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Home Front: Tech
Official: Bird Flu Pandemic Is Imminent
2005-02-23
World Health Organization officials urged governments on Wednesday to act swiftly to control the spread of the bird flu, warning that the world is in grave danger of a deadly pandemic triggered by the virus. The bird flu has killed 45 people in Asia over the past year, in cases largely traced to contact with sick birds, and experts have warned the H5N1 virus could become far deadlier if it mutates into a form that can be easily transmitted among humans. A global pandemic could kill millions, they say. "We at WHO believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic," Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO's Western Pacific regional director, said Wednesday. He said the world is "now overdue" for an influenza pandemic, since mass epidemics have occurred every 20-30 years. It has been nearly 40 years since the last one... The mortality rate among identified patients who contract the disease from chickens and ducks is about 72 percent, Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Monday. She added that her agency was preparing for a possible pandemic next year...
Posted by:Anonymoose

#9  The current H5N1 virus doesn't transmit easily because it hasn't yet exchanged genes with a human infuenza virus strain. When that change occurs, it will be as easy to catch as the common flu. That's what's got experts worried, or should I say panicked?
Posted by: HV   2005-02-23 10:53:36 PM  

#8  Sooo 45 dead in one year, some 77 sick total if 72% fatality holds true. Meanwhile, regular flu in the US alone strikes some 500,000 with 2,000 a year in fatalities.
I'm not impressed.....
Posted by: mmurray821   2005-02-23 8:09:04 PM  

#7  If you are interested this site does a good job of tracking bird flu. Although be warned Niman thinks undiagnosed spread is common. He thought the same about SARS and was wrong.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-02-23 5:33:14 PM  

#6  Bird flu virus found in flies. I would question the article's claim that flies cannot transmit the disease. BTW moose it is definitely person to person transmissable there have been several recent clusters. However, it is not easily transmissable.
Posted by: phil_b   2005-02-23 5:26:53 PM  

#5  I just wish it had a more elegant name. Dead's dead, but a pandemic killer ought to be more romantic...
Posted by: Seafarious   2005-02-23 5:09:47 PM  

#4  This time is different.

Ten years ago, scientists first expressed concern because statistically we were late for having a killer flu, which comes cyclically.

Then, about 7 years ago, the avian flu variant first appeared. It was troubling because it seemed to be a souped-up version of the usual avian flu, so precautions were taken. Millions of chickens have already been slaughtered, replenished, then their replacements in turn slaughtered, when this strain was detected, and to no avail. The strain is too well embedded in wild fowl to be destroyed.

Now, only one thing has to happen for this to become a nightmare plague. Right now, humans only contract the disease from exposure to contaminated ducks and chicken. But if the virus mutates slightly, so that it can *easily* be transmitted from human to human, the nightmare begins.

Get this straight, if you catch this disease from a bird right now there is a 72 PERCENT CHANCE THAT YOU WILL DIE. And if the disease is transmitted from person to person, this mortality rate will stay the same.

The latest news on this is the WHO is contemplating WIPING OUT MOST OF THE WILD DUCKS IN SOUTHERN ASIA. Maybe 500 million birds killed to stop this disease.

We are danger close to having a catastrophe beyond anything the human species has ever experienced.

And there's not a damn thing they can do to stop it.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2005-02-23 5:03:44 PM  

#3  If we work this right, we could solve SS, Medicare and most of our individual debt in one fell swoop.
Posted by: anonymous2u   2005-02-23 3:11:57 PM  

#2  

Bird flu?
Posted by: BigEd   2005-02-23 2:44:56 PM  

#1  This is getting to be an annual event, like hurricanes and union strikes.
Posted by: BH   2005-02-23 2:31:45 PM  

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