A gang boss fighting for Ijaw self-determination in the Niger Delta could threaten the world's energy balance and the existence of the Nigerian state itself. Until recently, Al-Haji Asari Dokubo was just a powerful local gang leader and businessman. But now he is responsible for a conflict that has spiralled into a global problem. Asari claims inspiration from a range of guerrilla fighters, past and present: "Che Guevara and Fidel Castro, the South African struggle. I take inspiration from the resistance that is going on in Iraq, Chechnya and in Palestine."
| Two words, bub: Biafra. No. Make that one word... |
Asari had just 2,000 men under arms - but the political impact of his call was so great it was the factor that finally tipped the oil price above $50. Within weeks, Nigeria's president had to send his personal plane to bring Asari to Abuja and negotiate a ceasefire. But the ceasefire solves nothing. Bunkering is still going on under the noses of the Nigerian navy, ripping off up to 10% of the country's oil production. The stakes are high. Oil provides 95% of Nigeria's foreign exchange and funds 65% of the Nigerian state budget. With the Middle East in crisis - and Venezuela still simmering - Nigerian crude oil has become highly important to the USA's energy security. The Niger Delta is, effectively, America's reserve fuel tank. If the Delta conflict spirals out of control, it could destroy Nigeria's unity and disrupt the global balance of oil supply. That is the doomsday scenario - and completely avoidable according to experts in conflict resolution. |