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China-Japan-Koreas
China moves 30,000 troops to N. Korean border
2004-10-12
China's sudden transfer of more than 30,000 Chinese troops to border areas with North Korea is apparently intended to block a massive influx of North Korean defectors, a Japanese newspaper reported on Oct. 7. The North Korean army has also dispatched elite forces along the border in response to China's deployment, the Sankei Shimbun reported, citing sources informed on Chinese issues. The Japanese government has confirmed military movements along the Sino-North Korean border by using satellite photographs and is monitoring the situation using its intelligence network.

The deployment of Chinese troops was so sudden that there were not enough barracks available and soldiers are being quartered in farmhouses. The rapid deployment was ordered because of growing signs in North Korea of an impending mass defection, the newspaper reported. The troop movements followed widespread rumors that North Korean soldiers manning the border would flee the North en masse. Chinese troops were sent to the region ahead of the winter season when North Koreans can easily cross the frozen river into China, the newspaper reported. It quoted sources as saying that China is concerned about the possibility that armed North Korean troops might escape due to food shortage and assault homes and citizens in local cities bordering the North.

A diplomatic source in South Korea also said the military movements by China and North Korea seemed aimed at blocking mass defections of North Koreans. The Sanhe-Kaishantun-Nanping region in which the Chinese troops were deployed is near one of main routes through which North Korean escapees can make their way to China, according to the South Korean sources. North Koreans can cross the narrow river with relative ease, especially when it is frozen. The report also raised that possibility the deployment was in response to preparations against a possible civil war in North Korea over who would be the country's next leader. Meanwhile, the South Korea Defense Ministry said China would send about 400,000 troops to fight alongside North Korea should war break out on the Korean peninsula. China rescued North Korea in the 1950-53 Korean War, sending some 1 million troops to fight with North Korea against South Korea and the United States.
Posted by:Mark Espinola

#20  aack! Popcorn indeed!!

China only does what is good for China. Attributing even the least sort of magnanimous intentions to the communists is worse than stupid
I'll buy that.

Big thing is that China does not want any Nork refugees coming over the border
That seems to be what is driving their self-interest.

I like Kettle Korn.
Posted by: 2b   2004-10-13 4:22:47 AM  

#19  Big thing is that China does not want any Nork refugees coming over the border and hosing up the CHinese economy.
Posted by: OldSpook   2004-10-12 11:55:22 PM  

#18  I think that tensions are sky high between the two over the Nork development of nukes, and refusal to bow before China's demand to cut that crap out.

I wouldn't bet a plug nickel on China wanting North Korea "to cut that crap out." Kim's nuclear posturing is exactly what the Chinese want, and always have wanted, as a drain on American resources in the region.

...the scary thought is if China starts overrunning N.Korea the S.Koreans get involved.

This is a lot closer to the truth. There is no way in frozen hell that China wants a reunited and more powerful Korea perched on their border. The politburo would sooner annex North Korea than allow the South to claim a single rice paddy from across the DMZ.

China only does what is good for China. Attributing even the least sort of magnanimous intentions to the communists is worse than stupid. North Korea has always been China's Rotweiller. Lately, feeding their rabid pet has become a slight strain so they are merely getting ready to clean its cage and replace the current occupant with another trained lap dog.
Posted by: Zenster   2004-10-12 11:41:54 PM  

#17  This is all the result of Kim's portrayal as a poofy haired idjit with a lisp and Harry Caray glasses in Team America - World Police. That portrayal isn't true. He's not really a marionette
Posted by: Frank G   2004-10-12 10:58:10 PM  

#16  This report appears to be straight up - and good news for the good guys. This will be a long cold hungry winter for the axis of evil. I guess hell will freeze over.
Posted by: JP   2004-10-12 10:40:48 PM  

#15  RC,the scary thought is if China starts overrunning N.Korea the S.Koreans get involved.

China most likely sent troops to border based on some credible urgent info.(The NBA has sent 2 teams for a couple of exhibition games this week,so I doubt China is doing anything preplanned.)The action does raise questions about the new top Chinese military leadership.Is the new guy panicking,or trying to show he's strong?Or is he letting his generals run things?

