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| Arabia | |
| Can Riyadh reform before the royal family falls? | |
| 2003-11-12 | |
| by David Pryce-Jones in the Wall Street Journal. EFL; read it all. [In Saudi Arabia,] 5,000 or more princes control all power and resources, sharing out ministries and governorships and oil revenues as they see fit. Their idea of democracy is to appoint an advisory council and religious leaders carefully vetted to provide a facade of legitimacy. Immemorial tribal custom and the local Wahhabi brand of Islam are defended and perpetuated to create the impression that this is the natural order of things. The Shiite minority forms about 20% of the population, but on the grounds that they are not Wahhabis they are arrested without trial, tortured and often disappear. Rights and the rule of law are only what the ruling family says they are. The Saudi family of course has a large and privileged security and police apparatus at its service. In other words, less like a government than a mob family. No blueprint exists in any of the textbooks for successfully modernizing a society like this one. . . . Sept. 11 forced the U.S. and everyone else to recognize that Saudi Arabia has become a danger to itself and the rest of the world. Lest we forget, almost all the hijackers hailed from the kingdom. Individual Saudis, including some princes and their so-called charities, have sponsored—and continue to sponsor—terror groups, including their homegrown al Qaeda, in some 60 countries. Faced with the evidence, the ruling Saudis have preferred to prevaricate, often refusing to share intelligence, hampering investigations and the pursuit of justice. That only works for a while. Those who gave money to al Qaeda were hoping to buy off Osama bin Laden, insuring themselves against him. But that's not easy. Bin Laden wants to return to a tribal Wahhabi society in its purest form. In his eyes, the presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia was sacrilege, and he has been threatening to dethrone the Saudi royal family that permitted it. The relocation of U.S. troops elsewhere in the region removes that particular grievance but also leaves the country to its own devices. The ruling family, bin Laden, the Shiites, groups of dissidents and exiles, and everyone else are quite free to struggle for power as best they can without outside interference. "Last one standing gets to claim soverignty." At this late moment, any suggestion of reform looks like weakness, which only invites more of the violence it aims to disarm. In aviation, that's known as a "graveyard spiral." Evidently granting concessions under pressure, the ruling family recently announced that in principle elections could be held for 14 municipal councils. Another unprecedented step was a human rights conference held in mid-October in Riyadh. Hundreds of people took this opportunity to demonstrate, until antiriot police firing tear gas dispersed them. The conference called, among other things, for a greater role for women in a country where they are not allowed to drive a car or even to go out unaccompanied by a male member of the family. "They demand it," in the words of an editorial in an official English-language newspaper, "Saudi Arabia needs it."
. . . until the next time it happens. Unlike the unfortunate Louis XVI, those 5,000 and more princes have a real stranglehold on power, as well as the will for self-preservation. Their security apparatus may well succeed in maintaining for a while longer the peculiar stagnation cherished by the ruling family. Not indefinitely, though. A revolt that becomes a revolution is an irresistible force that sweeps away what once seemed unmovable objects in its path. Faster, please. | |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #8 Missed some key ingredients here: Can Nigeria keep from going totally fundamentalist Islamic? Will Libya waffle again? What will the black turbantops in Iran do? How about Azerbaijan and Georgia (lots of oil there, too, remember!)? One key winner, if it's in place and stable enough at that time, will be a democratic Iraq. That will be the key to success or failure of the entire Islamofascist putsch. If Iraq can build and maintain a stable government, the Islamofascists lose, big-time. Another winner will be Israel. Without Saudi money, the Paleos will dry up and blow away - literally. There is no economy to support them but the Israeli economy. There will be some MAJOR changes in the Middle East! Another key question will be Egypt. If Egypt really stays out of the fray, the chance of major positive changes in the ME will be possible. If Egypt interferes, it will muddy the waters just enough to make everything take longer and cost more, includinng US lives. |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2003-11-12 6:43:38 PM |
| #7 Other winner Norway. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2003-11-12 3:47:31 PM |
| #6 If Suadi falls into chaos and the oil stops,who will be winners and losers? Winner:Russia.All that Siberian oil Europe,Japan and China will pay anything for. Winner:whoever gains control of Spratley(?)Islands and oil underneath.Contenders-China(one reason China is expanding navy),Phillipines and Vietnam(one reason Vietnam wants better relations w/US). Winner:England.That North Sea oil is really gonna look good.Will have to guard against attempts to Euro-ize the oil. Loser:Palestinian terror orgs.Losing all that Saudi funding is gonna hurt. Loser:Islamic schools and "churches".See above. Loser:Continental Europe.No local oil,no way to project power to grab some. Push:Uncle Sam is really gonna be interested in who is running Venezuela,Columbia and Mexico. |
| Posted by: Stephen 2003-11-12 2:55:36 PM |
| #5 I agree with IS. There will be chaos in that country when the revolution comes. First off, all the foreigners will skeedaddle, westerners, paks, phillipinos, everyone. This means that the plumbing won't work, the lights will go out, the cars won't get fixed and most certainly, the oil won't flow. Hopefully we will let it descend into some chaos before we go in and restore order. I'm guessing that there will be more support for us on this one since countries like Japan, Korea and much of Western Europe depend on oil from the Soddys. Their killing one another will be an interesting spectacle. No one deserves it more (Bad Bob in Zimbabwe does come in a close second...maybe tied with the black hats in Iran). |
| Posted by: remote man 2003-11-12 1:29:41 PM |
#4 But will the new rulers be better than the old ones?No. They would be replaced by radicals that make the bigot saudi royals look like jew loving moderates by comparison. But that doesn't matter. After the royals fall, we can go in and kill the radicals in one of the capitals of jihad inc, AKA Arabia. And if the people that come to power in arabia after that are worse than the radicals, then topple them too. Keep doing it until they either begin to figure it out, or a thrown into such profound chaos, that they have no ability to focus attacks on us, rather they will be much more concerned with the difficult task of finding enough food to make it through the day. |
| Posted by: ISLAM SUCKS 2003-11-12 12:18:02 PM |
| #3 The scent of revolution is in the air. How this all plays out will be of monumental significance. I'd say the die is cast and the kingdom is doomed. Hows that for appopolitic(?) blather. |
| Posted by: Lucky 2003-11-12 11:46:04 AM |
| #2 But will the new rulers be better than the old ones? I doubt it. And a civil war will disrupt oil prices and supplies in a big way, especially if it happens before Iraq comes online again. Can you spell depression? (And it would get a lot harder to fight a war with money in short supply.) What would be ideal? I hope for a democratic and friendly Arabia; but I don't see it happening. As a fallback, how about partitioning S.A--the Shi'ites get the oil, the Jordanian Hashemites get the holy sites back, and the Saudis get the empty quarter. That won't happen either, unless somebody helps. |
| Posted by: James 2003-11-12 11:01:48 AM |
| #1 Can Riyadh reform in time to avoid their own destruction? I sure fucking hope not. They do not deserve to survive any of this shit that they have been funding and inciting around the world. They deserve to be buried alive, doused in gasoline and set on fire. Just my .02 |
| Posted by: ISLAM SUCKS 2003-11-12 10:31:35 AM |