ALGERIA: Multiparty state with elected parliament and president. National Liberation Front, dominant party since independence from France 40 years ago, won 2002 parliamentary elections marred by violence. In 1991, fearing fundamentalist Islamic Salvation Front would be elected, army aborted final round of election and sparked bloody insurgency.
| The machinery of modern terrorism was perfected during the Algerian war for independence, and it's colored Algerian political life ever since. Can't get your way? Go underground and start slitting throats. |
BAHRAIN: Declared constitutional monarchy in 2002 as part of reforms that paved way for first legislative elections in 30 years. Women voted and ran in October election, which secularists narrowly won. Final authority on all matters still resides with king, Sheik Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa.
| A glorified sheikhdom that's got oil money and is trying to modernize without letting the rabble get too uppity. A strong strain of Islamism can always be found to slow any attempts at liberalization. |
EGYPT: President Hosni Mubarak took over from assassinated President Anwar Sadat in 1981. His security apparatus and National Democratic Party have almost absolute control over elected parliament. Mubarak stands every five years as only presidential candidate in yes-no referendums that always produce yes vote of more than 90 percent. Speculation persists Mubarak is grooming his son to replace him.
| A hereditary authoritarian presidency runs an unruly nation that has a strong Muslim Brotherhood presence. Egypt has no oil so it is called upon to actually produce something. To date that includes cotton and Islamists. The Islamists pooped in the national punchbowl by slaughtering tourists a few years ago, which further made matters worse by depressing the tourist industry. Home of al-Azhar University, AKA Fatwah Central. The Coptic minority is persecuted routinely. |
IRAQ: U.S.-led coalition to run country through June 30, when new Iraqi-run government replaces Saddam Hussein's 35-year dictatorship. Washington promises Iraq will be democracy, but history of repression and deep divisions in society will make that difficult.
| I don't think enough has been done to set up guarantees of personal liberty. Iraq is a good candidate for splintering into its historic north-south components, with possibly a central Sunni state if they can avoid causing their neighbors to slaughter them for their bad behavior and arrogance. |
JORDAN: King Abdullah II, who succeeded late father, King Hussein, has virtually absolute power but has pledged to transform kingdom into the "model of a democratic Arab Islamic state" that can serve as an example to other Middle East nations. He has abolished the Information Ministry that enforced censorship and put more women into government, but broader public freedoms are lacking. Political elite, conservative tribal leaders, would-be reformers and Islamic fundamentalists argue over direction of reform.
| A strong Islamist presence and plenty of resident Paleostinians impede Jordan's efforts toward modernity, as do its dependencies on trade with its neighbors. King Hussein was always trotted out at the "moderate, pro-Western" exemplar, until he threw in his lot with Sammy during GWI. Jordan has an historical claim to rule large parts of Arabia. |
KUWAIT: Politics controlled by emir, Sheik Jaber Al Ahmed Al Sabah, and family. Kuwait pioneer among Arabs in electing parliament, in 1963, but emir regularly dismisses national assemblies. Women barred from voting or running for office.
| Strong Islamist presence tries to counterbalance the Kuwaiti experience of actually having had demonstrated who their real friends are. When the country was occupied and looted in GWI the Arab League wrung its hands and dithered while the U.S. actually stepped in and did something. |
LEBANON: Elections regular and lively, but not open because of power-sharing agreement meant to prevent resurgence of 1975-90 sectarian civil war. Legislative seats apportioned equally to Christians and Muslims; prime minister must be Sunni Muslim, president Christian. Syria, dictatorship, wields great influence over Lebanese politics.
| A Syrian colony with no real independence. Large and unruly Paleostinian presence endangers the country's existence if the Syrians do go away. The native (non-Arab) Nabataean population is being suppressed and displaced by the Arabs. |
LIBYA: Muammar Gadhafi in absolute power since 1969 military coup.
| Muammar's an old-fashioned dictator, given to splashy uniforms and all-girl bodyguard squads. Libya should have lots of oil money, but Muammar wasted it on international adventurism. Claims not to be an hereditary autocracy, but Muammar hasn't yet died to prove it. He's smart enough to realize which way the wind is blowing and has changed sides. Whether the side-changing will extend to instituting personal liberties for Libyans remains to be seen. Has withdrawn from the Arab League and decided that Libya's an African country, rather than Arab. |
MOROCCO: King Mohammed VI appoints prime minister and members of government following legislative elections; can fire any minister, dissolve parliament, call for new elections, or rule by decree. Incumbent socialist party won September 2002 parliamentary elections praised as clean and fair. Conservative Islamic parties did well.
