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| Iraq-Jordan |
| Let's Make a Deal and Stage a Coup |
| 2005-04-05 |
| April 5, 2005: More than two months after the January 30th election, the legislators have finally formed a government. The major problem was agreeing on a Sunni Arab to be Speaker of the Assembly. In a formula similar to that adopted by Lebanon (and many other ethnically divided nations), a Shia Arab was to be Prime Minister (the most powerful job), a Kurd the President (head of state, much less power) and a Sunni Arab the Speaker of the Assembly (also less power.) Ministry jobs were to reward everyone (including smaller minorities like Turks and Christians) in proportion. But the Sunni Arabs have an additional problem in that many of their prominent men are tainted by past association with Saddam or the Baath Party. Islamic conservatives are also avoided, as is anyone with too enthusiastic a history of corrupt behavior. All that narrows the field, and it took a long time to agree on an acceptable man. The Sunni Arab who became the Speaker, Hajim al Hassani, is a fifty year old investment banker who has spent the last 25 years living in the United States. The Iraqi Sunni Arabs are still intent on regaining control of the country, and are now keen on doing it later, rather than sooner. The Sunni Arabs know they have an education and experience advantage over the more numerous Shia Arabs. They know that powerful Sunni Arab nations in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, will back them in many ways. The fear of Islamic conservatism from Shia Iran can also be manipulated. With many experienced, loyal and capable Sunni Arab officers in the police and army, peace can be restored. The largely Sunni Arab terrorists are now fighting among themselves, angry at the failure of their bloody efforts, and not seeing any way out. Sunni Arabs see these radicals as impractical losers, and have turned on them. Now the more traditional Sunni Arab leadership sees a familiar path to power. A decade or so of peace and prosperity, followed by powerful Sunni Arab army and police commanders staging a coup. For the good of the country, or at least for the good of the Sunni Arabs. Democracy will have a hard time surviving in Iraq. Most of the people are starting to understand what a working democracy means, and are wondering how some serious problems will be overcome. First, there's the corruption. Iraq is a nation of merchants, where everything is for sale. Everything. If you can sell or barter your daughters for a marriage, then why not a government job, or contract, or vote? "Honest government" is much easier said than done. And then there are the tribes. The refuge of most Iraqis in the face of corrupt and tyrannical government, the tribal leaders shift support when they see it in their interests. Saddam was saved from a 1991 Shia Arab rebellion by a timely intervention of powerful tribal leaders (including some Shia ones). The tribes received some economic and political concessions. After Saddam fell, the tribes did not want to deal with foreigners. Two years later, they do. Alliances with al Qaeda, Baathists and Islamic conservatives have not worked. There's now an elected Iraqi government with access to billions of dollars in oil money, and a growing force of police and troops. The tribes are like ships at sea, they move in the direction the prevailing winds push them. Even if democracy takes hold in Iraq, the tribal connections will be meaningful for generations to come. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #4 .com - this is Strategypage, not Stratfor. I'd be dancing in the street if Stratfor produced something as sane on the Shia question as this analysis, as little as I agree with it. Stratfor would be frothing about Iranian influence in Shia-dominated ministries, at the very least. |
| Posted by: Mitch H. 2005-04-05 2:22:53 PM |
| #3 Article: Now the more traditional Sunni Arab leadership sees a familiar path to power. A decade or so of peace and prosperity, followed by powerful Sunni Arab army and police commanders staging a coup. The problem with the writer's thesis is that the Shiite-controlled government will mean a military dominated by Shiite recruits and officers. The writer is transposing American ideas of merit-based (ability-based) appointments on Iraq. Most non-Western governments around the world that are multi-ethnic or multi-religious do not appoint people into government positions based on ability. Thus, there is no danger of Sunnis being placed in positions where they can pose a danger to Shiite majority rule. This is why the Sunni remnants