Al-Qaida-linked groups are training and recruiting militants to carry out suicide attacks that have become Osama bin Laden’s "greatest achievement" as his brand of extremist Islam spreads around the world, a terrorism expert said Wednesday. The greatest threats include Al Ansar Al Islam in Iraq, Jemaah Islamiyah in Southeast Asia, Al Ansar Mujahidin in Chechnya, the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Salafist Group for Call and Combat in Algeria, Rohan Gunaratna told a Southeast Asian outlook forum.
Al-Ansar al-Islam is another name for Ansar al-Islam, while the al-Ansar Mujahideen is another name for Abu Walid’s mob up in Chechnya/Dagestan.
| I was wondering what they actually call themselves... |
Gunaratna said a fresh batch of Jemaah Islamiyah terrorists will graduate Jan. 15 from a camp in the southern Philippines. The camp is run by the secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front, or MILF, which is fighting for an independent Muslim homeland in Mindanao, Gunaratna said. He did not elaborate on the number of graduates or where he got his information, but Indonesia intelligence has also said there’s a recruiting drive for the group, thought to have about 3,000 members. Sidney Jones, the Indonesian project director for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, supported Gunaratna’s assessment on the Philippines being a Jemaah Islamiyah training ground. "There are several MILFs, all using the same name," Jones said, adding that these factions were not the same as the group now conducting peace negotiations with Manila.
| I'm confused. I thought there were factions in MILF, but only one disorganized organization... |
Despite the arrest of Jemaah Islamiyah’s alleged operations chief Hambali in Thailand last year, Jones said there were a number of key group operatives still at large, including Azahari Husin and Nordin Mohamed Top. The two men are accused of planning the Bali bombings. Gunaratna, author of "Inside al-Qaida: Global Network of Terror," said the bulk of the terrorist attacks expected in 2004 will come from these groups — trained and financed by bin Laden and not the network itself. "Small, disparate organizations mounting operations are in many ways Osama bin Laden’s greatest achievement," said Gunaratna.
| Depending on your definition of "great," of course... |
Before the Sept. 11, 2001 strikes in the United States, the al-Qaida network launched an attack every two years; since then, there has been one al-Qaida-linked attack every three months, Gunaratna noted. He predicted that pace will continue through this year, with the growing threats coming from the smaller, regional terrorist organizations. "As the memory of 9/11 recedes, the West is likely to witness another mass casualty attack on Western soil," Gunaratna said.
| That's the confluence of the short attention span of the public and an election year... |
In a paper presented at the forum, he said: "The threat of terrorism and its associated groups will persist throughout 2004." Maritime targets are vulnerable to attack, he said, adding "almost all the attacks will be suicide vehicle bombings, an al-Qaida hallmark." If left unchecked, Iran could emerge as a training ground for al-Qaida terrorists, Gunaratna predicted.
They’re already hosting the top brass, so that makes sense. |