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Iraq-Jordan
Turkey prepares for the potential partition of Iraq and Kurdish self-rule
2004-05-19
If true, this is going to rattle some cages in the Arab world.
Influential Turks Urge Embracing Self-Rule Of Iraqi Kurdistan
By HUGH POPE and BILL SPINDLE Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
The deteriorating situation in Iraq is eroding a powerful taboo in its strongest neighbor, Turkey. For the first time, influential Turks are daring to countenance the emergence of a strongly autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan on its southern border -- and urging that Turkey should embrace it. If carried out, that would amount to a reversal of Turkish policy, complicate the task of the U.S. or any new rulers in Baghdad and worry neighboring states such as Syria and Iran, which have their own ambitions and fears with regard to a breakup of Iraq. "There is now debate in Turkey about putting an [Iraqi Kurdish] buffer between Turkey and a potentially ’Islamic’ Iraq," said Faruk Demir, chief executive of Ankara’s Center for Advanced Strategy.
I don't see how that complicates things for us. Makes it simpler, really. Whether the Kurds get their own state or not, it's a good club to thump the Arabs with. And my own preference is that they do get their own state. They've made a go of their corner, while the other parties have been clutching their Korans and screwing things up just as fast as they can.
Turkey long has argued that strengthening the autonomy of the 3.5 million Kurds in northern Iraq would act as a destabilizing model for its own 12 million ethnic Kurds, as well as the five million Kurds in Iran and the two million in Syria. Indeed, Syrian Kurds rioted in March, some of them calling for statehood, and three weeks ago President Bashar al-Assad labeled any ethnic federation in Iraq as "dangerous." Arab Iraqis feel that encouragement of greater Kurdish autonomy will tear apart their country, and many U.S. officials share that concern. In Turkey, however, Mr. Demir recently broke new ground with an article arguing that Turkey should assume the role of "big brother" to the region’s Kurds and become their route to the outside world. Turkish officials also are beginning to overcome their suspicions of Iraqi Kurds, he said. He described discussions about building on a relatively successful decade of cooperation with Iraqi Kurds against Turkish Kurd rebels, expanding the commercial possibilities of northern Iraq and preparing a backup plan in case Iraq splits up.

The increasingly autonomy-minded Iraqi Kurds are warming to the Turks, just in case they one day should need protection against Iraq’s Arab majority. "I need Turkey. I believe Turkey needs us," said Barham Saleh, prime minister of the eastern Iraqi Kurdish canton run by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, where Turkish companies now are building a big airport, constructing university campuses and laying roads. "We love the Americans, we want them to stay forever, but we know they won’t. We live in this tough neighborhood."

Turkish officials privately confirm that a discussion has begun about whether to offer protection to the Iraqi Kurds as a policy to keep refugees and other troubles away from Turkey’s border if the U.S. can’t control Iraq. "Nothing has been decided yet, and it’s not what we want. We can’t give up on the hope of Iraq’s unity. If you start playing with borders, there’ll be no end to it," said one Turkish official. Still, a Turkish protectorate "could result in practice. It could be a kind of insurance policy." Such a policy still is some way off. Some Turkish generals insist Kurdish self-rule could destabilize Turkey. The western region run by the Kurdistan Democratic Party is demanding that Turkey withdraw a garrison from its main city, Irbil. Turkey and the KDP also argue about taxes on Turkish trucks heading into Arab areas of Iraq.

Nevertheless, the mere fact that Turkey is considering helping Iraqi Kurdistan reflects a reality that has been developing on the ground. Much of Turkey’s $1 billion, or €832.5 million, a year trade with Iraq is channeled through the Kurds of northern Iraq, and Turkish companies dominate Iraqi Kurdish markets. Along the roads of Iraqi Kurdistan, advertisements for Turkish air conditioners and refrigerators stretch from the Syrian to the Iranian borders. The main Turkish military checkpoint on the Turkish-Iraqi border was removed this year. Iraqi Kurdish leaders now are well-known and welcomed here in Turkey’s capital. Turkey has even downsized a relationship with ethnic Turkoman groups through which it unsuccessfully tried to influence events in northern Iraq in the 1990s.

The Turks "understand that something is going to happen in northern Iraq. They won’t like it but will attempt to control it by cooperating with KDP and PUK," said Gareth Stansfield, a Middle East expert at Britain’s Exeter University who recently visited Kirkuk, a flashpoint claimed by both Kurds and Arabs. "Ankara has let the Turkoman go somewhat," he said. "The Turkomans are in a sorry state politically, and their militia is poor and run down." Ilnur Cevik, a Turkish newspaper columnist who favors stronger ties with the Iraqi Kurds, turned contractor to build a $38 million international airport for Mr. Saleh’s PUK. For years, he said, the Turkish-Iraqi Kurdish relationship was dominated by the Turkish military, which was keen to crush Turkish Kurd rebels who took refuge in the mountains along the border. Now that the rebellion has subsided -- although 5,000 Turkish Kurd guerrillas remain in northern Iraq -- he said the pro-Islamic government that took power in Turkey in November 2002 wants to tackle such problems in greater partnership with the Iraqi Kurds. "The Kurds are now a reality, and they are the Americans’ friend in Iraq. If you need a problem fixed, the Kurds are there," he said, noting that Ankara sent unprecedented messages of condolence after suicide bombings hit both Iraqi Kurdish leaderships on Feb. 1, and treated casualties in Turkish hospitals for free.

