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| Is the Deployment Surge Just an Exercise? |
| 2004-07-15 |
| by Gerard Van Der Leun at American Digest. EFL’d to get to the good parts; worth reading the whole thing. As a seafaring friend of mine once remarked, an aircraft carrier is not really listed on the books as a "ship," but as a "strategic asset." And when a country starts to move 7 out of 12 of these assets around on the global chessboard, it might betoken something more than just a summer ’exercise.’ Indeed, if this were wartime (What? It is? Who knew?) moving this much killing power out onto the seas would be thought of as a fleet surge. Truman, Enterprise, Stennis, Washington, Kennedy, Reagan, Kitty Hawk. It could all be, of course, just prudent planning and practice. On the other hand, given the various signals being sent by Homeland Security, the nearness of the Olympics, and the advent of the elections, it may be a case of "Fortune favors the forward deployed." . . . It’s also interesting that the same page: U.S. Navy - Status of the Navy tells us that 92% of our surface ships are currently underway or deployed, and that 91% of our submarine fleet is either underway or deployed. This is a lot of activity. It would be interesting to know the last time these figures were achieved. Granted that in any navy there will always be a bit of moving about on the oceans. That is, after all, what the Navy does. But the percentages strike me as high, especially those of the submarine fleet. |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #9 Any war we fight will be fought out in the political arena first. Remember the agonizing debates in 2002, early '03 over Iraq? You could see it coming like a freight train gaining speed. Though you're probably 100% correct, this is also the best argument for not doing it this way next time. We probably missed Iraq's WMD while we putzed around with the UN. I doubt we'll make the same mistake next time. |
| Posted by: AzCat 2004-07-15 11:20:35 PM |
| #8 Damn, Frank, wish I had your view. SD boy in exile, and though I get back often, it's never enough. I've noted for several years now how empty 32nd Street is, compared to the old days, when I sit on the left side of the plane landing at Lindbergh. Your view encompasses the best value public golf course in the US, at the base of the bridge. Was playing there a few July's ago, must have been July 2 or 3, and along the shoreline on the back 9 some navy personnel were rigging up pyrotechnic charges for the SEAL demo they do in Glorietta Bay on the 4th. They touched off one big flash-bang without warning, just as one of our foursome was teeing off. Hilarious -- we let him hit again. Then some enlisted guys with radios came running up, apologizing, and provided 10-second warnings of future blasts. Only in Coronado ...... |
| Posted by: Verlaine 2004-07-15 11:19:22 PM |
| #7 I take it back. Boomers can get underway early. I forgot my history. The aircraft carrier USS Yorktown did a refit in 72 hours after the Battle of Coral Sea to repair bomb holes in the flight deck allowing it to get underway for the Battle of Midway. If the Yorktown can do it, so can any boomer. The situation is everything I guess. |
| Posted by: Zpaz 2004-07-15 11:04:17 PM |
| #6 Boomers are still working on a fixed schedule as in days of old. Three weeks refit, 70 days on patrol, turn over to the other crew. Rinse. Repeat. They can not "surge" with such short refit cycles. When your in port for a year like the carriers, you can do it, not boomers. Also, it is important that a certain number - the same number - of missiles be on station at all times. That means fixed cycles. Do 24 extra missiles at sea buy you any more capability if I have a fixed set of targets I want to hit at all times? Do we really want to have a time after the surge is over that some of those targets are not covered? That ship status page this guy links is fubar confusing. It names 36 surface ships that are deployed, then states 158 ships are deployed. Throw in the 35 sewer pipes it says are deployed and I count 71 ships deployed. How do you get from there to 158 ships deployed? Also, deployed ships are a subset of underway ships. This guy added the two. He counted ships twice to get his 92% of surface ships out to sea. Confused yet? This is an exercise to demo a capability. Other than having that capability in your back pocket, it is not part of any further geo-political plan. |
| Posted by: Zpaz 2004-07-15 10:27:09 PM |
| #5 Could be 1)Simply an exercise to test new doctrine,w/warning to world as added bonus 2)Israel is about to hit Iran and fleet is at sea as backup 3)Somebody in CIA,DOD got really spooked by some intell,and fleet is at sea as deterent/retaliation-esp.if boomers being at sea was leaked intentionally 4)My personal guess-after election Bush is going after everybody w/terror connections,screw public/world opinion-and esp.if Kerry is elected.The fleet is doing dry run(and if Bush is going after laundry list,explains why carriers are spread all over place).Figure 2-4 weeks exercise,6-8 weeks to correct faults and incorporate new personel,weapons,etc,then a month leave,and then week or so getting strike a/c aboard.Fleet leaves port end Oct./begin Nov. w/cover story circulating of terror strike on elections and after week or so sailing arrives on station.I may be eligible for the old tin-foil hat,but increasingly I think Bush is going to go after all the camps and possib WMD sites after election. |
| Posted by: Stephen 2004-07-15 9:21:06 PM |
| #4 Hell yes it's an exercise. What a bunch of chattering baloney. The Navy has been planning for years a shift to the "Fleet Response Plan" whereby instead of schedules written in stone, they can surge as many as 8 carriers on short notice. They have been planning this exercise for ages. You can check in daily on Summer Pulse '04 here. Any war we fight will be fought out in the political arena first. Remember the agonizing debates in 2002, early '03 over Iraq? You could see it coming like a freight train gaining speed. Congress will be consulted first. The US Navy will not fight outside of a joint war plan involving the other services. You can depend on the other services to demand a piece of the action. There are no surprises to expect this summer. Give it up. Wave off. Stand down the high hopes. Rig Rantburg for normal steaming. Stow the popcorn. |
| Posted by: Zpaz 2004-07-15 9:15:48 PM |
| #3 Good Post, Mike. My office in downtown San Diego looks sw, from North Island Carrier ports to 32nd street fleet base. In 6 years in this office I've never seen as much movement, practicing (off SEAL base in Coronado) and deployment of ships. |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-07-15 8:22:59 PM |
| #2 "154 Tomahawk cruise missiles" Holy Shit! I didn't know they carried more than 1/3 this number! I gotta get on GlobalSec, StrategyPg, and a sub to Jane's and catch up! |
| Posted by: .com 2004-07-15 8:21:05 PM |
| #1 ...I'm not sure the Trident SLCM conversions (officially the Florida class SSGN)are even out of the yards yet, much less deployed. IIRC only the first conversion has been funded, and it's still underway. Having said that, this is a hell of a lot of firepower running around loose. Remember what I said when this first came up - two carriers is an exercise. Seven is a campaign. Or a warning. Mike |
| Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2004-07-15 8:18:02 PM |