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Arabia
Saudi royals, Islamic state to stay: spokesman
2004-06-18
(This guy has been out in the Arabian sun for toooooo long)
SEATTLE - Saudi Arabia is introducing political and social reforms but it will remain a monarchy committed to Islam, a spokesman for the country’s US embassy said on Thursday. Nail Al Jubeir, information director for the Saudi embassy, said in a speech to the Seattle World Affairs Council that some of those outside the country calling for reform wanted a separation of church and state. “That’s like ... saying ’the Vatican is a state and the seat of the Catholic church. We’ve got to separate them’,” he said. “You are going to have a pope for your political issues and a pope (that) deals with the religious issues and the two shall never meet. It’s not going to happen,” Jubeir said.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter and the birthplace of Islam, has launched a program of cautious reforms including municipal elections later this year. De facto ruler Crown Prince Abdullah has promised the reform process is unstoppable, but also warned the kingdom would not be embarking on “reckless adventures.” Saudi Arabia is battling a tide of violence linked to Islam Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda network which wants to topple its pro-US rulers and turn it into an even stricter Islamic state. Jubeir ruled out any abdication by the royal family. ”People look at the king and the royal family as a symbol of national unity,” he said.
Five years, outside.
Posted by:Mark Espinola

#5  I think that he is very far from reality.
Posted by: Super Hose   2004-06-18 10:22:15 PM  

#4  I am underwhelmed. :-(
Posted by: .com   2004-06-18 10:02:24 PM  

#3  Dr - I'd bet my retirement fund that the US has, at least, a few different plans for how to secure the oil if the "Saudis fall" - I put that in quotes because there are obviously various forms of this - with differing probabilities. I'll start a list - everyone should pile on with their own, then we'll see how it pays out... First, the possibilities, and everyone can say what they think each will "mean" regards a US response.

1) The House of Saud "falls" - all of the Royals bail out and leave it to the Wahhabi freaks created in the last 30 yrs.

2) The "pro-Western" Princes (that sounds absurd because, well, because it is, heh) bail out - leaving it to Nayef, Turki, Wahhabists, Tame AlQ???, etc. The post-House of Saud pecking order is created / accepted without further serious conflict. One of these entities is in charge and the others kow-tow.

3) Bona-fide Saudi civil war breaks out, but The Royals, both groups in the divided House of Saud, decide to stay and try to save their game.

4) The House of Saud "falls" and all pro-Western Princes bail - and Nayef / Turki try to hang one but find themselves in full civil war with AlQ types. #2 without the post-fall harmony.

I don't know if this one makes any sense, since I believe Nayef has just "won" the battle of The Seven:
5) The "pro-Western" faction of the House of Saud "wins" and Nayef / Turki faction(s) either runs off or is eliminated in a coup by Abdullah's faction.

I guess the question of continued jihadi activity or even civil war against Abdullah's faction continues after #5 by default.

Well, see any other major situation?

And the results for any of these situations? Which ones invite intervention, or do all do so?

I can post what I think, but I'd rather hear from others for a change!
Posted by: .com   2004-06-18 6:25:05 PM  

#2  The more I read, the more I become convinced that the Saudis are going down, and probably sooner than later. Only question is, will we move to stop the Islamic nutcases (redundant, I know) from taking/destroying the oil? .com, what's your take on this?
Posted by: The Doctor   2004-06-18 6:06:52 PM  

#1  Not a good idea to bring up Pope and catholics, although both have their share of perverts.
Posted by: Capt America   2004-06-18 4:35:44 PM  

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