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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Atomic Activity in North Korea Raises Concern |
| 2004-09-12 |
| NYT Of course, these guys believe Rather so salt to taste President Bush and his top advisers have received intelligence reports in recent days describing a confusing series of actions by North Korea that some experts believe could indicate the country is preparing to conduct its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon, according to senior officials with access to the intelligence. While the indications were viewed as serious enough to warrant a warning to the White House, American intelligence agencies appear divided about the significance of the new North Korean actions, much as they were about the evidence concerning Iraq's alleged weapons stockpiles. Some analysts in agencies that were the most cautious about the Iraq findings have cautioned that they do not believe the activity detected in North Korea in the past three weeks is necessarily the harbinger of a test. A senior scientist who assesses nuclear intelligence says the new evidence "is not conclusive," but is potentially worrisome. If successful, a test would end a debate that stretches back more than a decade over whether North Korea has a rudimentary arsenal, as it has boasted in recent years. Some analysts also fear that a test could change the balance of power in Asia, perhaps leading to a new nuclear arms race there. In interviews on Friday and Saturday, senior officials were reluctant to provide many details of the new activities they have detected, but some of the information appears to have come from satellite intelligence. One official with access to the intelligence called it "a series of indicators of increased activity that we believe would be associated with a test," saying that the "likelihood" of a North Korean test had risen significantly in just the past four weeks. It was that changed assessment that led to the decision to give an update to President Bush, the officials said. |
| Posted by:Mrs. Davis |
| #2 A Dan, why should the Bouffant One's subjects be told anything? When dissidents get sent to the medical experimentation building, and shirkers lose their grass ration, a certain lack of curiousity develops. If anything, it was probably announced that fireworks were set off to celebrate the Dear Leader's latest golf score. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2004-09-13 1:30:21 AM |
| #1 For reasons that OldSpook covered thoroughly last night, the odds that Thursday's explosion was truly nuclear seem remote, but even if was a genuine nuke, my question remains the same: what story will Kim's domestic audience hear? Whether it was uranium, munitions, or fertilizer, any explosion big enough to produce a mushroom cloud "kilometers across" requires an explanation, even (especially?) in the world's most paranoid regime. Admitting a massive military accident would be regime suicide, so his only two broad options (unless someone else can suggest an alternative) are either 1) a successful home-grown nuke, or 2) an enemy attack. Two high body counts in a matter of months is good evidence that even NK's pampered military is being run "on the cheap," and that means that literally anything could happen next. What angle will Pyongyang take on this? I wish secretive Stalinist regimes weren't so damned ... secretive. |
| Posted by: Another Dan 2004-09-12 11:20:58 PM |