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| Iraq-Jordan |
| WaPo on possible Fallujah deal |
| 2004-04-30 |
| More on how and if this will go down; the rest chopped. A bit long anyway, sorry. The surprise agreement in Fallujah, which was authorized by Marine Lt. Gen. James T. Conway, is intended to give more responsibility to Iraqis for subduing the city while attempting defuse tensions by pulling Marines back from front-line positions. But some U.S. military and civilian officials privately expressed concern that Conway's strategy involves too hasty a retreat and relies too heavily on Iraqis whose combat skills and allegiances have not been fully examined. Yup. It is not clear whether Conway conveyed the terms of the deal to his superiors in Baghdad and at the Pentagon, or even to leaders of the U.S. occupation authority. One person familiar with the deal said it took senior U.S. military and civilian officials in Baghdad by surprise. Because of the apparent lack of consultation, some officials said elements of the agreement, particularly the speedy troop withdrawal, may be tempered by the Pentagon or by the U.S. Central Command. There has to be a sane person somewhere. "It's very confusing right now," a senior Pentagon official said. "There's a disconnect here and we can't figure it out." The Pentagon's chief spokesman, Larry DiRita, said Marine commanders have considerable authority to negotiate deals within certain "broad objectives," including bringing to justice those Iraqis responsible for the killing and mutilation in Fallujah of four civilian U.S. security contractors. The objectives involve ensuring that Fallujah is not "left in the hands of the former regime elements and whoever else" is in league with them. Makes sense. Now here's the kicker: Under the deal, Marine battalions stationed in and around Fallujah will begin pulling away from the city over the next several days. In addition to giving up front-line positions inside Fallujah -- some of which were gained only after Marines suffered significant casualties during fighting this month -- the Marines also will lift their cordon around the city of 200,000. !!! Ahmed Hardan, a physician who led a group of Fallujah residents in earlier negotiations with U.S. forces, said on the al-Arabiya that the latest deal calls for U.S. troops to move out of the city's southern neighborhoods by early Saturday and to leave the northern part of Fallujah (where the baddies are) beginning Sunday. Of course, everything you hear on al-Arabiya is true... The Fallujah Protection Army will be subordinate to the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force and report directly to Conway. The deal also could exploit any divisions among Sunni insurgents in the city, which appear to be growing, according to Marine officers. Having them shoot each other would be nice. But we should still stick around and shoot whomever's left. |
| Posted by:someone |
| #2 This policy of negotiation is retarded. Negotiation only works where there is good faith. If we pull out, they claim a victory of driving us out. As long as their leadership has a reasonable chance of increasing their power (and surviving) the situation will continue. Furthermore it inspires other opposition leaders. The best strategy is to alienate the support groups for these people. Having your city leveled is a powerful disinclination. |
| Posted by: flash91 2004-04-30 12:24:18 PM |
| #1 IMHO, its way too soon to say what this means. 48 hours wont be adequate. Several questions 1. Was this really all done by Gen. Conway, as is being reported. He didnt get ANY signoff form Bremer, let alone from Washington? Despite previous indications that Bush was following the situation in Fallujah personally??? 2. The press has reported USMC promises to withdraw? What, if anything, did the local tribal sheiks et al promise in return? 3. Who does Conway think the insurgents are? Are they mainly fedayeen Saddam and foreigners, who will fight to the bitter end, and make life hell for the FPA, or try to turn the FPA? Or are they local unemployed, thugs, etc who can be bought off, and who will "dissolve" Or are they divided as the article above states, and is playing on there divisions really the key here? 4. Who the hell are the FPA? Wretchard reports they are Iraqis being trained in Jordan, with Australian help, and included Shiites and Kurds as well as Sunni Arabs. Other reports indicate many are locals from Fallujah. If we want a reliable force we want one of well trained outsiders, including lots on Shiites and Kurds. OTOH if we want to make nicey nice with the locals we want lots of locals. Presumably the force included both, to achieve both aims. Not clear how this will play out. 5. What are the goals for the FPS and the "cooperative" local notables? While folks here are going to focus on arresting the perps of the bridge outrage, in fact the USMC priorities are likely more on clearing out heavy weapons, and destroying IED/bomb factories. Apparently Fallujah was the Command control and supply center for the insurgency throughout west and central Iraq, and that was why containment was a mistake. Assuming that dealing with that can be accomplished, this may be largely focused on improving the political situation around the country. NYT reports consensus between US and Brahimi on an Iraqi PM, a secular leaning Shiite acceptable to Sistani. And on annex to the Transitional Law that would make clear no further concessions to the Kurds prior to elections - this would win Sistanis support for the transition. It is said a Kurd (!!!!!) will be appointed new head of the Iraqi army. ISTM that the admin is looking for a big WIN on the political front soon (see also the Najaf Shia turning on Sadr) and they are desperate to put Fallujah on the back burner till thats done. We can always go back in and deal with Fallujah later. FPA= Fallujah Postponement Army |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-04-30 9:45:30 AM |