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Futures: Missed on that one...

2004-06-20

Event: Bin Laden confirmed dead
Group:
Narrative: Is Osama no longer with us? Is he "pushing up daisy cutters," as Mark Steyn put it? Are his earthly remains decomposing at the bottom of a cave somewhere in Tora Bora? It sure seems that way, given that there has been no recent video of him, and no audio statement referring to anything that has happened in the last year with any specificity.
Window: 0 Months (6/20/2004)
Probability 75% entered by Mike on 9/24/2003
Probability 50% entered by tu3031 on 9/25/2003
Probability 75% entered by Fred on 9/25/2003
Probability 30% entered by Shipman on 9/26/2003
Probability 80% entered by Steve White on 9/27/2003
Probability 80% entered by R. McLeod on 10/1/2003
Probability 25% entered by Paul Moloney on 2/5/2004
Probability 100% entered by Anonymous on 3/24/2004
Probability 10% entered by Aris Katsaris on 4/16/2004
Probability 50% entered by BigEd on 6/8/2004
Overall opinion is Possible (58%)
Current opinion is Possible (58%)

Posted by:Fred

#9 Percentages yield more information. But it's only useful if more people would participate. So right now a yes/no probably makes more sense.

Posted by: Rafael 2004-06-20 9:52:54 PM

#8 It does seem to me to make a bit more sense. People who think it's 50/50 probably shouldn't be voting on it anyway. :-)

Posted by: Aris Katsaris 2004-06-20 8:44:58 PM

#7 What's everybody else think about that idea? Switch to a "yes/no" and post the results as odds -- yes:no?

Posted by: Fred 2004-06-20 6:28:51 PM

#6 Fred, when can we start laying money down on these bets? I am very serious about that. The other betting sites are a bit lame in the current events bets you can choose. Also, how could anyone have called the outcome correctly by forecasting anything but the low or high percent? Wouldn't it be better to just ask for yes or no bets, then figure out a probabilty from that?

Posted by: Zpaz 2004-06-20 1:36:01 PM

#5 "O'sama bin laden to rest" -Mark Steyn

Posted by: an dalusian dog 2004-06-20 1:16:07 PM

#4 Will we ever get confirmation that Bin Laden is dead?

Even if he is dead?

Posted by: Phil Fraering 2004-06-20 1:15:55 PM

#3 Both my successful guesses were pessimistic ones -- Osama not being confirmed dead, Sadr remaining alive and uncaptured.

But as usual my optimistic guess (Mahmoud Zahar being killed) failed me.

That says something, I think.

Posted by: Aris Katsaris 2004-06-20 1:14:26 PM

#2 That's two you've called lately...

Posted by: Fred 2004-06-20 1:03:57 PM

#1 What do I win? Was the one who thought it least likely. ;-)

Posted by: Aris Katsaris 2004-06-20 12:59:39 PM

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