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| Iraq-Jordan |
| Top insurgents prove elusive |
| 2005-02-15 |
| Intensified military raids in Iraq over the past few months have significantly battered the ranks of mid-level insurgents but have scored few gains against the 30 or so most wanted rebels, according to senior U.S. military officers here. As much as a third of this group is thought to move in and out of Iraq with some frequency, the officers said. Many have eluded U.S. and Iraqi forces by a combination of moving constantly, avoiding use of telephones and receiving protection from family or tribal connections. "Are we having success rolling up some of the top-tier leaders? Not at this time," said Brig. Gen. John DeFreitas, the highest-ranking Army intelligence officer in Iraq. "But we're successfully working the second- and third-tier leaders to put pressure on the top tier." After a lull in the days after the Jan. 30 election, insurgents have resumed bombings, suicide attacks and assassinations, an increasing share of them directed against Iraqi civilians and security forces. There are now an average of about 60 attacks each day, close to the rate before the election, according to U.S. military tallies, and most remain concentrated in Sunni Muslim-populated provinces of central and northwestern Iraq. U.S. officers classify nearly half of the insurgency's leaders as "former regime members" -- people who were operatives of the ruling Baath Party, aides to deposed president Saddam Hussein and officers in his military and security services. Another eight are described as associates of Abu Musab Zarqawi, the Jordanian-born insurgent leader. Most of the rest are characterized as foreign terrorists. Intelligence analysts continue to view the insurgency as heavily fragmented and largely the work of small guerrilla cells that lack a central command. But the men on the military's wanted list are suspected of making important contributions in money or tactical coordination. To better manage military and civilian intelligence efforts aimed at the insurgency's upper ranks, U.S. authorities established a special task force late last year. The Iraqi government issued arrest warrants for 29 figures on the most-wanted list last month to enable foreign governments to seize any who surface abroad. More recently, Lt. Gen. John Vines, commander of the 18th Airborne Corps who took over last week as the senior U.S. operational commander in Iraq, has ordered a more focused approach to tracking high-priority insurgents. He calls it the "unblinking eye." Predator drones, manned reconnaissance aircraft and agents on the ground are massed against a particular target to ensure round-the-clock surveillance. Previously, commanders typically had use of these for only limited periods of time. "Rather than spreading those assets over an entire battlefield and getting only partial views, it's much more useful to mass them on a particular target," said Col. Rich Ellis, the senior military intelligence officer for the 18th Airborne Corps. In a world of finite assets, this approach will require commanders to set more specific target priorities and gamble on pursuing them while leaving others for later. But military leaders here appear eager to try new methods, acknowledging that past efforts have fallen short. In the U.S. view, the insurgency remains driven largely by Hussein loyalists bent on restoring themselves to power and preserving the dominance of the Sunni minority that existed in the Hussein years. These people are described as operating at times in loose associations with Zarqawi's network and with other underground Islamic groups that have been blamed for some of the more spectacular suicide bombings. U.S. claims that insurgent operations below the top level have been badly disrupted stem from stepped-up pressure that started last summer with an assault in Najaf against the Mahdi Army militia of a radical Shiite cleric, Moqtada Sadr. That was followed by offensives against insurgents in Samarra, Fallujah, Mosul, northern Babil province and elsewhere. The operations killed several thousand suspected insurgents, and swelled the number of detainees to more than 8,000, according to U.S. figures. U.S. and Iraqi forces seized enormous amounts of weapons as well as documents, computer files and other records said to contain intelligence leads. U.S. commanders said that one of the biggest signs that these offensives worked was the insurgents' inability to disrupt the Jan. 30 elections. Still, several senior officers here with access to intelligence reports said the long-term damage done to the insurgency remains difficult to gauge. They said that the elections, which drew 58 percent of 14.6 million eligible voters, have offered a clear political alternative to the insurgents' rejection of a democratic model and have fortified resistance to violent efforts at intimidation. Maj. Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, commander of the 1st Cavalry Division that patrols Baghdad, reported a surge in tips from Iraqis about local insurgent activity. "My unblinking eye is 7 million people in Baghdad," Chiarelli said. "That's why we keep talking about our tips line that people can call." At the same time, officers said, the strong showings by Shiite and Kurdish parties in the voting could breathe new life into the insurgency by making Sunnis feel further excluded from power. U.S. commanders worry that insurgents, in an attempt to foment sectarian strife, will intensify attacks on Shiite targets. Under the circumstances, military leaders here say, political compromise and power-sharing that emerge in coming months are likely to have as much to do with shaping the security environment as in shaping a new government and constitution. "The political outreach will have more impact on the insurgency than our military operations," one U.S. general said. Also key, according to U.S. commanders, will be the level of cooperation from Iraq's neighbor, Syria. Iraqi Baath Party loyalists are said to be using that country as a base for financing and supplying the insurgents. So the Bush administration has sought Syrian help to stop the movement of fighters and equipment across the border into Iraq and crack down on insurgent leaders in Syria. While Syria has taken some action on the border, it has not been as aggressive against Iraqi operatives inside the country, several U.S. officers said. Iraq authorities recently stirred speculation of a major breakthrough in the hunt for top insurgents by reporting instances in which they claimed that Zarqawi was nearly caught. A senior U.S. commander here in a position to know, however, said he was unaware of any such case. Having been burned in the past by grossly underestimating the size of the insurgency, military intelligence experts here now shy away from providing new estimates, at least in public. In private they report that they are looking hard at possible new methods for assessing the size and capabilities of the armed opposition. Ultimately, given the cultural barriers involved, the best prospects for penetrating the insurgency may come not from greater U.S. efforts but from Iraqi efforts, U.S. officers said. As part of a renewed U.S. effort this year to beef up Iraq's security forces, a U.S. advisory team will be assigned full time to Iraq's intelligence service, and intelligence assistance teams will operate in the field with Iraqi military units, officers said. The number of counterinsurgency raids also will rise, Vines predicted. "But they will be by Iraqi soldiers and police," he said. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #1 Sneaky buggers, ain't they? |
| Posted by: mojo 2005-02-15 10:37:32 AM |