are fighting tooth-and-nail - because only token positions will ever be available to them. Whether the Shiites recognize it or not, Uncle Sam is the ultimate guarantor of majority rule in Iraq. If they do recognize it and insist that Uncle Sam sticks around, there is *no* possible way a Sunni coup could succeed. * Note that the solution in most non-Western countries to disgruntlement among ethnic or religious minorities has not been to appease, but to repress them. This repression usually succeeds, unless Uncle Sam intervenes, as it did in Yugoslavia, forcing the partition of that country. This is one reason Uncle Sam has attracted a lot of dislike around the world - every country has a digruntled minority, and the prospect of military intervention followed by territorial dismemberment by Uncle Sam in response to the country's repression of a rebellion is not particularly attractive. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2005-04-05 10:29:54 AM |
| #2 This hits some interesting points - maybe pretty close to the mark - both as analysis of a few of the dangers and of the players and the likely Sunni menu of strategies. It's a little spotty, but not bad for StratFor. But the Shi'a and Kurds have strategies, as well. I'd wager the Sunni military people won't be taking over the military unless everyone else falls asleep for a decade, ala Rip Al Winkle. Certainly, since we're talking about arms, matériel, and training, the Kurds and Shi'a recognize the dangers and will have much to say about who gets in and who gets authority. The Tribes. That's where the real rub will come from, regards Iraq turning the corner on yesterday and adopting a successful democratic system, as almost everyone blindly defers to their tribal leaders. Indoctrinated even beyond their favored flavor of Islam. The sellouts and loyalty auctions that occur sound vaguely familiar - Braveheart, perhaps? Lol... Corruption and shifting loyalties are not unique in Arabia. But, indeed, the tribal system is the keeper of tradition, the enforcer of customs. In the end, that's what it's about: customs, and Twain said it best: "There isn't anything you can't stand, if only you are born and bred to it." "Customs do not concern themselves with right or wrong or reason." "Laws are sand, customs are rock. Laws can be evaded and punishment escaped, but an openly transgressed custom brings sure punishment." "A crime persevered in a thousand centuries ceases to be a crime, and becomes a virtue. This is the law of custom, and custom supersedes all other forms of law." After mulling it over for quite a spell... That's a steep hill - and the longer we are there, the better, for we are the fly in the ointment, the sand in the well-oiled gears of their traditions, the logic that can't be completely ignored when we succeed acting in spite of, and in contradiction to, their customs - and show ourselves to be little different, otherwise, from them. Where we stop being ourselves and cater to their dysfunctional societal customs, that soft-power approach so beloved of State and the Tranzis and people who wouldn't know an Arab from a organ grinder's monkey, we significantly diminish our greatest gift to them: a highly successful example of an alternative to their customs. Recall what you've read from the better-educated Iraqi bloggers and it rings true. Time in-country and constant interaction will be the key. It won't magically happen overnight, but the children who are interacting with our military will see the differences and, in their turn, challenge and change the old ways. We just have to be there long enough for it to rub off on them as something more than a passing oddity. I believe our military has demonstrated both here in Iraq and in Afghanistan just how powerful and influential their example can be - and it stands in stark contrast to the State, UN, and NGO looters and fools who don't have a clue what they're doing. The military will have the greatest peacetime impact - and as our ambassadors, they are far superior to the "experts". They just rock. My $0.02. |
| Posted by: .com 2005-04-05 10:15:09 AM |
| #1 a nice strategy for the Sunni arabs, but I fear Saddam has ruined it, the way the 9/11 terrorists ruined it for your average joe "take this plane to Cuba" hijacker. Shiites who might sat back and were fatalistic during Sunni coups in the '50s and '60s are always going to worry that a Sunni coup results in another Saddamite horror. They'll resist as they didnt in the past - might result in a true civil war, worse than the current mess, but probably not an elegant coup d'etat. |
| Posted by: Liberalhawk 2005-04-05 10:01:05 AM |