river up in the hills. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2003-9-24 1:38:43 PM |
| #6 Does anybody believe his ultimate fate will be revealed before the 2004 US presidential elections? My guess is that the USA have at least a coherent idea, if not a clear knowledge of what is going on for this prick (dead/alive, general location of his hiding/burial,...), let it sleeps as it suits them (otherwise the WOT is "won" while it is still far from be), and will act conveniently before it becomes an election issue for GWB, with an Irak hopefully on the way to recovery and the WOT grand scheme well on track. |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2003-9-24 1:36:00 PM |
| #5 Good to know, but I don't think we needed the intel experts to tell us this. It looked like a really bad home video from the mid-80's. Dead, vegetative, scared spitless, makes no never mind to me. Still, a head on a pike would make a difference in the election. |
| Posted by: Matt 2003-9-24 11:05:48 AM |
| #4 As long as they don't find his body the wacko lunoislamics cannot claim him as a martyr to whip up sentiment for their crimes. I personnaly think we know he is room temperature and worm food and we are keeping it quiet to not give the ugly little(!!???) crap head martyr status. |
| Posted by: SOG475 2003-9-24 11:05:28 AM |
| #3 U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded that the videotape of Osama bin Laden played on an Arabic television channel two weeks ago and broadcast around the world, was shot in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan at least 21 months ago, well before U.S. forces stormed the region in late November 2001, a senior counterterrorist official told ABCNEWS. Looking at bin Laden's mug on the videotape, it seemed to me to be pretty damn obvious that it wasn't up-to-date. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2003-9-24 10:28:54 AM |
| #2 I agree with Frank G. Fucker is worm food. And until I see strong evidence indicating otherwise I will continue to believe that Osama is dead. You know what would be more fitting is if he suffered serious head trauma, is alive, but having to be fed bug-paste through a straw by his nanny cause he's brain fried and thinks he's a 8 year old girl named Natalie. Now THAT is a plesant thought. |
| Posted by: Swiggles 2003-9-24 10:28:15 AM |
| #1 Bin Laden is protein paste on the walls of a cave in Tora Bora or incapacitated elsewhere - the propaganda benefit of him holding up a current edition of Dawn and taunting the U.S. far outweighs the efforts to patch together this tape |
| Posted by: Frank G 2003-9-24 9:53:41 AM |