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Iranians Flooding Into Iraq
2004-02-21
From Jihad Unspun
The Baghdad correspondent for the Jordanian daily al-‘Arab al-Yawm, Ahmad Sabri, reports that Arab public opinion is following with great concern the rapidly growing Iranian presence in Iraq. Iranians are present in Iraq on the grounds that they are making pilgrimage to Shi‘i holy sites such as an-Najaf and Karbala’ but religion is frequently a pretext for the smuggling of drugs into Iraqi territory and the smuggling of Iraqi resources, antiquities, manuscripts, and even foodstuffs into Iran. Sabri writes that observers of the situation in Karbala’, an-Najaf, al-Kazimiyah, and Samarra’, as well as Iraqi cities near the Iranian frontier are reporting that Iranian government agencies are working systematically and now have a widely established presence in the centers of these cities where they exploit the absence of local security and order.

According to Iraqi newspaper reports, tens of thousands of Iranians cross the border into Iraq every day, ostensibly to visit Shi‘i holy sites. But those who closely follow this development regard this highly significant scale of Iranian influx – said to total 2 million Iranians in all – as being of potentially serious danger to the security and welfare of Iraq as a result of the chaotic and unsupervised situation that prevails at the border crossings between the two countries. The Shi‘i holy cities have taken on the appearance of Iranian cities, Sabri writes, making it difficult even to find Arabic speakers there. The Iraqi press published a feature story on the Iranian presence in Iraq that reported that the Iranian flag now flies in the courtyard that lies between the tomb of the Shi‘i Imam al-Husayn and that of his brother al-‘Abbas in Karbala’.

Nor is the matter limited to such symbolic manifestations. The Iranian secret police have become highly active in Iraqi cities, recruiting Iraqis by enticement or threat, and distributing pamphlets and books that promote Iran’s political experience, according to the police chief in al-Basrah, who reported that his policemen had monitored this Iranian activity and arrested a number of agents. Eye witnesses from Karbala’ and an-Najaf report that the cities are being swept by a wave of unprecedented inflation in the price of land and rental rates for apartments and shops. Prices for food are also on the rise because of the huge influx of Iranians into the two cities where they buy and smuggle locally available goods. The Iraqi press reports that the Iranian secret services are pouring millions of dollars into Iraq and stockpiling large quantities of weapons in specifically designated secret locations in the southern part of the country. The Baghdad papers warn of the danger that hundreds of explosive devices can be imported long-distance from Iran and that they are in fact already in the possession of arms merchants, criminal gangs, and thieves.
I think bringing explosives to Iraq is like bringing coal to Newcastle. It's no surprise that there would be an upsurge in pilgrims and such to the holy sites — they're Shiism's holiest cities and they're not that difficult a trip. Nor is access controlled, like the Soddies do with Mecca. Qom is a religious backwater, compared to Karbala. That being a given, it also makes sense that the Iranian secret police try to exploit the large numbers of Iranian warm bodies in the bosom of the Great Satan, and it makes sense that a proportion of those making the "pilgrimage" would be social undesirables. The cops seem to be aware of the problem, and I assume they're taking steps to deal with it. The more interesting aspect is that the story pushes Zarqawi's Sunni-Shia split.
Posted by:Mike Sylwester

#4  I find these 2 timelines of extreme interest:

1) US General Election in November

2) Feverish efforts by Black Hats to acquire a nuke pkg they can tip one of their "upgraded" missiles with

Anyone taking bets on which occurs first?

I'm not as worried about the Mad Mullahs' attempt to mfg weapons-grade fissile material themselves (I don't think they can manage it in the available timeframe) as I am with the possibility that they'll find someone to sell them a finished product. In spite of the dearth of comments about it, I have a clear recollection of previous events:

1) Rafsanjani's multiple declarations that Iran would nuke Israel the minute they acquired a deliverable warhead

2) the Missile Parade - complete with "nose art" of their intentded use

I hope we are doing everything possible to make sure they don't get a finished warhead. I have little doubt that, if re-elected, Dubya will handle the home-brew threat. Unfortunately I have to assume we have some notion of their progress - though intel failures have been shown to be significant lately. Tenet has had a number of serious failures on his watch at CIA... We are talking about people who dream of nuking Israel out of existence and are insane enough to follow through, per Rafsanjani's statements.
Posted by: .com   2004-2-21 3:02:24 PM  

#3  Hiryu - i wouldn't count out it yet. let the election process get over with then by the end of next we just might be in control of these iranian govt institutions. or at the very least the mullas collective asses will be burned.
Posted by: Dan   2004-2-21 10:03:48 AM  

#2  Having pretty much zero faith at this point in the administration's strategic calculations, I just hope that they've wargamed a Shi'ite insurrection backed up with an Iranian military intervention.

Posted by: Hiryu   2004-2-21 9:18:05 AM  

#1  I mean to put this in the Iraq section.
Posted by: Mike Sylwester   2004-2-21 8:47:56 AM  

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