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India-Pakistan
The End of Jihad
2004-02-02
The bitterness was palpable among the more than one dozen hardened jihadi fighters. Veterans of the 14-year guerrilla struggle against Indian control of Kashmir, they had gathered in a cold, dingy room in the Pakistani-administered zone to discuss their narrowing options. Last month’s historic agreement struck between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee posed a near-knockout blow to the militants’ hopes of ending India’s occupation of the disputed Himalayan territory. In the deal, Musharraf promised to crack down on the militants, ending their cross-border attacks on Indian forces. In turn, Vajpayee agreed to begin unconditional negotiations with Pakistan on the status of Kashmir—a source of tension that has twice led these nuclear-armed rivals to war.

Not all of the guerrillas are ready to lay down their arms. "We will not allow Musharraf to sell out the blood of our martyrs," says Saifullah, a bearded fighter in his early 20s. "We will continue the jihad no matter what." But others seemed resigned to the fact that the fighting may be coming to an end. "We have been betrayed," laments Mohammad Ashraq, a native of the Kashmiri capital of Srinagar. "We have no choice now but to return to our homes." Ashraq is probably right, given the larger forces pushing the leaders of India and Pakistan toward peace. "It’s the beginning of the end of the Kashmir jihad," says Rifaat Hussain, a defense analyst at Islamabad’s Quaid-i-Azam University.
It might be a bit early to start writing the epitath. We’ll have to see what happens when the winter snow melts, and what happens when Musharaf steps down as Army chief.
Musharraf has promised to curb the jihadis before. But in the past he hedged his bets, ordering only a temporary halt to attacks in the hope that India would reciprocate by sitting down for talks. This time, following two serious assassination attempts last December, one led by a suicide bomber belonging to the outlawed jihadi group Jaish-e-Mohammed, he has more reason than ever to clamp down on his homegrown militants. Facing down the jihadis will be no small task: since an indigenous insurrection against Indian rule broke out in Kashmir in 1989, some 10,000 fighters belonging to at least six Pakistan-based guerrilla groups have crossed the border to aid their Kashmiri brothers-in-arms. But already Islamabad has transformed the battleground. The constant Pakistani artillery barrages that once provided cover for the guerrillas’ infiltration have ended. The ceasefire along the Line of Control dividing Kashmir has held since December. Pakistani Army units have been given orders not to offer any aid to the militants, and security forces are combing Pakistani cities in search of extremists.
Masood Azhar isn't in jug. Hafiz Saeed isn't in jug or dead. It's still not serious.
Pakistan’s generals have even taken the jihadis out of their military playbook: in the event of war, the militants will no longer be counted on as a guerrilla force designed to attack Indian Army units behind the lines. "The Army realizes that the jihad strategy is counterproductive and is determined to reverse course," says retired Pakistani Army general Talat Masood.
That’s an important revelation right there. The various Jihadi outfits, like the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad etc were part of the Pakistani Order of Battle. There training camps in Kashmir are located within walking distance of Pak military camps, and they share uniforms and weapons. Many soldiers actually go on tours of duty with the Jihadis across the Line of Control, and then return to their units. The Jihadis were always meant to be a highly motivated army that would be used in any war with India, which is why they have been able to run rampant all over the country for the last couple decades.
The embittered militants know that they can still change the course of events. "We can bring down the entire peace process with a massive guerrilla operation," boasts Saifullah. Yet they no longer command much support among Kashmiris, who are sick of the violence that has claimed upward of 60,000 lives. Islamabad and New Delhi are now set to start talking again on Feb. 16. India seems more eager to address a string of specific concerns—transport, trade, communication and water rights—rather than begin by tackling the tough security issues.

While welcoming Musharraf’s new hard line against the militants, India is still skeptical about the Pakistani military’s commitment to the peace. Indian intelligence sources say that not all of the jihadi camps inside Pakistan have been put out of business. "Until all these are shut down, the flow of trained and armed militants into Kashmir will not stop," says an Indian intelligence source. "So it would be foolish on our part to stop hunting [the militants]."
Nevertheless, if the current calm can be extended, Indian security forces would theoretically be able to reduce the frequency of their operations in Kashmir and begin to scale back their numbers. Political leaders would find it easier to negotiate more autonomy for the Kashmiris, even though New Delhi is unlikely to cede any of the two thirds of Kashmir that it now controls. In the short run, peace and more autonomy would go a long way toward answering most Kashmiris’ aspirations. And that’s when bitterness might truly be replaced by hope.
Posted by:Paul Moloney

#4  I don't think these old dogs will fade away - would it be humane to put them to sleep, in a manner of speaking.
Posted by: Super Hose   2004-2-2 5:59:39 PM  

#3  good news.
Posted by: B   2004-2-2 10:01:18 AM  

#2  Run rampart over the country? Eh?

Better call Emergency 51!
Posted by: gromky   2004-2-2 5:32:58 AM  

#1  You just can't kill the beast. It must be expertly exterminated. Jihadis are like dusty wooley devils.
Posted by: Lucky   2004-2-2 2:23:49 AM  

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