| Submit your comments on this article |
| Syria-Lebanon |
| Analysis: Hizbullah in distress |
| 2004-01-27 |
| JPost Reg req’d - EF New stuff Gloating Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will likely chalk up more headlines and anger more Israelis, particularly the families of the POWs and MIAs, before the week is through. But the demagogic leader of the Iran-backed, Syria-supported Lebanese terrorist group is actually in distress without room for maneuver. JPost is normally the more conservative Israeli paper (especially compared to Haaretz) - I don’t know if this is face-saving spin for Sharon or not, but I still think the swap was a bad idea Ironically, by going ahead with the prisoner exchange, Hizbullah is disarming itself of its main raison d’ etre, further diminishing its legitimacy to remain Lebanon’s sole terrorist organization. well, I wouldn’t discount the nutcases in the Paleo camps like Ein-el-hellhole, either "Just carrying out the deal is a great concession for Nasrallah. He climbed down a lot of trees on the way to this arrangement," said Prof. Eyal Zisser of Tel Aviv University’s Dayan Center. Nasrallah originally demanded the 1,500 Palestinians which they chose be freed. The agreed upon deal calls for 400 of Israel’s choice. He also conceded on demands to release terrorists with blood on their hands, such as infiltrator Samir Kuntar who killed four Israelis in a 1979 raid on Nahariya. asked for too much, settled for less Hizbullah collapsed in the talks because it is under pressure. The pressure is coming from inside Lebanon where more and more voices question Hizbullah’s reasons for existence and blame it for bringing misfortune to Lebanon’s stunted development. Walid Jumblatt’s and Emile Lahoude’s comments this past week haven’t helped either, and they’re homegrown idiots "In light of this, it was important for Nasrallah to close the deal, present its prizes, and to strengthen Hizbullah’s position inside Lebanon," Zisser said, adding that it would be fleeting. "While the prisoner deal will be a feather in his cap, in the end Hizbullah has a problem. It actually pulls the rug out from under them and the reason for the organization’s existence. Until now, he could say he exists because of the Lebanese prisoners. What is Nasrallah going to say now to those who say the time has come to put an end to it all?" "we’re for the rest of the prisoners left behind"? Zisser said that there is a rising number of Lebanese who are questioning Hizbullah’s necessity. Newspaper editorials are saying that there are other, more important matters than the Shebaa farms, like the economy. Furthermore, the flowering of southern Lebanon has also restrained Hizbullah from heating up the border, where even the slightest action draws the IDF’s wrath. slightest = firing an anti-tank missile or capturing/killing three IDF soldiers while dressed as UN protection forces? Officers said that last week’s retaliatory air raid for the deadly anti-tank missile attack on a bulldozer wiped out two bases and caused casualties. The group did not risk further Israeli retaliation since that would destroy their accomplishments in the south. But, one cautioned, "don’t eulogize Hizbullah yet." Officers said that Iran and Syria are not yet ready to see the demise of their proxy for striking at Israel. They also predicted Hizbullah pushing its jihadist philosophy in the Palestinian front, where it has already made inroads in funding and directing terrorist attacks. I remain skeptical, and would rather see Nasrallah in the video playback of a hellfire attack |
| Posted by:Frank G |
| #4 Until now, he could say he exists because of the Lebanese prisoners So that's why Israel did it. Hmmm...dangerous game as it gives him credibility. I guess ultimately it will depend on whether it lets the air out of his balloon or not. Only time will tell. |
| Posted by: B 2004-1-27 1:43:17 PM |
| #3 Any chance the pressure coming from inside Lebanon is actually coming from Damascus? |
| Posted by: ruprecht 2004-1-27 12:57:22 PM |
| #2 Israel is also probably releasing anti PA people as well as a few who ultimately will be intell assets. There may have also been a deal with Syria that certain of their favorite people get released in exchange for something. All these, however are 'maybes'. |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-1-27 12:12:03 PM |
| #1 The pressure is coming from inside Lebanon where more and more voices question Hizbullah’s reasons for existence and blame it for bringing misfortune to Lebanon’s stunted development. [...] Zisser said that there is a rising number of Lebanese who are questioning Hizbullah’s necessity. Newspaper editorials are saying that there are other, more important matters than the Shaba farms, like the economy. More power to that light, please. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2004-1-27 11:58:24 AM |