A Pakistani academic told a meeting here on Friday that according to a recent survey taken in Balochistan, 65 percent of those polled favoured "armed struggle" for the achievement of their objectives. Dr Ayesha Siddiqa, currently doing a fellowship at the Woodrow Wilson Centre, said this while reading a paper on Balochistan at the Johns Hopkins University. She said only 26.6 percent of the population was literate and civic facilities were lacking. Tracing the history of the province, she said Balochistan alone had resisted the acquisition of its land by the army. She described the present situation is one of "complete chaos and mayhem". She was sceptical about the state claiming that it retained control of the situation. There were fears, she added, of the country's break-up as happened in 1971.Pakistan, she said, is a "troubled state under siege" and hence there was greater use of authority being witnessed. She was quick to add that the Pakistani state had far more resilience today than it had in 1971 and was not "unravelling." Nevertheless, what was happening in Balochistan today could not be ignored because it was going to define the future of Pakistan.Dr Siddiqa, who is working on a book detailing the commercial and entrepreneurial side of the Pakistan army, warned that Balochistan would prove a "major catalyst" and if the state continued to pretend that all was well and under control, it would be faced with a few surprises. It was her view that because of what was taking place in Balochistan, federal-provincial relations would have to change. The situation could also change the "dynamics of key organisations such as the army". How the top management of the Pakistan army handles the situation, she added, would determine the course of events. How the crisis was managed would affect the future of the federation. The main grouse of the people of Balochistan is, she explained, that their resources are bringing disproportionate benefit to others not to them. There are "multiple faultlines," she said, in Balochistan, some of them real, some of them "created" ones. The Balochis fear that they are going to be turned into a minority. She said secession was a "lesser possibility". She was of the opinion that the "divide and rule" policy followed by the federal government can no longer work.
She said the situation had become more complicated because of the induction of religious and extremist elements. Another factor was the Baloch-Pushtun divide. There were also accusations of foreign intervention and India and Iran had been named as being responsible for that.