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Home Front: Politix

Futures, kids' votes, pigskins

2004-10-25

Forget the opinion polls, pundits and focus groups. If you really want to know who's going to win the presidential election, keep an eye on these far more reliable, time-tested indicators in the coming week.

-- Halloween masks: Sales figures for rubber masks of the candidates have foretold the winner of every election since 1980, according to costume sellers. In other words, the bigger freak usually wins. BuyCostumes.com, which has been keeping tabs on this year's showdown, reports that boneheaded President Bush is outselling big-headed Sen. John Kerry 53 to 47 percent, although Kerry has been steadily closing the gap.

-- Political markets: When in doubt, follow the money. A direct barometer of the candidates' prospects can be found on the Iowa Electronic Markets, where traders buy and sell political futures. The market has correctly predicted the winner in every election since 1988. Investors are currently slightly bullish on Bush, giving him about a 54 percent chance of winning.

-- The kids' vote: Since 1956, the Weekly Reader has polled students in grades 1 through 12 on their presidential preference. As the results have proven, you can't fool children. They have correctly chosen the winner in each of the last 12 elections. The winner of this year's poll will be announced this week.

-- The Washington Redskins: In the last 18 elections, when the Redskins have won their final home game prior to the election, the incumbent has held the White House. This year the Redskins face the Green Bay Packers on Oct. 31. Kerry knows how much is riding on the game. At a campaign stop in Wisconsin, he said, "You're looking at the biggest cheesehead in America."

Seeking to put a cheerful face on their efforts to rip each other to shreds, both Bush and Kerry have employed a potent weapon: mockery. Bush frequently uses derisive humor to paint his opponent as a flip- flopping liberal who can't be trusted. Prior to the debates, for example, Bush said it was tough to prepare because Kerry keeps changing his positions. "I think he could spend 90 minutes debating himself," he quipped. Later, trying to turn the tables after he was widely ridiculed for scowling during the first debate, Bush said Kerry's flip-flops were to blame. "You hear all that, and you can understand why somebody would make a face."

In another dig, Bush said Kerry has little to show for his 20-year Senate record, other than the distinction, bestowed on him by a magazine, as the nation's most liberal senator. "When the competition includes Ted Kennedy, that's really saying something," Bush said. "You might even say it was hard work," he added.

Kerry, meanwhile, jabs his opponent for general ineptitude. Discussing the debate negotiations with Regis Philbin, Kerry said, "The big hang-up was George Bush wanted to get life lines, you know, so he could call somebody."

During an appearance on the "Late Show With David Letterman," Kerry offered his own Top 10 list of Bush tax proposals. Item 1: "George W. Bush gets a deduction for mortgaging our entire future." His best line, though, came earlier this year after reporters told him that Bush had taken a tumble off his bike. "Did the training wheels fall off?" Kerry asked.

Americans may be divided over the candidates, but the late-night comedians have a clear favorite. During the first eight months of the year, they spent more than twice as much time poking fun at Bush as Kerry, according to the Center for Media and Public Affairs. Out of the 1,127 jokes that Jay Leno, David Letterman, Conan O'Brien and Jon Stewart told about the candidates, 778 derided Bush and 349 knocked Kerry.

The majority of Bush jokes centered on his intelligence and, to a lesser extent, on his personality and honesty. Kerry was frequently ridiculed for his personality, appearance and lack of consistency. So who makes for a better punch line? You be the judge:

"You see the pictures in the paper of John Kerry windsurfing? ... Even his hobby depends on which way the wind blows."
-- Jay Leno.

"During the debate, Bush was asked by a lady to name three mistakes he's made. Bush responded, 'This debate, the last debate and the next debate.' "
-- Bill Maher.

"John Kerry says the 'W' in George W. Bush stands for 'Wrong.' But he still can't explain what John Kerry stands for."
-- David Letterman.

"Bush bragged that more Iraqis say their country is on the right track than Americans say our country is on the right track. Boy, there's a campaign slogan for you -- 'America: More F---ed Up Than Fallujah!' "
-- Bill Maher.

"Pundits are saying that Kerry's message is garbled. You know you're doing badly when you're running against Bush, and you're the one who is garbled."
-- David Letterman.

"John Kerry said if President Bush is re-elected, he might bring back a military draft. When asked, Bush said, 'Trust me, even if I bring back the draft, there are plenty of ways to get around it.' "
-- Conan O'Brien

Posted by:tipper

#1 According to James Taranto Bush won the Weekly Reader poll by a whoppping 65% to 33%. (I can sleep now.)

Posted by: Wuzzalib 2004-10-25 8:28:16 PM

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