Just last year, the KDP canton warned it would fight hard against any attempt by the Turkish army to enter its territory, a threat Turkey began to take seriously after seeing the difficulties even the U.S. has had in Iraq. Now Nechirwan Barzani, the KDP premier, says the two sides are turning over a new leaf. "Turkey has changed its policy. The government talks to us in a language that is more useful and logical. We want the language of business, not that of fear," he said. "We prefer Turkey to the others."
Posted by:Zhang Fei

#9  do it Georgie, do it.
Posted by: B   2004-05-20 7:28:32 AM  

#8  Super news! I think a separate Kurdistan would be a win-win-win for the Kurds, the US, and Turkey.

Bremer's dream of a unified democratic Iraq is totally impractical-too many years of tribal/religious bad blood between the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds.

As others have remarked, the Sunnis and Shiites will be living the same regressive violent hellish lives 100 years from now as they are today and as they did 100 years ago. Whereas the Kurds, who were left with the clothes on their backs because of Saddam's genocidal evil ways, still managed to make the best use of what they had left and ended up developing a nice little civilized country the past 15 years in the "no-fly" zone. The Kurds are our best hope for a pro-West gov't in Iraq.

And what's perfect poetic justice... with a separate Kurdistan the best undeveloped oil AND gas resouces in Iraq are in located in KURDISTAN so that leaves the Sunnis and Shiites with the rump of Iraq. yuk, yuk

A year before the Iraq invasion, Saddam had signed contracts with Totalfinaelf and a Russian oil firm to drill for oil in the Kurdish area, but so sad, too bad, Saddam got deposed so I guess the contracts, they are meaningless now.

So many possibilities with a separate Kurdistan, for them and for us geopolitically and economically. I'm sure the Kurds would love for us to build a mega big military base there to protect them [and Turkey] from the barbaric hordes in Shiite and Sunni Iraq.

And best of all, we could pull our GI's out of the killing fields in Sunni/Shiite Iraq and have them positioned with ACTUAL MUSLIM ALLIES WHO APPRECIATE our military, how's that for a change?

And if Sunni and Shiite Iraq fall under the influence of Al Queda or other Bad Boys, alas, on the bright side, it would make for a nice straight forward target for our missile launchers based in Kurdistan. And last but not least it would be good if we would show some appreciation to the Kurds for their consistent support instead of taking their loyalty for granted and bending over backwards trying to accomodate the ungrateful Sunnis and Shiites.

And if we helped the Kurds develop their oil and gas resources...I guess we wouldn't need to depend on Saudi Arabia so much - another group of back stabbing Muslims I'd like the US to back away from.

I sure hope the WH finally wakes up and smells the roses in Kurdistan. It's time to move away from the smelly camel dung in Sunni/Shiite Iraq.

Posted by: rex   2004-05-20 2:01:30 AM  

#7  DBT has got it wrong. Its the BJP thats anti-Wahabi/anti-Khomenei. Congress is old-fashioned socialists.
Posted by: Phil B   2004-05-19 11:55:19 PM  

#6  RWV - Where in the hell did you get the idea that Not Bright Troll could think clearly, no matter what time of day it is?
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2004-05-19 11:49:17 PM  

#5  DBT, it's too late at night for such silliness. Take two aspirin, drink a beer, and try again in the morning when you're thinking more clearly. Right now you just sound like MBD dba DBT.
Posted by: RWV   2004-05-19 11:30:52 PM  

#4  I have long supported an autonomous Kurdistan, with ties to liberal-Muslim Turkey, and commitments to protect Turkemen, Assyrian and Christian minorities.

However, George Walker Bush is owned by Saudi Arabia, which does not want a Turkish hand in the deep oil wells of Kurdish Iraq. A hardline anti-Wahabi/anti-Khomenei Congress could force the Texas idiot's hand. But they won't as long as mental slaves attribute public purpose to the Texas crook.

As soon as it sinks into your filtered minds, that GWB spent $150,000,000,000 on a bill of goods, you will see why that crook has to get out of the way. Only Congress can save America from that man's stupidity.

Critics: tell us exactly what are GWB's working objectives in Iraq? If you can't put up, then shut up. The I-want-to-be-part-of-something-big-even-as-a-kiss-ass mentality has to go. The indulgence of GWB's apology for legitimate interrogation techniques should have collapsed his support.
Posted by: Dog Bites Trolls   2004-05-19 11:21:37 PM  

#3  Looks to me like the Turks and the Kurds are being smart. Guess it proves the crazyness across the ME isn't caused by something in the water.
Posted by: Phil B   2004-05-19 11:13:16 PM  

#2  If Turkey can see the practical benefits of working with the Kurds, they could be strengthened. It would work well both ways. The Kurds made something of themselves while being under the no-fly zone umbrella for years. The Shiites in Iraq are going to do nothing but stab everyone but themselves in the back (maybe themselves, too!) while they build their scalp cutting heaven on earth, so they will amount to nothing. If the US can do ops in the western desert against Syria and Saudi, with Kurds to the north, we will have still atchieved some strategic goals.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2004-05-19 11:12:59 PM  

#1  This is one of the more hopeful things that I have read recently. Murat notwithstanding, most Turks I have known have been very practical people. This makes sense and in the long run would be very profitable for Turkey, particularly if they can influence the idea of Greater Kurdistan to focus on Syria and Iran for the next few years. This is a real possibility if we decide to set the Kurds free from the anchor that is Arab Iraq.
Posted by: RWV   2004-05-19 11:10:50 PM  

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