 Analysts were reluctant to point fingers after the assassination of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri in Beirut, saying there were many parties who had an interest in killing him and stirring tensions in Lebanon.
"Did he have any enemies, madame?"
"No, none that I know of! Except Hezbollah. And Syria. And Iran. And al-Qaeda. And the Paleostinians..." |
Commentators said Syria would most likely be blamed for the killing and as a result feel the repercussions hardest.
"And where were you on February 14th?"
"To the east of Lebanon, where I've always been!" |
But many of them wondered what Damascus stood to profit from having a hand in al-Hariri's death.
"Motive, LeGume! What could be the motive? Find the motive, find the real killer, I always say!"
"Where are you going, Inspector?"
"To the golf course!" |
"What exactly would the Syrians gain from this? Precisely because most people would say that this is the Syrians who have done this. It doesn't make any sense," Rime Allaf, Middle East analyst at the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London, UK, said. "The first people who will be hurt by this is Syria. Given the chaos in Lebanon and the rising anger between the factions, analytically Syria loses a lot by this," Allaf told Aljazeera.net.
| "But there is the matter of the matchbook found at the crime scene, with Syria's name written inside it. In a feminine hand." |
The killing was condemned by Syrian and Lebanese government officials.
"Cheeze! Poor old Hariri! Who'da done somethin' like dat?"
"You, perhaps?"
"Us?"
"Yes, you! Syrian and Lebanese government officials!"
"Yez got nuttin' on us! Nuttin!" |
Although a previously unheard of outfit calling itself al-Nasir and Jihad Group in al-Sham claimed responsibility for al-Hariri's assassination, commentators said the magnitude of the blast suggested an intelligence agency was behind the explosion rather than a small group.
"Yes, there's the size of the blast to consider. Normally, people don't keep that much explosives in one place, do they, Inspector?"
"Ah, LeGume! This is Lebanon, remember!" |
Reuters reported security sources as saying the explosive device was sophisticated enough to evade jamming equipment so hi-tech that al-Hariri's passing convoy would interfere with cellphones and televisions. So who plotted al-Hariri's violent death? Murhaf Jouejati a Syrian analyst at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told Aljazeera.net that it was too early to accuse anyone of being behind the killing. "This is not good news. The Syrians are not crazy and they are not going to be assassinating Lebanese officials," he said.
| "Paleostinians, on the other hand, are crazy, and they're not above assassinating Lebanese officials." |
"They (the Syrians) have been engaging in dialogue with the opposition ... I think there are many local parties who would have an interest in the destablisation of Lebanon."
| "Many of these local parties live in Ein el-Hellhole." |
Al-Hairiri had recently joined the opposition in their calls for Syria to withdraw the 14,000 Syrian troops from Lebanon. He resigned from his position as prime minister last October after President Emile Lahud had his term extended, a decision that many saw as being imposed by Syria. A billionaire businessman who had played a key role in the post-war reconstruction process in Lebanon, Al-Hariri was a leader of Lebanon's Sunni Muslim community. Michael Young, a Lebanese political analyst and opinion editor of Lebanese newspaper the Daily Star, said the repercussions for Lebanon and Syria would be grave. "It may very well strengthen the opposition to the Syria presence. There will be a fierce reaction from the Sunni community. I think the government is very embarrassed. They may have to pay for the backlash," he told Aljazeera.net. |