| Pretty liberal, as far as Arab countries go. Econmy has close ties with Spain. Targeted for an Islamist movement by al-Qaeda, but seemingly still in the formative stages. |
OMAN: Sultan Qaboos became ruler by overthrowing father in 1970. Family has ruled for about 250 years. In October, 2003, the country held its first elections open to all citizens for an advisory council. No political parties or elected legislature.
| Maintains a low profile and tries to avoid getting embroiled in controversy. No idea how strong the Islamist presence actually is. |
PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY: Yasser Arafat, under growing pressure to share power, appointed a prime minister in 2003 but Mahmoud Abbas' government collapsed in a dispute with Arafat over security control. The same disagreement nearly sank Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia's government, appointed in September, until Qureia gave in. Arafat essentially retains indirect control in many areas, including security.
| The Paleo Authority is a textbook kleptocracy, modeled on Baathism, but without the efficiency of Saddam Hussein or Syria's Assad. The PLO is secular and kinda-sorta Marxist, though they don't mention that part anymore. Real power in the PA rests with neighborhood Mister Bigs and with Hamas, which is the same thing but with religion. |
QATAR: Promising parliamentary elections after holding first municipal elections in 1999, with women fully participating. Famous as home of al-Jazeera satellite TV station, lambasted by Arab and Western governments for shows critical of governments. Qataris overwhelmingly voted in April 2003 for a new constitution that guarantees freedom of expression, religion, assembly and association. It also provides for a 45-member parliament, two-thirds of which will be elected and the rest appointed by the emir.
| Possibly the best model for Gulf liberalization, if the Islamists don't get it first. Jazeera's a pain in the nether regions, but that often happens with a free press. Qatar went so far as to pick a side in GWI, and is home to CENTCOM's regional HQ now that we've shaken the Soddy dust from our feet. |
SAUDI ARABIA: Crown Prince Abdullah rules on behalf of ailing King Fahd; no elected legislature. In sign royal family feeling pressure to reform, the Cabinet announced in October that Saudis will be able to vote in municipal elections. Government also recently set up a national human rights commission and let international rights monitors visit for first time.
| The model for princely kleptocracy. Soddy Arabia seems to have a phobia against individual liberty. Muslim religious minorities are oppressed, and all other religions are forbidden. Oil money goes into the pockets of the princes, to be pissed away on grandiose plans for world domination, with anything left over tossed as tips to the common folk. Home of the Learned Elders of Islam. |
SYRIA: President Bashar Assad wields near-absolute power, disappointing those who expected the young, Western-educated doctor to open up politics. Succeeded father, longtime dictator Hafez Assad, who died in 2000.
| Hereditary bloody-handed dictatorship in the hands of a Junior who's not the man his father was. Syria's bellicose stance and its harboring of terrorists makes it an international pariah and a prime candidate for dismantling. |
SUDAN: President Omar el-Bashir in power since 1989 coup. Recently moved to lessen influence of fundamentalist Islamic leaders, but democratic reform not on agenda.
| An incompetent bloody-handed dictator who spends most of his time on ethnic cleansing and breaking peace agreements with rebel movements. The model for Sudan is more Subsaharan than Arab, despite the influence of Islamists in Khartoum. |
TUNISIA: Republic dominated by single party, Constitutional Democratic Assembly, since independence from France in 1956. Opposition parties allowed since 1981.
| A secular state that tries to keep its native Islamists in check. No appreciable oil money to loot, so the citizens tend to get jobs. |
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Federation of states, each controlled by own emir and family.
| All personality-driven, with Dubai as the development model. |
YEMEN: President Ali Abdullah Saleh presides over largely feudal society. Despite constitution, elected parliament and lively press, power rests with military and tribes.
| A hopeless dog's breakfast of primitives, approximately as civilized as Pashtunistan. Tribal basis of society prevents progress. Yemen's not swimming in oil, so they actually have to produce something. The primary export is guys with bandoliers. |
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