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| Afghanistan/South Asia |
| Intelligence Buruau sez Kashmir insurgency declining |
| 2004-11-22 |
| EFL Sources in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) told TFT the Home Ministry's report had given a 'nothing-has-changed' assessment of violence in J&K. The Home Ministry report submitted to the PM by Home Minister Shivraj Patil after his visit to J&K expressed concern over the internal security situation in the state and cited an increase in attacks on political personalities and surrendered militants. The IB report showed a different picture, stressing that the strength of the militant cadres had reduced by 40 per cent to about 2,100 men in J&K as against the estimated strength of 3,500 two years ago. "The reduction in the number of militants killed was mainly due to the reluctance of militants to take on the Security Forces directly," said the IB report. "What they have resorted to instead is reliance on more grenades and IEDs to attack security forces and periodic demonstrative actions." During the past 12 months ending with August 2004, the number of militancy-related incidents dropped from 2,795 to 2,368. Also, attacks on the security forces declined significantly from 1451 last year to 1,248 with a resultant decline in casualties of security personnel from 402 to 316. In all, 2395 deaths including those of security personnel and militants were reported as against 2,839 that were reported last year. There has also been a decline in the number of militants killed from 1535 to 1250. However, the percentage of foreign mercenaries among the militants killed was higher this year than it was last year: 435 out of 1250 as against last year's figures of 483 out of 1535. The IB report also mentioned that infiltration had declined sharply to an estimated 421 incidents in the first eight months of the year, as against 927 in the same period in 2003 and 986 in 2002. According to PMO sources, there are an estimated 83 training camps in operation, 47 of which are in AJK, 10 in the Northern areas and 26 in other parts of Pakistan. Of the 47 camps in AJK, 19 are new camps, 21 are old and seven have reopened at previous locations. "The communication network of the militants also remains well-organised with 32 control stations clustered in six well known locations in AJK and one in Pakistan," said a PMO source. "Messages are going out from as many as 1200 locations to Jammu and Kashmir with an average monthly volume of about 13,000 messages." These figures prove that although Indian authorities have tried their best to reduce the volume of wireless traffic, they have failed miserably. Although the IB and Home Ministry reports were staggeringly different, they did agree on one point, that of the rise of militant training camps in the AJK and the communication and monetary support being provided to the militants based in Jammu and Kashmir. "Dr Manmohan Singh will talk to the Pakistani prime minister [Shaukat Aziz] about this when he visits Delhi on November 23," sources in the PMO told TFT. However, sources in Islamabad denied that any camps were operating in AJK or anywhere in Pakistan. |
| Posted by:Paul Moloney |