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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Israeli think tank: Only U.S. can neutralize Iran |
| 2005-01-12 |
| An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would pose greater risks than benefits, a new report concluded. The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies said an Israeli attack on Iran would fail to either destroy all of its nuclear facilities or halt the program. The report said Teheran could retaliate by launching massive rocket and missile strikes on the Jewish state — from either Iran or Lebanon. In 1981, Israeli F-16 multi-role fighters destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor in a single bombing mission, said to have set back Baghdad's weapons program about a decade. "An overall assessment suggests that risks involved in an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities outweigh the opportunities," the report, authored by Ephraim Kam, said. "An attack would have to take into consideration operational and other problems that are liable to impede success, while at the same time may spark an Iranian and international response, if only a limited one." Kam, a reserve intelligence officer and regarded as a leading analyst on Teheran's strategic weapons programs, said a military operation to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities could exceed Israel's capabilities. He said such a mission could be conducted only by a superpower such as the United States. [On Tuesday, Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Zeevi-Farkash said Iran would need another six months to acquire full capability to enrich uranium, a major component in the assembly of nuclear weapons. Addressing a seminar at Haifa University, the military intelligence chief said Iran could produce nuclear warheads as early as 2007.] Entitled "Curbing the Iranian Nuclear Threat: The Military Option," the report asserted that Israel has failed to locate all of Iran's nuclear facilities. In contrast to Iraq, Iran has built numerous underground facilities and could quickly reconstitute its nuclear program, the report said. Israel must fulfill a range of requirements before considering a strike on Iran, the report said. The requirements include an "accurate intelligence estimate of the state of the Iranian nuclear program" and a determination that any attack would set back Iran's nuclear program for many years. "Consequently, the conclusion is that Israel must permit the international community to make every possible effort to halt Iran's nuclear program by diplomatic means and to consign military steps to a last resort," the report added. "If it transpires that following the attack the completion of the program is delayed by one or two years only, it is possible that the result does not justify the risks," the report said. "It will also be necessary to take into account that the circumstances will not permit a repeated attack on major facilities that were not damaged in the first attack or that were discovered later." The report said any Israeli attack would also require coordination with the United States. Israeli warplanes on their way to Iran would probably enter U.S. military operation zones in the Gulf or Iraq. "Coordination with the U.S. is itself problematic: there is no certainty that the American administration would agree to such coordination, which brings with it its own set of risks, and it is not certain it would favor a military operation against Iran," the report said. "Nevertheless, the possibility cannot be excluded that the administration would be interested in Israel doing the dirty work, in order to present it as an independent Israeli operation and thereby reduce the risks of association with this operation." The report — in contrast to the assessment by Israeli military intelligence — said Iran appears to no longer depend on foreign suppliers for the acquisition of nuclear technology. Iran was also believed to employ engineers and scientists who could produce enriched uranium and plutonium. "This means that even if several major Iranian nuclear facilities were attacked, such as the centrifuges facility for uranium enrichment in Natanz, Iran would be capable of constructing replacement facilities in a short time," the report said. "Furthermore, the possibility cannot be ignored that Iran has already secretly constructed additional nuclear facilities that have not yet been identified to back up those discovered." The retaliatory options for Iran include the launching of its intermediate-range Shihab-3 missile and massive rocket attacks by Hizbullah from Lebanon. The report said Iran could also order mass-casualty strikes against targets outside Israel. "Given the difficulties and risks involved in implementation of the military option, Israel must adopt the position that the major burden of dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat — by both diplomatic and military means — must be borne by the U.S. administration, and not by Israel," the report said. "In the final analysis, the handling of a problem of this magnitude must be the responsibility of a superpower and not a local country." |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #4 One link in the chain that needs to be broken is Kharg Island. Crippling Iran's influx of hard foreign currency is the best way of impeding their progress towards nuclear capability. China can suck hind tit if they continue to be so careless about contributing to the destabilization of the entire Middle East. From the start, I've maintained that a full decap of the mullahs and revolutionary guard is necessary. This is the only lasting solution to averting a nuclear crisis in the region. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2005-01-12 11:01:33 PM |
| #3 It appears that Iran learned from the Israeli bombing of the Iraqi nuclear plant in 1981. They decentralized their nuclear capability with the idea that a repeat of 1981 might be prevented. I can't believe their facilities are so hardened as to not be vulnerable. Besides, as Frank G. says if you break enough links it takes awhile to get the chain back together again. The options with Iran (and Korea) have become somewhat limited. |
| Posted by: John Q. Citizen 2005-01-12 10:12:13 PM |
| #2 no need to take out ALL facilities - break the chain and as .com says, decapitate the willing leadership |
| Posted by: Frank G 2005-01-12 10:03:22 PM |
| #1 This is not good. If Israel, with its intelligence prowess, can't determine the scope of Iran's activities enough to figure out which facilities need to be hit and where, then the U.S. surely can't be counted on to perform a strike that will do the job, as there is no way in hell our intelligence capability in that area is any better than Israel's. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2005-01-12 10:01:58 PM |