2004-03-25 10:44:08 AM
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| Europe |
| Madrid via Il Giornale? |
| 2004-03-25 |
| There are some highly intelligent Islamist terrorist strategists who understand European politics to an extraordinary degree and, more importantly, they know how to exploit divisive issues in European politics like the war in Iraq, with or without suicide bombers. This statement flies in the face of Fareed Zakaria's March 15 Newsweek column, "The radicals are desperate." If Madrid March 11 is an example of their desperation, one shudders to think what the terrorists will do when they become cautious and optimistic. My view of their political intelligence is based on a March 14 expose in the Italian daily, Il Giornale of Milan, about an al Qaeda pamphlet published last year and discovered on the Web by Israeli and Norwegian investigators. The headline over the March 14 Giornale story reads: "The plan of the attack [on Madrid, March 11] was written in a booklet in 2003, in Iraq." What the 42-page pamphlet makes clear is that Madrid — remember this pamphlet is dated a year ago — was to be the first terrorist target to be followed by a similar terrorist attack on Italy, both attacks coupled to the anti-American terrorist resistance in Iraq. The objective of the attack was to force both countries to withdraw their troops from the coalition forces in Iraq. That, as we have seen, has already happened in Spain in the aftermath of the March 11 catastrophe. The pamphlet, titled, "Jihad in Iraq: Hopes and Risks. Analysis of Reality, Prospects and Current State of Jihad in Iraq," was published by a "Service Center for Mujaheddin," a name associated with al Qaeda. It was found by the Forsvarets Forskning Institutt, the Norwegian intelligence agency, and the Israeli secret service, according to Il Giornale. The 2003 pamphlet begins: "To compel the Spanish government to retreat from Iraq, we must strike powerfully. These attacks will be accompanied by a propaganda campaign on the issue of Iraq. To do this, it is essential to take advantage of the political elections in March 2004. The Spanish government cannot afford more than two or three attacks, after which it will have to retreat under the pressure of popular protest. If, however, the Spanish troops were to remain in Iraq, the Socialists will get elected, precisely on the basis of their explicit promise to bring back the troops." The pamphlet then proposes the same destabilizing strategy and cooperation with pacifist movements in Italy, where, it says, the situation is similar to Spain's. Target No. 3 is Britain. "The retreat of the Spanish and Italian troops from Iraq," concludes the booklet, "will create enormous pressure on Great Britain, which Tony Blair may not be able to handle. The dominoes will fall fast. The only problem is the choice of the first piece to hit." Well, they chose Spain and won. Next stop? Italy, Britain? |
| Posted by:Fred Pruitt |
| #10 LH -- sorry, but the climate theory doesn't wash. Much of Spain is hot in the summer, but most peoples in the world live in hotter climates yet still manage to lead a diurnal existence. Other Med. peoples may eat dinner late -- but at midnight? American college students generally love semesters abroad in Madrid. "Its sooo great -- hardly any school work, and we get to go clubbing everynight until dawn!" |
| Posted by: closet neo-con 2004-03-25 3:53:57 PM |
| #9 neo con, IIUC the siesta in the afternoon, dinner late at night was common in the Med countries back when they had high birthrates. In fact they do something like that in Israel (or did in 1981, at any rate) yet Israel had a high birth rate for a Western country (im speaking of the Israeli Jews). It was originally an accomodation to the climate, IIUC. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-03-25 3:00:25 PM |
| #8 The IRA was never defeated militarily despite 25 years trying The IRA wasnt trying to take over Great Britain - they were trying to take over (or get the Irish Republic to take over) Ulster, where something like 40% of the population sympathized with them. Ultimately the cost benefit for Britain simply wasnt there. Islamists taking over Europe is something else. Kinda like why the US left Viet Nam after 7 years, while the Israelis have stayed in the territories for 37 years, despite a much worse ratio of national power to the magnitude to the population in question. Which is not to say the Euro approach of handling this as purely a police matter is the best one, but its not quite as hopeless as the Ulster comparison makes it look, I think. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-03-25 2:57:08 PM |
| #7 Europeans may not be stupid, but it looks like a lot of them have decided that cultural suicide is the best option. Look at Spain's fertility rate: unless something changes fast, Spain will indeed again be al-Andalus in a couple of generations. But for the time being, the Spaniards have a good deal. If you don't eat dinner until 10:00 or 11:00, it not very convenient to have children around. Just bring in North Africans to do the nasty work, and party away until the wee hours every night. Here's another indicator: what percentage of Spanish and Italian 30-year old "men" live at home with mommy and daddy? Most of them do, or so I hear. |
