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| China-Japan-Koreas | |
| The Undeclared Oil War | |
| 2004-06-28 | |
| Washington Post requires registration so salient paragraphs listed. For months China and Japan have been locked in a diplomatic battle over access to the big oil fields in Siberia. Japan, which depends entirely on imported oil, is desperately lobbying Moscow for a 2,300-mile pipeline from Siberia to coastal Japan. But fast-growing China, now the world’s second-largest oil user, after the United States, sees Russian oil as vital for its own "energy security" and is pushing for a 1,400-mile pipeline south to Daqing. The petro-rivalry has become so intense that Japan has offered to finance the $5 billion pipeline, invest $7 billion in development of Siberian oil fields and throw in an additional $2 billion for Russian "social projects" -- this despite the certainty that if Japan does win Russia’s oil, relations between Tokyo and Beijing may sink to their lowest, potentially most dangerous, levels since World War II. In the "emerging" economies, such as Brazil, India and especially China, energy demand is rising so fast it may double by 2020. And this only hints at the energy crisis facing the developing world, where nearly 2 billion people -- a third of the world’s population -- have almost no access to electricity or liquid fuels and are thus condemned to a medieval existence that breeds despair, resentment and, ultimately, conflict. In other words, we are on the cusp of a new kind of war -- between those who have enough energy and those who do not but are increasingly willing to go out and get it. While nations have always competed for oil, it seems more and more likely that the race for a piece of the last big reserves of oil and natural gas will be the dominant geopolitical theme of the 21st century.
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| Posted by:RWV |
| #6 Japan should work with Russia to pump the oil to Vladivostok. From there the pipe can be split to give the Chinese a chance to buy some if they want. I think the Chinese economy might stagnate before such a pipeline is finished but its nice to be prepared either way. Instead of having the Japanese pay for the pipeline they should get them to build a bullet train upon the old trans siberian highway so they can shift populations somewhat to the Pacific coast. Oh, and Russia should quietly sell back the Islands north of Japan that Japan wants and which really are frozen tundra of little use when Russia can no longer float a Pacific fleet. And thirdly, Vladivostok should immitate pre-PRC handover Hong Kong in every way possible. Minimal laws, minimal government, maximum trade. This would draw investment and immigrants across the new siberian bullet train and give Russia a serious foothold into the Pacific economy. Of course that's just my opinion, I could be wrong. |
| Posted by: yank 2004-06-28 5:17:21 PM |
| #5 this should come as no surprise. china for years has been positioning herself for control of siberia...there are already more ethinic chinese in siberia than russians..and with the overall decline of russian society this trend should continue.. |
| Posted by: Dan 2004-06-28 2:40:28 PM |
| #4 Well said RWV, Japan has a lot on it's plate in the coming decades. Lots of old scores/ memories in places like Korea and China. Russia should think about who a more reliable customer would be. Japan better get on the nuclear i.v., So should we. |
| Posted by: Lucky 2004-06-28 2:13:42 PM |
| #3 Remember, this is a Washington Post article. Even though they're all liberal arts majors over there, most of them studied journalism and poly sci. The only history they were exposed to was in their ethnic studies classes. So for them, this is unexpectedly insightful. |
| Posted by: RWV 2004-06-28 1:39:59 PM |
| #2 Japan's thirst for resources, particularly oil, is nicely covered in "The Eagle and the Rising Sun." Before the WWII, Japan got most of its oil from the US. When Roosevelt embargoed sales of strategic materials (oil) to Japan, the die was cast. The book says that the attack on Pearl Harbor and the thrust into the Dutch West Indies was launched because Japan had less than a year's supply of oil and no one would sell them anymore. |
| Posted by: RWV 2004-06-28 1:35:34 PM |
| #1 This actually demonstrates an important point: There are repeated calls for alternatives to oil. If there were realistic alternatives, wouldn't the Japanese or the Chinese use them? It's still the only game in town. |
| Posted by: Anonymous5442 2004-06-28 1:12:28 PM |