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| Southeast Asia |
| Backlash feared if Arroyo wins |
| 2004-05-08 |
| Philippine officials are warning of a violent backlash as opinion polls point to a comfortable victory for President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in Monday's national elections. The National Security Adviser, Roberto Gonzales, has claimed opposition activists are plotting an uprising to sabotage the election and stop Dr Arroyo being returned to power. But supporters of the leading opposition presidential candidate, Fernando Poe, have accused the Government of scaremongering and preparing to rig the election. The latest survey published by Pulse Asia this week shows Dr Arroyo - who was trailing Mr Poe in the polls for months - pulling further ahead with 37 per cent against 31 per cent for the former action movie hero. Victory would give Dr Arroyo another six years as president and the mandate she has coveted since being drafted to power by a popular uprising in early 2001 that topped President Joseph Estrada, now on trial for corruption. Despite her patchy record in office, Dr Arroyo has run a slick and effective campaign, while Mr Poe's campaign has been undermined by divisions within the opposition ranks, lack of funding and the failure of the populist political novice to articulate credible policy alternatives. Dr Arroyo's prospects have been boosted by the late endorsement of two national religious movements said to influence the voting of millions. But the powerful Catholic Church, which played a vital role in toppling the Estrada administration, has refused to take sides. The elections will also choose a new Congress, replace half the Senate and decide thousands of provincial and municipal posts. At a news conference on Thursday, Mr Gonzales - a senior cabinet member - said opposition activists, including retired and serving army officers, were plotting to wreck the likely victory by Dr Arroyo with a campaign of bombings and civil unrest. He said the plot was designed to paralyse the economy, stir a popular uprising and persuade the armed forces and the international community "to recognise the opposition candidate as the legitimate president." But a statement issued by the opposition accused the Government of conducting a smear campaign and "setting the stage for massive election cheating." The Senate Speaker, Jose Venezia, also warned earlier this week of a "Madrid scenario", in which terrorist groups angered by Dr Arroyo's pro-US policies would stage attacks in Manila similar to the March 11 train bombings that presaged the election defeat of Spain's conservative government. Mr Venezia, an ally of Dr Arroyo, claimed intelligence agencies had evidence that "local extremists under foreign principals" were plotting a series of "spectacular" attacks. "It appears there is a move to perpetrate terrorist acts before or during the elections," he said. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #9 Actually Zenster is right about Singapore. Its one of those situations where direct experience is misleading. I live in Singapore and almost every Singaporean I know who professes a religion is a Christian, but thats because middle class english speaking chinese are predominantly christian. Heres a link if you are interested. |
| Posted by: Phil B 2004-05-08 8:45:54 PM |
| #8 sorry about the LOL! - but I've been dvorced..good luck, everyone....you all will need it :-) |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-05-08 5:19:57 PM |
| #7 Ever been divorced Zenster? If not you're getting a good preview. Bwahahahahahahahahaha!!! Thank you, last fury of the day, I needed a really good belly laugh this afternoon. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2004-05-08 5:03:49 PM |
| #6 Ever been divorced Zenster? If not you're getting a good preview. |
| Posted by: last fury of the day 2004-05-08 3:30:26 PM |
| #5 Quite the geo-political whiz kid, aren't you, Zipmeister? |
| Posted by: Jen 2004-05-08 12:38:02 PM |
| #4 Phil B, By "Asia" I was referring to the "mini-dragons" of the Pacific rim. It is far from clear that Christianity is dominant in the Oriental countries you mention. While up to date statistics are not easy to locate, the percentages found in the those I provide here tend to reflect the more pervasive breakdowns among other East Asian populations. Perhaps you might provides some cites for your assertions as well. According to government statistics, 42.6 percent or more than 17 million of South Korea's 1985 population professed adherence to an organized religious community. There were at least 8 million Buddhists (about 20 percent of the total population), about 6.5 million Protestants (16 percent of the population), some 1.9 million Roman Catholics (5 percent), nearly 500,000 people who belonged to Confucian groups (1 percent), and more than 300,000 others (0.7 percent). In 1988 the [Singapore] Ministry of Community Development reported the religious distribution to be 28.3 percent Buddhist, 18.7 percent Christian, 17.6 percent no religion, 16 percent Islam, 13.4 percent Daoist, 9 percent Hindu, and 1.1 percent other religions (Sikhs, Parsis, Jews). The Christian proportion of the population nearly doubled between 1980 and 1988, growing from 10 percent to nearly 19 percent. The growth of Christianity and of those professing no religion was greatest in the Chinese community, with most of the Christian converts being young, well-educated people in secure white-collar and professional jobs. Most converts joined evangelical and charismatic Protestant churches worshiping in English. About one-third of the members of Parliament were Christians, as were many cabinet ministers and members of the ruling party, which was dominated by well-educated, Englishspeaking Chinese. The association of Christianity with elite social and political status may have helped attract some converts. [Singapore] religious affiliation: Buddhist 28%; Muslim 15%; Christian 13%; Taoist 13%; Hindu 4%; other (non religious included) 27% East Timor and Papua New Guinea are not major players on the rim and will not be for some time. Having been to Armenia for its celebration of 1,400 years of Christianity, it seems much more a part of southern Europe than Asia per se. Apart from your contentions about Asiatic religious statistics, what do you think of the actual issues facing the Philippines, Phil B? Disputing a peripheral point does not disprove the bulk of my observations. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2004-05-08 12:29:57 PM |
| #3 As the sole Christian nation in Asia Zenster get your facts right. There are a number of Christian majority states in Asia, Including S. Korea, Singapore, East Timor, PNG and of course Russia, Georgia and Armenia. Otherwise this is the Sydney Morning Herald, and although the largest circulation daily in Australia, its recent editorial policy has verged on the bizzare. |
| Posted by: Phil B 2004-05-08 6:41:43 AM |
| #2 Arroyo's reelection is of great overall significance. Out of the entire field of candidates, she alone has the education to steer the Philippines through the perilous course confronting it. As the sole Christian nation in Asia, her country faces unique and substantial challenges. The MILF and Abu Sayyaf represent extremely destabilizing influences upon the country's already reeling economy. Agrarian reform, a key issue in overcoming critical socio-economic logjams that have rendered recent progress moribund requires a comprehensive understanding of political issues which Arroyo's opponent, Fernando J. Poe (called "FJP"), has absolutely no experience with. Visions of renewed cronyism akin to that which prevailed in the Marcos and Estrada eras have already sent jitters through the Philippine stock market and affected currency exchange rates as well. Speculation abounds with rumors of military coups fueled by potential popular dissatisfaction with a FJP loss. Sadly, political patronage is still a fact of life and misconduct by the First Gentleman has served to damage public perception and hobble the effectiveness of Macapagal's administration. None of this outweighs the Philippines' dire need for skilled leadership at present. Poe does not hold forth a lot of promise regarding political reform nor does he evoke much confidence for those abroad regarding the war on terror. The readily anticipated cronyism resulting from Poe's election could just as easily compromise military operations and internal security as trapos sought once again to wet their beaks in the government trough. Arroyo currently enjoys a solid 7% lead over her rival, Poe. Let all of us hope that she prevails in the coming election. Failure by her to regain the presidency could bode ill in many quarters besides just Asia. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2004-05-08 3:31:36 AM |
| #1 This article eerily echoes the US campaign season's shrill tenor. These will occur on May 10th... Here's the link to the world Election Guide: http://www.ifes.org/eguide/2004.htm |
| Posted by: .com 2004-05-08 1:58:06 AM |