It is a sign of the quality of the Lebanese leadership, from President Emile Lahoud on down, that it still remained in place a day after the massive opposition demonstrations of Monday. A million hostile yelps notwithstanding, the regime soldiered on, immune to irony, indifferent to a scornful electorate.But if reports emerging about the United Nations fact-finding mission into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri are true, the regime may not so much resign as soon flee the country. London's The Independent has published an article by Robert Fisk suggesting the Lebanese authorities had tampered with the Hariri death scene. While Fisk didn't explain who his sources were, an educated guess suggests it was people within the UN team itself, even as the accusation of government manipulation has been circulating for weeks in Beirut.
Fisk wrote: "The UN's Irish, Egyptian and Moroccan investigation team has now been joined by three Swiss bomb experts following the discovery that many of the smashed vehicles in Hariri's convoy were moved from the scene of the massacre only hours after the bombing and before any time for an independent investigation." He restated a widespread suspicion that the bomb that killed Hariri was placed under the roadway, which would contradict the official Lebanese theory that what happened was the work of a suicide car bomber.
How might the UN react to such allegations? According to Fisk, "Some members of the Hariri family have been told that the report of the UN inquiry team will be so devastating that it will force a full international investigation of the murder of 'Mr. Lebanon' and his entourage."
Perhaps as remarkable as Fisk's allegations is the Lebanese government's ineptness in dealing with case. Hariri was killed a month ago, and still investigators have not even released a preliminary report on the crime. Rather, in early March an unidentified "judicial source" close to the investigation told Reuters that Hariri was "almost certainly killed by a suicide car bomb." The source said that a report would be released a week later, but none has been.
Most absurdly, the source said that "evidence [for a suicide bomber] came from a security camera at a nearby bank which caught parts of the incident," proving that the attacker had slowed his car and allowed Hariri's motorcade to pass, before triggering his bomb. In fact the video in question, seen by journalists at The Daily Star, shows nothing conclusive. It was taken by the HSBC Bank camera, and the angle of the device is such that the point of detonation is, in fact, not visible. A visit to the area where Hariri was killed would easily confirm this.
Security sources also told Reuters that DNA tests establish that the man who claimed responsibility for the assassination, Taysir Abu Adas, was at the crime scene. One can be dubious when an unidentified "security source" (as opposed to the specialist responsible) announces the results of a DNA test, particularly before any final report is released. However, Abu Adas' presence, if true, is hardly conclusive. Whoever took the trouble of asking him to prepare a taped statement on the crime would have probably ensured he would be among the dead. The question is who ordered the hit and why the authorities have sought to spin reporting on the murder without presenting any evidence for their claims.
The government was presented with a tough explanatory nut to crack once confronted with the reality of Hariri's death. The fact that the explosion occurred in the middle of the road ruled out a parked car bomb. When the Abu Adas video appeared, officials thought they had found a vaguely workable theory - that an Islamist group affiliated to Al-Qaeda was the perpetrator. But then Al-Qaeda took the trouble to deny it and Abu Adas' father, who has since reportedly died, told investigators his son didn't know how to drive. So, the goalposts were shifted to suggest that Abu Adas had been chauffeured to his suicide mission. In that case the "security sources" might have helped not by announcing that Abu Adas' DNA was identified, but by doing DNA tests of the remains of all those found onsite, so that a determination could be made as to whether there actually was a driver. But the last we heard, several victims, namely Syrian laborers, were unaccounted for.
If Fisk is right that the UN fact-finding mission will recommend an international inquiry, this could be the rare murder of a Lebanese politician that is professionally investigated, and solved. A million people might count for little with the regime, but being held responsible for covering up a crime that has united the Lebanese in opposition to Syria is an altogether different proposition. What remains of the Syrian order in Lebanon would swiftly disintegrate, and Hizbullah, which has also called for an explanation of Hariri's death, would be unable to prop it up.
In fact, nothing will prop up the present Lebanese regime once the Syrians depart. If an uneventful transition takes place, one anticipates that the next Lebanese Parliament will represent the majority of Lebanese identifying with the goals of the opposition. Such a body might be able to amend the Constitution and terminate Lahoud's mandate. However, some of the president's foes suggest this process is complicated, so that it would be better to oust him sooner, politically.
What is increasingly clear, however, is that the greatest threat to this presidency, and to the Syria-inspired edifice it represents, is an answer to the one question on everybody's lips last Monday: Who killed Rafik Hariri?