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China-Japan-Koreas
N. Korean Bluff Is Typical, Experts Say
2005-02-12
Yeah, but I've been doing this long enough not to put an awful lot of trust in "experts."
Bluffs and bluster, then capitulation and compromise. North Korea has decades of experience dancing a diplomatic tango with its allies and enemies to get what it wants — and leaving the rest of the world guessing as to the real intent of the isolated communist regime.
Actually, leaving the rest of the world assuming they're all nutz would be more like it...
North Korea played one of its biggest cards yet Thursday when it boldly stated it had nuclear weapons to deter a U.S. invasion, and was staying away from international talks aimed at convincing it to give up its atomic bombs. Still, experts said the move should be read as a negotiating tactic typical of the North's style and its capricious leader, Kim Jong Il. "Until the ultimate point they maintain their stubborn posture, but in the end they know when to bend their position in order not to break up the entire process," said Park Joun-young, a political science professor at Ewha Women's University in Seoul.
Posted by:Fred

#11  All I needed to see was the Kimmy graphic, and I'm happy. Thanks, BigEd, for putting it in earlier this week. I was at work, and didn't see it till way too late.
Posted by: nada   2005-02-12 5:34:54 PM  

#10  Several Pakistani nuclear bomb tests didn't work. Think about it, if the Norks had tested a bomb that worked their negotiating position improves dramatically. If they have one they would have tested it for sure.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-02-12 2:41:11 PM  

#9  Wasn't there some speculation that one of Pakistan's nuclear tests was done on behalf of another country?
Posted by: Robert Crawford   2005-02-12 1:03:27 PM  

#8  JP,
Betting that NK has tech problems is a bad bet. NK traded Pakistan ballistic missile tech for uranium enrichment and bomb tech. The Pakistani nuke tests in 1998 showed them which designs did and did not work (some fizzled). http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/nuke/
Posted by: ed   2005-02-12 11:41:36 AM  

#7  Call his bluff. Tell him if one goes off anywhere in the world, we'll assume North Korea's involved and Pyongyang goes up in smoke.
Posted by: tu3031   2005-02-12 11:05:05 AM  

#6  The NKors must have run into a technical problem developing a bomb that actually works. Semantically their inference to a weapon could indeed be a dirty bomb of some sort. Thus the bluff of a "nuke."
Posted by: JP   2005-02-12 10:55:00 AM  

#5  â€œIt's a pattern that's been seen repeatedly in the past. The North stoked world fears when it threatened to pull out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in the early 1990s, then backed down after signing a 1994 deal with Washington to receive energy aid”.


I’m not sure if backing down really describes what happened. After all they received everything they asked for: food and oil without any effective oversight of their nuclear program.
Posted by: Canaveral Dan   2005-02-12 9:40:45 AM  

#4  Yeah smn that wasn't a nuke blast. A nuclear detonation has a particularly unique seismic signature that shows up easily. Sorta analogs the double flash in an above ground nuclear explosion.
Posted by: Valentine   2005-02-12 8:04:46 AM  

#3   "...Remember they have never tested one."

Phil_b, are we sure that is the case; what was that huge mountain explosion that occured in North Korea a couple of months ago? Has it been definitively ruled out as a nuke test (ie; no radiation), if so, what was that blast?!
Posted by: smn   2005-02-12 5:54:40 AM  

#2  Kimmie is a classic one trick pony. We've seen it.
Posted by: .com   2005-02-12 5:23:39 AM  

#1  The Norks problem is that people have to believe they have a bomb for the bluff to work. Remember they have never tested one. So the US (and Howard) is doing the right thing by suggesting - they don't believe the Norks have a working bomb. IMO the fact they have never tested one is conclusive proof they don't have one that will work.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-02-12 5:09:37 AM  

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