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| China-Japan-Koreas | |
| China's new economy beset with problems | |
| 2004-10-10 | |
On the one hand, China's much-heralded economic growth during the last quarter century is unprecedented in world history. Annual incomes of the Chinese have more than quadrupled, from about $1,000 per capita to more than $4,000. At the same time, China is plagued by massive internal migration, officially disclaimed unemployment and an economically crippled and crippling collection of state-owned enterprises. An estimated 10 million people each year leave China's farms for its cities. This migration poses huge social and economic problems. And, with well over half of China's population still living in rural areas, there is no end in sight. While Chinese officials claim low unemployment rates, the country's population of 1.3 billion belies the significance of this claim. At the end of 2000, the official estimate of the unemployment rate stood at slightly more than 3 percent. While this may seem low by Western standards, it translates into more than 20 million unemployed. Most observers believe the official statistics understate the extent of unemployment. According to the Chinese newspaper People's Daily, in the last six years China's state-owned enterprises, which still account for about 60 percent of output, laid off more than 28 million workers. To put these numbers in perspective, overall employment in goods-producing industries in the United States has declined by about 3 million workers since its peak of 25 million in 1973. | |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #11 With 1.3 billion Chineese, if they only buy 10 ounces of kilowatt hours/yr then we will get rich! rich! rich I tells ya! |
| Posted by: Shipman 2004-10-10 7:54:32 PM |
| #10 and there needs to be a cost to their adventurism...next time they take down a plane, sell a shitload of defensive weapons to teh Taiwanese. Status quo is they stay put |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-10-10 5:02:50 PM |
| #9 Despite all said about getting along, a thug is a thug. The Chinese government needs to back the hell off Taiwan and get the hell out of Tibet to boot. I'll take their money, I won't take their shit. |
| Posted by: Zpaz 2004-10-10 4:24:35 PM |
| #8 Economically, we and the Chinese are joined at the hip. This will be a difficult relationship to manage, but China is not more dangerous to us or our interests than the Soviets were, or the jihadists and their state sponsors are. |
| Posted by: lex 2004-10-10 3:45:40 PM |
| #7 Ooops. That's 1.3 billion according to CIA world fact book. I was off by 5 Taiwans. My bad. |
| Posted by: Zpaz 2004-10-10 3:09:13 PM |
| #6 Frank, oddly enough, they have not reverse engineered our stuff...yet. We actually have been expecting it, but nothing yet. One explanation is that our stuff is not a commodity yet. There is simply much more than a hunk of software in getting and keeping a power plant online. Also, I suspect the Chinese like having a $50 billion a year company as their supplier. It gives them a voice in Congress. That is the only way I can explain the non-emergence of a Chinese competitor. It will happen in time though. There is simply too much cheap talent in China. Phil, in our case they do not have to close the market. They simply stop buying from us and start buying Siemens. Nothing overt. Just across the board drying up of contracts in many industries. I doubt there will be any backlash. Wal-mart needs their cheap supplies. We simply do not own our customers. It is the American way. That gives them power. Trying to sort out who is dependent on who is a difficult and pointless task. We are simply interdependent. Keep this in mind. There are 1.2 billion customers in China. There are 22 million customers in Taiwan. Which commands more respect from the American business community? Outright confrontation with China is a lose-lose for us and them. |
| Posted by: Zpaz 2004-10-10 2:42:20 PM |
| #5 one big caveat is China's propensity for reverse-engineering technology and producing it themselves with no respect for patents or copyrights. Nobody can trust them with technology imports for longer than it takes to R-E the stuff. Just ask Pfizer |
| Posted by: Frank G 2004-10-10 2:13:46 PM |
| #4 Zpaz: I don't see any way the Chinese could close the market to us that wouldn't risk a similar backlash here. |
| Posted by: Phil Fraering 2004-10-10 1:58:14 PM |
| #3 The company I work for sells control systems for the power, water and waste water industries. We are about to reach a milestone. Within the year, half of all our installed systems will be in China. If the Chinese market were to dry up, my company would be in for tough times. Thus, do not underestimate the power of the Chinese in negotiations with the US. If China were to threaten to close the market to us and give it to our European competitors because of our support for Taiwan, my company's president would be on the phone, in a heart beat, to any politician he can reach saying cut Taiwan off at the knees. He could care less about communism. My prez only cares about sales. Quote he on our Asian strategy, "China, there is nothing else." Even Bush had to pull Taiwan's chain a while back, telling them to knock off the independence chatter. It is my belief that China is ultimately going to have its way with Taiwan with a wink and a nod from us. The customer is always right. Look for more conciliatory speeches from Taiwan. |
| Posted by: Zpaz 2004-10-10 12:35:04 PM |
| #2 "Aspects of this situation actually play to the advantage of U.S. companies. For China's transition to a market economy to be politically acceptable, the rate at which state-owned enterprises are restructured must keep pace with the rate at which new private-sector jobs are created. Foreign direct investment has been the major source of jobs for former employees of state-owned enterprises and displaced migrants from the countryside." Which is why an invasion of Taiwan with an immediate resultant embargo of all trade with the US is sucide for the Chinese economy, instant vast unemployment without sustainable safety nets, and social disruption. Things a central control/management system can not quickly solve. Throw in the extent of corruption still operating in the system and you invite the historical Chinese cycle of revolt and fragmentation. |
| Posted by: Don 2004-10-10 8:21:50 AM |
| #1 Awwwwwwww |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2004-10-10 12:08:31 AM |