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Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Assad planning to fold?

2004-10-07

Syrian President Bashar Assad is offering to make peace with Israel and says he is ready to cooperate with the United States in stabilizing Iraq, a former senior State Department official said Wednesday. "Something is going on in Syria and it is time for us to pay attention," said Martin Indyk, assistant secretary of state for the Near East and U.S. ambassador to Israel during the Clinton administration.

This is something to watch. If anything actually comes of it, it'll be more significant than Muammar throwing in the towel. But I imagine there's going to be a surge in our direction, but then it'll subside. But I don't know enough about Syria or Assad to be sure...

In a three-hour meeting with the Syrian president last month in Damascus, Indyk said he detected a "clear change" in Assad's views on a number of fronts. On peacemaking, Assad offered to hold talks with Israel without preconditions, Indyk said, and had made several overtures to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon that the latter rebuffed. In the past, Indyk said, Syria had insisted that any peace talks should resume where they left off during the Clinton administration - with Israel offering to give up all of the Golan Heights, a strategic area Israel won in the 1967 Mideast war. And, Indyk said, Assad had dropped a demand that Israel reach an agreement with the Palestinians before Israel could resume negotiations with Syria.

On the domestic side, Indyk said, Assad spoke "about the need to reform the government." "It's worth watching and it is worth testing," Indyk said at a seminar at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, of which Indyk is the director.

Posted by:Dan Darling

#20 One tactic that works great against the rope-a-dope is the groin shot. Isn't this Assad's attempt to establish a roadmap that he can use as a shield from US agression. His Sadaam-like ploy won't be effective unless he has more bribe money staffed than has been advertised.

Posted by: Super Hose 2004-10-07 7:23:49 PM

#19 Putting $5 on usual disaster to place.

Posted by: Shipman 2004-10-07 4:31:13 PM

#18 The more recent Iran Mullah Visits Syria posting may indicate that things are coming to a head in Syria. Both sides have a big stake in what direction Syria goes. The paleos and hizb'allah have a vital stake in the status quo in order to provide a base of operations against Israel. If the nutcases are kicked out of Lebanon and Syria, then Israel and Syria can work out a peace deal. That almost totally isolates the Paleos. A peaceful Syria would further isolate Iran big time. A peaceful Syria would have oil flowing in the trans Iraq pipeline, where they would again get some foreign exchange (and oil to supplement their depleted resources. All this depends upon Assad being able to make it happen without getting assassinated by his friends and enemies. I think that there are major things happening in Syria and that this is a tremendous opportunity for a breakthrough...... or your usual disaster.

Posted by: Alaska Paul 2004-10-07 2:09:15 PM

#17 Saddam slammed down.

Q-man falls down.

Mullahs go down.

Didn't the original "writing on the wall" take place on Syrian territory?

Posted by: Then There Was One 2004-10-07 1:24:50 PM

#16 LH - surely Indyk was selected to ensure deniability for both Bush and Boy Assad. A good choice to get things started now, rather than waiting till November. Indyk's a well-qualified, discreet, experienced mideast expert.

Posted by: lex 2004-10-07 1:22:45 PM

#15 Mrs D. - If we show we've got the intestinal fortitude to stick it out with Bush, tyrants like Assad are sure to notice and factor it into their calculations.

Well said ...

I think the Islamodoodles are waiting to see if the unwashed independents come with GWB in the end, insuring his Nov. victory...

Posted by: BigEd 2004-10-07 1:03:49 PM

#14 Good points AP...Baby Assad sees the Mullahs heading for the big slap down nad he's scrambling to get out of the way. I don't see a big change of heart here...just survival instincts.

Posted by: Rex Mundi 2004-10-07 12:26:09 PM

#13 If Iran goes down, than Syria starts going down. If Syria becomes too much of a pain in the ass for the US and/or Israel, then Syria will start going down. Assad knows this and is negotiating his way out a minefield. With all his trustworthy aides and military officers, he has to watch his six...........and his three....and his nine...........and his twelve o'clock. "Damn! We're in a tight spot!"

Posted by: Alaska Paul 2004-10-07 11:47:31 AM

#12 He has plenty of enemies within his own camp he needs to keep leashed up. He is almost as popular as Perv in Pakistan. If he can make a calculation that keeps him in power and allows him to make changes, maybe he sees a long term gig as ruler/president is possible. He needs to get out of our gunsights first, and it would be a very good thing if he sided a little more mainstream in the world community.

Posted by: Capsu78 2004-10-07 10:33:47 AM

#11 oldowan: 07/10/2004 = 7 October 2004

Posted by: RWV 2004-10-07 10:23:33 AM

#10 In little black letters, just over the headline:

Last Update: 07/10/2004

Posted by: oldowan 2004-10-07 10:15:22 AM

#9 LH, Who knows? Would those who know tell the truth? JFK used jurnos to comunicate with Rusia during the missile crisis, so stranger things have hapened. Interesting words. Actions to folow will be much more interesting.

Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2004-10-07 10:03:53 AM

#8 i guess the question is was Indyk there with permission of the US govt? Perhaps a "deniable" envoy? Surely not as a representative of the Kerry camp? (anyone know anything about Holbrookes relation with Indyk?)

Posted by: Liberalhawk 2004-10-07 9:42:52 AM

#7 Bashar is only 34 years old and considered in excellent health. As his late father Hafez rolled toward death Bashar was groomed to be his successor. The biggest concern being whether Bashar could co-opt the military. Apparently he has and may now be in a better position to follow through on modernizing the country, opening up/firming up relations with the US and, something he hinted to early onâ¦reaching an accommodation, if not a treaty with Israel.

Posted by: RN 2004-10-07 9:14:08 AM

#6 This is Assad's version of rope-a-dope. He'll bring things back to status quo ante when he thinks the pressure is off. We can trust this guy when he's dead, and not a moment before.

Posted by: Jonathan 2004-10-07 9:04:25 AM

#5 Who knows what was said by Indyk. As a former State employee he has greater lattitude in speculating without establishing US policy but at the same time being very well informed about it. Perhaps he told Assad that Syria was not the next guy in the gun sights, that is Iran. But that to assure we had no problem with Syria on our backside we were carefully coordinating schedules of operations and supplies of JDAMS with Israel. Anything could be said. And in spite of being a diplomat, he might even have told the truth, whatever it is.

Interestingly, it's all up to the American people on November 2. If we show we've got the intestinal fortitude to stick it out with Bush, tyrants like Assad are sure to notice and factor it into their calculations.

Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2004-10-07 8:54:16 AM

#4 Maybe he sees who the next guy in the gunsights is, and is no longer willing to bet on a Kerry victory. So he's pulling a Khadahffi.

Posted by: OldSpook 2004-10-07 8:24:57 AM

#3 Tom, a bit slow interpreter, maybe? :-)

Probably quite a long list of TTD's conveyed to Assad, in order to avoid the inevitable if he does not shape up. Of course, in diplo-speak, that takes about 6 times longer than in a normal human language. So, you can say that in real terms, the meeting lasted about 30 minutes.

Posted by: Memesis 2004-10-07 8:07:21 AM

#2 Indyk is a Brookings Scholar and hence a former State functionary. Heâs considered quite the expert on the Middle East, specifically the Levant and Iran-Iraq.

Posted by: RN 2004-10-07 8:07:17 AM

#1 "...former senior State Department official... In a three-hour meeting with the Syrian president last month in Damascus..."
Can anybody tell me why this FORMER official is meeting with Assad for three hours?

Posted by: Tom 2004-10-07 7:59:02 AM

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