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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Computers could defuse Iran row
2004-07-02
NAVIGATIONAL computers on British patrol boats seized by Iran could be used to resolve a rapidly-escalating row between London and Tehran over the eight servicemen captured last week.

Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, has made it clear that he is prepared to believe the Royal Marines’ account of being "forcibly escorted" into Iranian waters after routine patrolling off the Iraqi coast. Peter Hain, the Leader of the Commons, raised the temperature yesterday by accusing Iran of "intolerable" behaviour in its decision to blindfold the men and parade them on television. Mr Straw said he was making "strong representations" to the Iranians about the way the servicemen were treated.

The Foreign Office said it was pressurising Tehran to release the boats and equipment seized on the disputed Shatt al-Arab waterway, which separates Iraq and Iran. The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said that they were confident about securing the return of the boats.

The Iranian government has said that British diplomats had accepted that the marines had strayed to the wrong side of the waterway. But Mr Straw yesterday made clear he does not necessarily accept this version of events. "We would be greatly assisted if and when we get back the global positioning equipment, because that will tell us for certain where they were," he said. The equipment has recording devices which could be used to track the movements.

A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said they believed there was no case to answer - and claimed it had minutes of a meeting, signed by a United Kingdom official, in which he admitted the marines had made a mistake. "We expect the British authorities to express an opinion on the basis of accurate information and facts," he said. "The minutes acknowledged that the British boats entered the Iranian waters by mistake. The minutes also included the expression of regret by the British soldiers."

The terse exchanges between Tehran and London yesterday threatened to ignite a new diplomatic row which Mr Straw is desperate to avoid as Britain tries to court opinion in the Middle East.
Orrin Judd says it best: "There is currently much talk about the Europeans and the Security Council getting tough with Iran over its nuclear programme. Could Iran have devised a more brilliant, low-risk test of their mettle? Is it possible that the one cogent reason for regretting the war in Iraq is that Iraq is not Iran and another war, nukes or no nukes, is politically impossible?"
Posted by:Mark Espinola

#9  coup plotters

LH!
President Bush called them "coupe people".
LOL.

Posted by: Shipman   2004-07-02 4:38:39 PM  

#8  I would be very, very surprised if the Iranians didn't stall on the nav computer issue, turning it into yet another quibble in this whole thing. And if the Brits do get them back, they'd better check for sabotage and altered programming straightaway.
Posted by: The Doctor   2004-07-02 4:18:21 PM  

#7  Give them Nukes and there will be a radioactive Gotterdammerung in the Middle East - the bastard fanatics will destroy their own nation and irradiate the ones around them rather than realize they were on the losing end of history.

good point and quite plausible - if in the event of civil unrest, regular army looks to be joining in against the mullahs, the mullahs might well launch a nuke on a key military base.

Has anyone fully wargamed the USSR coup attempt in 1991?? Did the coup plotters have access to nukes? (of course they were drunken amateurs compared to the mullahs, I think)
Posted by: Liberalhawk   2004-07-02 12:45:07 PM  

#6  The only question is how many of their own will the Mullahs kill before they themselves end up with their heads on pikes?

... Mark my words: if the Iranian people themselves do not revolt soon, the blood price paid will be incredible for them, and for the whole region.


Well said, OldSpook. As always, it's the little guys who will bear the brunt of any poor decisions being made at the top.

And all the fanatacism in the world doesn't maintain jet aircraft.

Sort of ironic to think about how Iran used to have one of the finest air forces in the entire Middle East. How many billions of dollars worth of American jet fighters do they have rusting gently in their hangars? I wonder if they even have a single pilot qualified to fly one of them. What a pleasant thumb in the eye for the mullahs whenever they review their sophisticated and utterly flightless air wing.

Aren't Iran's tanks the old Soviet style TUs that need to have their barrels exchanged after a few dozen rounds? This whole scene is redolent of people with slingshots taunting someone with a machine gun.
Posted by: Zenster   2004-07-02 10:25:07 AM  

#5  In terms of heavy troops, the Army still has most of em. The RG's are still a light infantry force, although much better funded and equipped than the regular army - but they do have a few tanks. Big thing the RG's have is political pull. I'd have to find open spources for the troop strengths before I speak to that.

And all the fanatacism in the world doesn't maintain jet aircraft. Fanatics do not make good A&P mechanics ("Its good enough for Allah" doenst cut it when doing engine inspections).
Posted by: OldSpook   2004-07-02 10:09:32 AM  

#4  The Brits have a score to settle here but in the UK it's off the news, I bet, with stupid shit!

Shep?
Posted by: Lucky   2004-07-02 4:23:05 AM  

#3  OldSpook: What's left of the regular army/navy/air force? Is that a potential source of revolt? Iran is a big country in a tough neighborhood. You'd think they'd have to have *some* professional troops and border guards.
Posted by: Classical_Liberal   2004-07-02 2:22:45 AM  

#2  The Brits, as precarious as they are perched politically, would not be arguing this unless they already knew the answer to the question: Where were the Brits when they were siezed by the Iranians? A: well on the IRAQI side of the border. This was yet another incursion by the Iranians into Iraq. They keep this up, they may yet do what we have not: Unite the Iraqi people (against them).

The Revolutionary Guards and their whipholder Mullahs are spoiling for a fight - they need an external enemy soon, before the people turn completely against the Mullahs. Thats why they shanghai'd those Brit sailors.

And if you notice, the "Regular" Iranian Army and Navy had NOTHING to do with it. There are fissures developing that will soon rip Iran apart. The only question is how many of their own will the Mullahs kill before they themselves end up with their heads on pikes?

Give them Nukes and there will be a radioactive Gotterdammerung in the Middle East - the bastard fanatics will destroy their own nation and irradiate the ones around them rather than realize they were on the losing end of history.

Mark my words: if the Iranian people themselves do not revolt soon, the blood price paid will be incredible for them, and for the whole region.
Posted by: OldSpook   2004-07-02 1:31:27 AM  

#1  Another war is not politically impossible. It's just impossible before November.
Posted by: Damn_Proud_American   2004-07-02 12:51:26 AM  

00:00