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| Neglected Hawaii Emerges As Swing State |
| 2004-10-22 |
| What's up is down and what's down is up, and yes, I do realize they FINALLY elected a pubbie after 50 years of statehood. Via Bros. Judd: Often dismissed as too small, too isolated and too Democratic to worry about in presidential contests, Hawaii suddenly has a close race. Democrats say Sen. John Kerry still has an edge over President Bush in the contest for Hawaii's four electoral votes, but the race has become awfully tight for their comfort. With late poll closings - 11 p.m. EST on Nov. 2 - and a slow count, Hawaii politicians are talking about offering a dramatic conclusion to what could be an ultra-close national election. "We may make the difference," said Linda Chu Takayama, campaign manager for Democratic Sen. Daniel Inouye, who is all but assured of victory in his own race for an eighth term. "Surprise, surprise. The polls I've seen show it up and down but always within the margin of error." The only statewide media poll, more than two months ago, showed Kerry leading Bush, 48-41. Private polling reviewed by strategists for both Kerry and Bush more recently suggests the race is still that close. Hawaii may not be a big-vote, difference-making tossup state like Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, but the race is remarkable in a state Democrat Al Gore won by 20 percentage points in 2000 - and one that has been solid blue on most election maps. Democratic strategists in Washington privately admit they have neglected Hawaii, but no more. They have dispatched political operatives to shore up Kerry's support and believe the race is now about as close as Washington state and Oregon, two long-standing battlegrounds that both parties think are leaning toward Kerry. (Does HI have a ban gay marriage proposal on the ballot???) Open campaigning for the presidency is just getting started in the islands. The first major rally for Kerry and Sen. John Edwards was Friday near the state Capitol. Campaign signs for Bush and vice presidential candidate Dick Cheney are just now popping up along roadsides. Local candidates in leis line major thoroughfares and freeway entrances with their own signs in Hawaii's colorful honk-and-wave style of campaigning. But during the campaign no major national political figure, much less Bush or Kerry, has set foot in the state, 4,800 miles from Washington. "They're going to rely on us to carry the election here," said Republican Gov. Linda Lingle. Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon are the only GOP presidential candidates ever to win Hawaii's vote. They, like Bush, were running for second terms. Republicans say Bush has been helped by cable television ads running in the islands, where cable viewership is high. Bush and his party have outspent Kerry $17 million to $5 million on national cable TV ads that include Hawaii. Also, with the tourism industry recovering from the Sept. 11 attacks, Hawaii's unemployment rate is 3.1 percent, lowest in the nation. And Republicans say they're doing better than expected among the state's large number of veterans. On the other hand, Democratic Sen. Inouye told The Associated Press while campaigning on Oahu this week that anger over the deployment of a disproportionate number of National Guard troops from Hawaii, the state's highest-in-the-nation gasoline prices and Bush's support for gun legislation are factors that help Kerry..... |
| Posted by:anonymous2u |
| #10 Part of the swing is a huge retired military population. Many may be from traditional Democratic backrounds, but Kerry sticks in their craw...... |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2004-10-22 11:45:44 PM |
| #9 Hawaii's economy has been in the tank since Japan melted down years ago. More than anything, Bush is probably benefitting from their first economic upswing in more than a decade. |
| Posted by: AzCat 2004-10-22 8:21:34 PM |
| #8 #3 Alaska Paul - did my bit & sent her some money last week. Hope it helps. Anyone else inclined to help, you can donate here John Thune, who has an excellent chance to unseat Tom Dash-hole, is here |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2004-10-22 7:22:10 PM |
| #7 I read somewhere...that the DNC in Hawaii had taken to handing out Michael Moore's DVD to likely voters. That dog don't fight when a good portion of the main islands are inhabited by Navy, ex-Navy or someone who knows someone in the Navy. Also,you might be surprised at the number of Vietnam Vets who reside in Hawaii...That was a jumping off point to Vietnam...as well as a return gate. A significant number made their homes there... for what it's worth. |
| Posted by: IR 2004-10-22 6:29:56 PM |
#6 Hawaii swings all right!"Hahahahaha, Wipe Out...." |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2004-10-22 6:22:59 PM |
| #5 The Bush/Cheney campaign should exploit this opportunity immediately. Send Jenna and Barbara to give speeches and play pickup volleyball games at Waikiki Beach this weekend. Arrange lots of media coverage. Please! |
| Posted by: Mike 2004-10-22 6:05:23 PM |
| #4 They have dispatched political operatives Pick me, pick me. For two weeks in the tropic sun I'll pretend to be a Skerry supporter |
| Posted by: Cheaderhead 2004-10-22 5:45:52 PM |
| #3 Knowles ahead of Murkowski about 48 to 45. The outcome will depend upon who screws up least before Nov. 2, some pundits say. This will be a tight one. The stakes are enormous. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2004-10-22 5:34:57 PM |
| #2 What does the polling say about that race, AP? I heard that the Dem is ahead... |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2004-10-22 5:26:33 PM |
| #1 Alaska will probably go for Bush, but we have a very hot senate race going now between R. Lisa Murkowski and D. Tony Knowles. The airwaves have literally been smoking with political ads, like chemtrails, heh heh. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2004-10-22 5:23:59 PM |