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China-Japan-Koreas
Nuclear speculation
2005-03-29
Amid the Bush administration's tough talk toward North Korea, a new fear is emerging: Could Pyongyang test a nuclear weapon this year? Some insiders think so. "Knowing Kim Jong Il 's track record for brinksmanship, I'd bet on it," says Larry Wilkerson , who worked the North Korea issue as former Secretary of State Colin Powell 's chief of staff. "If we don't resume negotiations, I'd give it a 70-30 chance." The CIA is not predicting anything imminent. But then again, it missed India's nuke test in 1998. "The only thing that would preclude this," says Wilkerson, "is if they don't have a bomb."
Posted by:Dan Darling

#3  "If we don’t resume negotiations, I’d give it a 70-30 chance."

I don't see now the NorKs are going to be stopped by "negotiations".
Posted by: Bomb-a-rama   2005-03-29 10:38:17 AM  

#2  +1 My personal speculation is that a lack of nuclear material and/or a working design is the only reason they've yet to light one off. As soon as they're comfortable that they'll succeed and that they have enough material for a few more cores we'll see the Korean penensula light up like a Christmas tree.
Posted by: AzCat   2005-03-29 7:31:31 AM  

#1   "If we don’t resume negotiations, I’d give it a 70-30 chance." And if we do resume negotiations, I’d give it a 70-30 chance.
Posted by: trailing wife   2005-03-29 5:25:11 AM  

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