As KJI is supposed to be paranoid,if the Chinese put troops on his border,I would think he would want to put reliable troops opposite them.
Posted by: Stephen   2004-10-12 10:30:48 PM  

#14  I didn't realize the leadership position was in play.

There have been rumors that a portion of the NK military leadership is unhappy with Kim-Jung-Il. Initial news reports shortly after the train explosion mentioned this.

The civil war is a remote, very remote possibility. 30K PLA troops sounds more like a border guard, and NK elite troops coming north might be to squelch defections.
Posted by: Pappy   2004-10-12 8:23:19 PM  

#13  I don't think we need a victorious, starving North Korea straddling the Yalu.

Straddling a river is a good way to find out that the other guy has a hell of a lot more troops than you.

Seriously, unless they (God forbid) went nuclear, there's no way the NorKs could stand against the Chinese. How much fuel do they have? I'd bet they have a week or two -- a month on the outside -- for their army, but that's assuming they're willing to burn through it all and leave the DMZ immobilized.
Posted by: Robert Crawford   2004-10-12 6:51:04 PM  

#12  60000 tons of wheat shouldn't have been givin too them either. Let China feed their asses
Posted by: smokeysinse   2004-10-12 6:28:31 PM  

#11  What they really mean:

China is concerned about the possibility that armed North Korean troops might escape due to food shortage and assault homes and eat citizens in local cities bordering the North

..... preparations against a possible civil war in North Korea over who would be the country’s next leader dinner.

Frozen Yalu river - oh, good - nutritious ice cube and sawdust sandwiches = mmm, mmm good......
Posted by: Lone Ranger   2004-10-12 6:25:13 PM  

#10  Remember that the Vietnamese in 1979 had a battle hardened, resolute corps of soldiers. What do the Norks have? A Maginot line facing south and 2 million starved pointed stick carriers. The Chinese have a huge surplus of pointed stick carriers and traditionally is willing to expend them at truly Asiatic rates to make a point. What could it easily deploy against the Norks? 4 million?
Posted by: Anonymoose   2004-10-12 5:58:06 PM  

#9  China v North Korea take China's attention off Taiwan for a while.

This probably is just to deal with the refugee situation, though the bit about the "next leader/civil war" in NK is interesting.
Posted by: Laurence of the Rats   2004-10-12 5:05:04 PM  

#8  One would hope that this isn't 1979 come again. The Vietnamese kicked Chinese ass. I don't think we need a victorious, starving North Korea straddling the Yalu.
Posted by: Mitch H.   2004-10-12 4:56:06 PM  

#7  I guess that vacation in Shenyang isn't lookin' too good, huh?
Posted by: mojo   2004-10-12 4:46:54 PM  

#6  I don't believe these "reasons" for a minute. I think that tensions are sky high between the two over the Nork development of nukes, and refusal to bow before China's demand to cut that crap out. As a model, I would look to the China-Vietnam spat in 1979. Except this time, the stakes are much higher.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2004-10-12 4:40:56 PM  

#5  The report also raised that possibility the deployment was in response to preparations against a possible civil war in North Korea over who would be the country’s next leader. I didn't realize the leadership position was in play.
Posted by: trailing wife   2004-10-12 4:34:13 PM  

#4  Well, at least the US quit giving the Norks aid of any type (except 60,000 tons of wheat or something recently). The sooner the Norks fall, the quicker the people can be rescued from their horrible fate at the hands of the Nork leaders.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2004-10-12 4:33:21 PM  

#3  Elite actually meaning those whose digestive systems can handle tree bark better than others.
Posted by: Dreadnought   2004-10-12 3:55:03 PM  

#2  The North Korean army has also dispatched elite forces along the border in response to China’s deployment

"Elite" in this context means "not quite as hungry as the regular troops".
Posted by: BH   2004-10-12 3:40:00 PM  

#1  Dibbs on the popcorn concession.

In all seriousness, I hope hundreds of thousands of NorK refugees somehow make it to freedom, in spite of the ChiComs and their looney-tunes "leader."
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2004-10-12 3:28:21 PM  

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