| Submit your comments on this article | |
| Afghanistan/South Asia | |
| Musharraf finalising the restructure of Pakistan | |
| 2004-04-25 | |
| Musharraf whipping Pakistan into (US) line High-level officials familiar with government thinking have told Asia Times Online that both administrative and political restructuring will begin in the coming weeks to further bolster the country against "traditional forces". Musharraf, who came to power in a military coup in 1999, has agreed to step down as chief of the army by December 2004, but before that several changes will be implemented. Meanwhile, on April 14, a National Security Council was approved by parliament that allows the military a legally sanctioned role in governance. *The unification process of all pro-Musharraf parties has started. In the first phase (minus the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz Group) all Pakistan Muslim League (PML) factions have been united. Now, in the second phase, another pro-government grouping, the National Alliance, is being merged with the PML. The PML was split up into about a half dozen warring factions during the last period of democracy, and the National Alliance consists of another half dozen political parties with limited followings. But they all see that there will be rewards for them to be within the government. The logic of gathering all these minor players together is probably that each of them has a small following, so a dozen of them all supporting Musharraf will bring in lots of support. But it probably isn’t a good recipe for stability. *By October, two full generals, including General Aziz Khan, will retire. Two officers will therefore be promoted, and one of them will fill the vacated vice chief of army staff position, most likely present Corps Commander Lahore, Lieutenant-General Shahid Aziz. Shahid is a relative of Musharraf and has been given fast-track promotion throughout his career. Aziz Khan is the most prominent Jihadi General, and when he retires he will probably start speaking his mind and hanging out with Hamid Gul. *After achieving these primary targets, the consolidated PML and then the federal cabinet will appeal to the president that, in the broader national interest, he should not shed his uniform. The president will comply, but with a twist: he will accept the title of field marshal, and give the chief of army position to the trusted Shahid Aziz, and increase the powers of the president with relation to military appointments. The Field Marshsal rumor has been around for a while. In this way, Musharraf will retain his grip at the helm, and will continue in reshaping Pakistan-Afghanistan and Pakistan-Indian relations in line with US interests. To achieve this, Musharraf will have to win over large sections of the grass-root electorate. Already, the powerful rural base of Punjab (the largest province) , which used to be the source of power of the ruling PML - Nawaz group, has been won over to the PML-Quaid-i-Azam group, a pro-Musharraf party. The remaining power pillars of Punjab and North West Frontier Province are dominated by the Pakistan People’s Party led by former premier Benazir Bhutto, now organized under the Patroit group and the Sherpao group, both pro-Musharraf parties. All independent "feudal lords" who once dominated national politics, like former president Farooq Laghari and former interim prime minister Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi, have been united under the National Alliance, a pro-Musharraf group. And all these will be gathered under the umbrella of the PML, whose leadership will eventually go to Musharraf. Getting the Feudals onside is probably more important for the continuation of the current rule then merging a hundred different meaningless parties, and I would expect an attempt to merge the pro-Musharraf Pakistan People’s Party splinters to follow soon. Effectively, the mainstream political parties will be turned into compliant horses. The only potential counterforce is the alliance of six religious parties, the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal, but since the death of its president, Maulana Shah Ahmed Noorani, it has been seriously weakened. Of its real election force, the factions of the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam are essentially passive towards Musharraf, which leaves only the Jamaat-i-Islami as a stand-alone challenge. Essentially Pakistan will become Russia, with Musharraf as Putin, the new Pakistan Muslim League will be all things to all people United Russia, and Fazl will play the roll of Vladimir Zhironovsky, the extremist rabble-rouser who remains loyal to the system. Like Russia, the system will be run by the siloviki, serving and retired Generals who will be given even more control of the economy, who will be played off against the oligarchs, the feudal lords who support the government. There will probably be some liberals dealing with the economy too.
So I would guess that the Afghanistan and Kashmir Jihad’s will continue, being calibrated depending upon the prevailing political conditions. The foreign terrorists might be eliminated if it can be done easily, but I would expect Lashkar-e-Taiba et al to continue business as usual. | |
| Posted by:Paul Moloney |
| #1 Fascinating. Thanks Paul. |
| Posted by: someone 2004-04-25 4:55:42 AM |