| Posted by: closet neo-con 2004-03-25 11:04:32 AM |
| #6 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted] |
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Posted by: Smith
2004-03-25 10:44:08 AM
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| #5 They will not be defeated by several dozen small, secret groups of alien Moslem terrorists. Well that is the issue the Euros have to deal with. they think this is like the Baader Meinhof or the Red Brigades. A handful of extremists. Read the polls of Arab and Moslem views to 9/11 etc. A significant proportion think its was a 'good' thing then multiple that persentage by the male population of muslims between 18 and 40 in the EU and you get hundreds of thousands. That is the problem you have to deal with. As I pointed out before the IRAs pool of potential recruits was about a hundred thousand people in total and in a quite small geographic area. The jihadists pool of potential recruits in the EU is a hundred times larger spread over an area thousands of times bigger. The IRA was never defeated militarily despite 25 years trying. Now do you grasp what you are up against. This is just the begining. It will get much much worse. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2004-03-25 10:12:07 AM |
| #4 Europeans are not stupid. Dude, when you state something that bizarre, you're going to have to provide evidence. They will not be defeated by several dozen small, secret groups of alien Moslem terrorists. . Nope. They'll be beaten by the millions of Muslims they've invited in and let get away with acting like barbarians. They'll be beaten by their own cowardice. |
| Posted by: Robert Crawford 2004-03-25 9:12:29 AM |
| #3 How many European countries will have to be hit, how many people will have to die, before Europe gets the message that you can't deal with these people? You give in, they push harder next time. You have to hunt them down and kill them, and while your faith is admirable, Mike, as .com said, I just don't know if Europe really has the balls to do it. I wish they did, because if they aren't with us, then we'll have very few standing up against these bastards, and a whole lot of potential betrayers - I fear that we'll get a situation like in the old Soviet Union, where citizens, even though they might have their own doubts about the government, would betray their neighbors so the authorities wouldn't come for them. |
| Posted by: The Doctor 2004-03-25 9:12:05 AM |
| #2 MS - I hope you're right - on all points. I wish I had faith across the board, as you do. I do have faith in the intelligence / security services of some European countries - and they probably have the required relations and arrangements with (much or all of) the remainder to make progress against the Izzoids. TGA has made this point before and convinced me to wait and see. Your sensitivity is understood - you obviously have an emotional, as well as intellectual, connection underlying your comments - your persistence is as telling as it is admirable! But the criticisms posted here aren't coming out of vaccuum. Where the tone is harsh, it mirrors the sense of new vulnerability - or worse: betrayal. Complicity issues (UN - everything it touches, ease of manipulation and gridlock / EU - Oil for Food, Paleos / France & Russia - Oil for Food, nuke reactors, etc) or sudden changes compromising security arrangements (Spain - the first open break since the WoT began in earnest; Who would now freely share intel with Spain?) compromise our efforts -- and have generated the response. It certainly was predictable - so where does the surprise come from? Accept that they have created the issues, not us. They are autonomous - and culpable - we are reacting to their actions - or the lack of them. Bush could not be any clearer - nor could he have made me any prouder. I hope you're right, I hope Europe is willing to fight fire with fire. Timidity, a hallmark of the collective EU and many individual countries thus far, will serve no one except the terrorists. |
| Posted by: .com 2004-03-25 9:02:03 AM |
| #1 Europeans are not stupid. Europeans perceive this threat, and they will defend themselves against it. We may laugh about their committees and slow progress, but there should be no doubt that Europe will aggressively hunt and eventually crush the Moslem terrorists in Europe. Anyone can get hit by a sucker punch. The USA got hit by a sucker punch on September 11. Spain got hit by a sucker punch on March 11. The European Union's population is 380 million. They will not be defeated by several dozen small, secret groups of alien Moslem terrorists. . |
| Posted by: Mike Sylwester 2004-03-25 8:13:18 AM |