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China-Japan-Koreas
North Korean nuclear weapons testing
2004-09-12
Some good background info from GlobalSecurity ...
A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry of the DPRK said in an answer given to the question raised by KCNA on 17 October 2003 that "Recently some people of the international community argued whether the DPRK possesses a nuclear deterrent force or not in an attempt to sound out its inmost thought. The DPRK, however, does not care about this. When an appropriate time comes, the DPRK will take a measure to open its nuclear deterrent to the public as a physical force and then there will be no need to have any more argument."

During the January 2004 visit of the American delegation, DPRK Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Gye Gwan stated: "If you go back to the United States and say that the North already has nuclear weapons, this may cause the U.S. to act against us." At a later meeting, he returned to this concern by stating, "We are concerned that the U.S. Government will use what you conclude [as a pretext] to attack us. The U.S. might claim that this visit proves that the DPRK has crossed a red line when it restarted the reactor. Can we be sure that the U.S. will refrain from action if it declares that we have gone beyond its red line — such as finishing of the reprocessing and the change in the purpose of the reprocessing [from peaceful safety-related reasons to making weapons]?"

In a May 2004 interview with Selig Harrison, DPRK vice-foreign minister Kim Gye-gwan said "... the bomb dropped by the US at Nagasaki was made after four months of preparation. It's now a half century later, and we have more up-to-date technologies, so you can come to your own conclusions on this matter." DPRK foreign minister Paik Nam-soon said: "I don't think mere devices and the possession of nuclear material constitute a genuine deterrent. When we say deterrent, we mean a capability that can deter an attack." Adn Gen. Ri Chan-bok, spokesman for the Korean People's Army said "When we can't develop without a test, we'll test. ... Even without a test, we can develop, complete and manufacture nuclear weapons."
Posted by:Dan Darling

#11  We have seismometers up the ying yang in SKor. I am sure that we are sampling the cloud just to be sure in NKor. A UAV would be good for this little job. We will be able to surmise what components made the explosion. We ain't gonna say nothin' for now.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2004-09-12 3:00:29 PM  

#10  #8 easy enough to sample the air and tell if radiation was released even if sampled from Japan.

End of story.

#9 This area is known for its munitions factories and has several rail lines that form a nexus there.

All the ingredients for another Iranian-style train bomb.

Posted by: Zenster   2004-09-12 2:33:29 PM  

#9  Did some digging. Here's a bit of open source unclassified geography lesson for you guys.

Yongjo-ri is in the area of the explosion.

This area is known for its munitions factories and has several rail lines that form a nexus there.

The Rodong/Nodong missle factories and storage depots are also within 10Km of this town.

Draw your own conclusion.
Posted by: OldSpook   2004-09-12 11:40:52 AM  

#8  easy enough to sample the air and tell if radiation was released even if sampled from Japan. Agreed: Not a nuke, or jucheland would be having parades and confetti
Posted by: Frank G   2004-09-12 11:02:21 AM  

#7  Lux, thats a very good supposition.

And, given the silence of the Juche Publicity Machine, its very plausible.

forest fire = they blame the US for it.
they do a nuke = they brag about it.

They hose up their own missle storage facility, which "doesn't exist because Dear Leader says so", and you get silence.

Just think what happens when you maintain large amounts of stored rocket fuel components, and have someone get careless...
Posted by: OldSpook   2004-09-12 10:46:24 AM  

#6  The missile base in that area is underground, so possibly a catastrophic explosion of a few of these missiles underground could vent explosive gases upwards at some velocity, causing a mushroom cloud.
Posted by: Lux   2004-09-12 8:47:54 AM  

#5  Oldspook, I don't remember, but were you around here during the last suspected nuclear explosion in North Korea?
Posted by: Phil Fraering   2004-09-12 1:47:13 AM  

#4  NAN.

That a personal opinion or a professional one? Awful lot of stuff going "boom" in Norkland these days. Seems like the probability of all of these being industrial accidents is becoming vanishingly small. :)
Posted by: AzCat   2004-09-12 1:46:18 AM  

#3  IF this was a nuclear explosion there would be plenty on noise about this. It was a convertional explosion or a huge industrial accident.
Posted by: Sock Puppet of Doom   2004-09-12 1:37:33 AM  

#2  NAN.

Not A Nuke.
Posted by: OldSpook   2004-09-12 1:34:09 AM  

#1  Well, We've all waited for the other "Kimmy Shoe" to drop, and now it has!! It's poker time now,,, The US has got to put up or shut up! Damn if Bush wasn't right on, with the Axis Of Evil! Iran Next!!!
Posted by: smn   2004-09-12 1:12:16 AM  

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