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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Iran’s Mullahs Losing Their Will to Control the Population |
| 2004-05-17 |
| ... if it [Iran] were an efficient police state, it might survive. But it’s not. It cracks down episodically, tossing dissidents in prison and occasionally even murdering them (like a Canadian-Iranian journalist last year). But Iran doesn’t control information — partly because satellite television is ubiquitous, if illegal — and people mostly get away with scathing criticism as long as they do not organize against the government. The embarrassing point for us is that while Iran is no democracy, it has a much freer society than many of our allies in the Middle East. In contrast with Saudi Arabia, for example, Iran has (rigged) elections, and two of its vice presidents are women. The Iranian press is not as free as it was a few years ago, but it is now bolstered by blogs (Web logs) and satellite TV, which offer real scrutiny of government officials. I was astonished that everywhere I went in Iran, people would immediately tell me their names and agree to be photographed — and then say something like, "There is no freedom here." All this means, I think, that the Iranian regime is destined for the ash heap of history. An unpopular regime can survive if it is repressive enough, but Iran’s hard-liners don’t imprison their critics consistently enough to instill terror. Pet dogs, for example, are strongly discouraged in Iran as dirty and contrary to Islam, and traffic police regularly arrest dogs and their owners. But the number of pet dogs is multiplying, and Tehran now has dozens of veterinary clinics. ... In the end, I find Iran a hopeful place. Ordinary people are proving themselves irrepressible, and they will triumph someday and forge a glistening example of a Muslim country that is a pro-American democracy in the Middle East. I treasure a memory from the airport: after I was detained, a security goon X-rayed my bags for the second time and puzzled over my computer equipment. He snarled at me, "American reporters — bad!" The X-ray operator, who perhaps didn’t know quite what was going on, beamed at me and piped up, "Americans — very good!" |
| Posted by:Mike Sylwester |
| #6 traffic police regularly arrest dogs Hey, that's unfair and uncalled for. 'sides how could they know under a burqa? |
| Posted by: eLarson 2004-05-17 3:40:53 PM |
| #5 Let's hope it happens soon. The mullahs are months away from their first nuclear weapon and they're on record that it would be their religious duty to use it against Israel as soon as they obtain it. If Iran's nuclear program is left unchecked, this needs to happen in the next 18-24 months or the entire Middle East go up in flames. |
| Posted by: AzCat 2004-05-17 11:49:13 AM |
| #4 traffic police regularly arrest dogs Think about this. They probably have "red-light cameras" in Iran, and the cops are bored. |
| Posted by: BigEd 2004-05-17 11:11:38 AM |
| #3 Mike, let's hope it falls from within and stonger action down the road is not required. Recall the type of suicidal madmen we are dealing with. |
| Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-05-17 10:31:07 AM |
| #2 It might happen rather peacefully, as it happened in the Soviet Union and East Europe (except Romania). |
| Posted by: Mike Sylwester 2004-05-17 9:56:52 AM |
| #1 One can hope for an end to the Mullarchy but there are profound questions about how this can happen. 1. there is no organized opposition; no means of maintaining civil order after the mullarchy falls; there are a lot of groups with some, but not much power- the army, the mullah controlled goon squads, Palestinian mercenaries; what can keep these groups from freelance violence if the mullarchy falls 2. there is a lot of pent up anti-Mullah (and anti Islam)rage; while anyone can sympathize with this, the rage could generate violence with thousands of innocents being hurt or killed in the abscence of civil order |
| Posted by: mhw 2004-05-17 9:33:32 AM |