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| Afghanistan/South Asia |
| MQM makes use of Balochistan crisis |
| 2005-01-21 |
| Anna Comnena has been busy Altaf Hussain seems to be playing a complex game but at the end of the day is likely to remain within the government rather than opting out As the crisis in Balochistan continues, the one party that seems to be trying to draw political mileage out of it is the ethnic Mutahidda Qaumi Movement. Recently, its exiled leader Altaf Hussain announced that he would consider walking out of the government if the army launched an operation in Balochistan. But while the announcement has gone down well with the Baloch, it hasn't amused Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, president of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Q who shot back saying the government wouldn't fall even if the MQM were to quit. To make his threat credible, Altaf Hussain personally contacted Nawab Akbar Bugti, chief of the Jamhoori Watan Party and assured him of his support, besides reiterating that the MQM would quit the present government both at the Centre and in Sindh in case of a military operation in Balochistan. Baloch leaders like Bugti and Attaullah Mengal have lauded the MQM announcement for being "timely" and the first of such a nature by any major politico-nationalist party. However, observers question the motives behind Altaf Hussain's announcement. "It is all part of a game to gain popular support and credibility," says an analyst. "He is getting too much out of this coalition to want to throw it away." From the way it looks, Altaf Hussain is playing a more complex game than simply holding out a threat that he says he intends to carry out. The MQM has been at the short end of the military's stick since the 1992 army operation in Sindh and it is only in the past three years that it has made its peace with the army. It has the lion's share of ministries in the Sindh government and is spoiling to contest this year's municipal polls. The party had boycotted the first election under the new plan and has since had to bear the consequences of what it later described as an ill-thought decision. But the red rag for the MQM bull would be any move that could bring the PPP close to the army. For a number of reasons that could become the only viable course for Islamabad were Hussain to actually carry out his threat. The likelihood is that he knows Islamabad is showing force in Balochistan rather than actually intending to use it. Given this it makes sense for him to play his cards in a way that he can sidle up to the Baloch nationalists. In fact, as one analyst told TFT, Altaf Hussain seems to have made a smarter move compared to the Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal which has remained taciturn on the Baloch issue. "It almost seems like they are fine with a military operation in Balochistan," says this analyst. It is possible that the MMA sees the present standoff as being to its advantage especially if it pits the army against the nationalists and by doing that weaken both the sides. Altaf knows that he holds a key position in Sindh — it has 42 seats in the Sindh assembly and 18 in the NA — and the provincial chief minister, Arbab Ghulam Rahim, depends heavily on the MQM legislators. However, if the push came to a shove, the government could always co-opt the PPPP. Of course, that would also change the entire hue of the political game. |
| Posted by:Paul Moloney |