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| Home Front: Politix |
| Bush Takes Back The Lead As ’Primary Effect’ Wanes |
| 2004-03-13 |
| President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest. The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader. In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%. A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds. Bush now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest. Bush’s lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry’s lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush’s lead widened to 18 points from 13. In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points. "The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD’s polling partner. Now, after Democratic candidates’ months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said. The president’s ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution. Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson’s blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ." In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same. In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided. In a three-way race, Bush’s lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%. Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush. "Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur. The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points. |
| Posted by:ne1469 |
| #11 Dave, Thanks for reveiwing that. I feel worse already. |
| Posted by: Mr. Davis 2004-3-13 10:31:41 PM |
| #10 Thanks, but if I were a pro I wouldn't have omitted one of the most important parts of the Democrats' standardized litany of woe: The Environment! The Democrats would have us believe that after just 36 months of stewardship by "Bush and the Corporate Despoilers" we are once again breathing foul, acrid air that burns the eyes; birds are once more dropping dead out of our skies; the deformed, ulcerated carcasses of poisoned fish float lifelessly on the iridescent surfaces of rivers filmed over with greasy industrial toxins; arsenic pollutes our drinking water while huge, sticky gobbets of spilt crude oil wash up on our seashores; garbage chokes our overflowing landfills; and hundreds of species of flora and fauna perish each and every second as once-lush forests give way to barren landscapes of nothing but stumps as far as the eye can see. Does that about cover the Democrats' standard song and dance, environment-wise? |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2004-3-13 10:15:05 PM |
| #9 It is obvious that Dave D. is a pro. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-3-13 7:37:50 PM |
| #8 Dave D: nicely done. I like it. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2004-3-13 5:28:07 PM |
| #7 One sentence into ANY Frank Martin comment and I always recognize the style *hehe*. Wait for Kerry to do his "I have a scream" speech(es) and for Bush to respond with clarity, "John, name the names of the crooked. Prove the allegations of 'misleading' the public. Deny the surrogates' claims of coups. Otherwise, take your valium and shut the hell up." Kerry's already started the VRWC rants; those play best on Democrat Underground and SNL. They won't play well as a single note running eight months on Main Street, unless they play as an ever more tiresome joke. Funny the first time, logarithmically less funny with each subsequent reiteration... |
| Posted by: TiltingWindmill 2004-3-13 4:46:24 PM |
| #6 "(Are you sure you don't work for Kerry's campaign?!)" Uh, Jennie, I'm normally a very perceptive guy, but I gotta say: you lost me there. Clarify, please? |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2004-3-13 3:19:30 PM |
| #5 Dave, hilarious and right on target! (Are you sure you don't work for Kerry's campaign?!) |
| Posted by: Jennie Taliaferro 2004-3-13 2:37:02 PM |
| #4 I'm not too surprised at this. And I wouldn't be surprised to see the trend continue. The only way the Democrats can keep their most diehard core constituents fired up is by continuing to grossly misrepresent, in the most extravagant terms possible, not only Bush and his administration's policies, but also the realities of contemporary American life. Listening to the Democrats, you'd think we Americans are in the most desperate of straits: most of us unemployed, and even the lucky few of us who still have jobs anymore are kept awake at night worrying whether we'll still have one come morning or whether our job will have been outsourced to India; the American economy is in the worst shape since the Great Depression- literally on the brink of collapse; our troops in Iraq are getting slaughtered in huge numbers by a rising tide of jihadis enraged by George Bush's arrogant refusal to take orders from Kofi Annan; elderly Americans, lacking even the most basic of assistance, are starving in the streets in droves; the cost of even the most rudimentary medical care places it far beyond the means of all but the most wealthy among us; white supremacists are indulging in a spasm of racist violence against minorities; rich, fat-cat white-collar criminals are robbing us of our life savings left and right in a crime spree masterminded by Dick Cheney himself; and to top it all off, the French no longer treat us with their customary fawning adoration. But eventually, cognitive dissonance is going to set in: after listening to enough of this depressing, delusional Demo-crap, most Americans are likely to start wondering, "What the fuck are these people talking about? What the fuck is WRONG with them, anyway???" But Bush has got to come out swinging soon, though, and start countering the Democrats' lies, hypocrisies and ineffectual policy proposals. The best advice I've seen yet, is Peggy Noonan's: don't try to get the public angry at John Kerry; get them to laugh at him. God knows, he sure is laughable. |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2004-3-13 2:11:44 PM |
| #3 Bush's secret plan to win the election is 8 more months of camera time showing the self absorbent Jr. Senator from Massachusets doing his bad JFK impression with the camera angle always showing standing behind him is the Senior Senator from Massachusets, Teddy "Wheres my Gin Bottle" Kennedy. Thats the most subliminal " Im a loser" message if I ever saw one. Everytime I see Kerry, I know why we lost in Vietnam. This is the best guy the Dems could come up with? Atleast Howard Dean was interesting. |
| Posted by: Frank Martin 2004-3-13 2:01:33 PM |
| #2 The ONLY poll that counts will be taken in November, until then they are just dry-humping the electorate. I always love a good CNN/USA Poll. Remember the one that showed Howling Howard some 20 points ahead going to the Iowa cacus? I think your remember what happened there. |
| Posted by: Cyber Sarge 2004-3-13 1:46:30 PM |
| #1 should be in Homefront - Politix. Good article. Bush has a distinct opportunity to paint the Kerry portrait, which for most Americans says just "Senator, rich, viet nam vet" right now..... |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-3-13 12:49:59 PM |