The world's largest-ever election in India produced not only the biggest upset in Indian politics but also an unparalleled spectacle of the winning alliance leader deciding, on second thought, to be the kingmaker rather than the king.
In the process, the Italian-born Sonia Gandhi has positioned herself in a win-win situation. By first getting her party's lawmakers and allied parties to support her bid to be prime minister and then, three days later, deciding not to take the top job in the world's largest democracy, Gandhi has won many hearts and put herself in a firm position to cash in on her sacrifice in the future.
The high drama in New Delhi left an impression that Gandhi's U-turn was linked to pressure from two quarters - her two adult children, supposedly concerned about her safety, and the defeated Hindu nationalists, who had raked up controversy anew over her foreign origin. In reality, however, Gandhi's volte-face appears a canny, calculated move. It took her a few days to make up her mind because she never expected the election result to throw up an opportunity for her Indian National Congress party to form a coalition government.
There are several reasons for Gandhi's decision. The election, despite the defeat of the Hindu nationalist-led government, produced no clear verdict, giving her Congress party only 145 seats in the 545-seat Parliament. Although several smaller parties are allied with Congress, Gandhi suffered two setback in recent days: First an important regional ally, the DMK party, and then the Communists, decided not to join her government but to extend issue-based support from outside. (On Wednesday the DMK reversed its decision and joined the Congress-led coalition.)
Rather than head a shaky government buffeted by pressure from outside allies and unable to deliver on its election promises, Gandhi decided shrewdly to take a rain check.
This maneuver fits well with Gandhi's ambition to make her son, Rahul Gandhi, assume the mantle of the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty. Rahul still needs several years of political grooming before he can assume a leadership role within the party.
| "Just be patient, my son. All this will be yours." |
Moreover, Gandhi calculated that if she can be the real power wielder in India even without being in the government, she should decline to be the prime minister.
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Gandhi is the supreme, unchallenged leader of the Congress party, an organization that since independence has been associated with the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. After Jawaharlal Nehru, his daughter, Indira Gandhi, and Indira's son, Rajiv Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi - Rajiv's widow - is the fourth member of India's most famous family to lead the party. Two were assassinated - Indira Gandhi in 1984, and Rajiv Gandhi in 1991.
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Such is the present power of Sonia Gandhi over the party that she can dictate not only the choice of prime minister but also of the other important members of the cabinet.
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