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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Invading Taiwan and the Pesky Pescadores |
| 2005-04-29 |
| April 29, 2005: Discussion of China's plans to invade Taiwan often ignore the smaller, Taiwan controlled islands, that the Chinese invasion forces will either bypass, or hit first, on their way to Taiwan. The smaller islands, Quemoy and Matsu, are within artillery range of the mainland. But a group of larger islands, the Pescadores, are within artillery range of Taiwan itself. The Pescadores have an area of only 127 square kilometers, and a population of 90,000. There is also a military garrison on the island, including an armored brigade, plus anti-aircraft missiles and mobile anti-ship missile units. The Pescadores are doubly important, as they are opposite the most important landing beaches on Taiwan. Any invasion force must seize a port as soon as possible, in order to bring in more troops and supplies. You don't have much chance of conquering the island until you've done that. The two best landing are areas, for seizing nearby ports, are in the northwest and southwest regions of Taiwan. The better of the two is in the southwest, where the ports of Kaohsiung and Tsinan are near the landing beaches. Those beaches are also near the Pescadores islands. If China uses some of its airborne and amphibious forces to take the Pescadores, they will have a base for the next stage of the operation; the landing on Taiwan itself. But it is likely that speed will be the most important element. The faster the Chinese establish themselves on Taiwan, the better their bargaining position with the United States, and the rest of the world. If China does not win a quick victory, the economic sanctions start kicking in. Billions of dollars of cancelled orders from the United States and Europe put millions of Chinese out of work, and make the invasion very unpopular. Should the invasion prove unsuccessful as well, a change in Chinese leadership is likely to quickly follow. One way or another, the Pescadores islands will play a major role in any assault on Taiwan. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #10 Got click happy and forgot to add the ChiComs will not invade before they've sent tons of spec ops into Taiwan, crippled things as much as they can w/o bringing allot of attention to it (ie fires and 'gremlins' into the communication and electrical infrastructure. I think all this talk of invasion is an attempt to hoodwink the world. I think they'll take Taiwan w/o a shoot being fired, from the inside. |
| Posted by: Yosemite Sam 2005-04-29 11:43:39 PM |
| #9 This article points out the obvious landing areas. I thinkg the ChiComs have studied our D-Day and noticed we hit the unobvious landing areas. Give some attention to those! |
| Posted by: Yosemite Sam 2005-04-29 11:39:46 PM |
| #8 always good to have your take, JM. Establishes the goal line for teh field of discussion |
| Posted by: Frank G 2005-04-29 11:11:12 PM |
| #7 Don'y count the Russkis out. i.e. alleged PC/Deniable "REACTIONARY" milfors - America is being labeled by the Left as the true terrorist of the world, and post-Beslan there are dem dar a'Taliban and Al Qaeda in CANADA. America can't help Taiwan or South Korea, etal iff the USDOD has to face Russian /Commie milfors in NORAM whom invaded "accidentally" looking for Radical Islam in Clintonian Americas. The Left > America is to be manipulated by every side, issue, or controversy - you know, Lefty and Socialist Secular Moralism/Ethicism where one doesn't have to believe in God to [always] tell the truth!? Without American firepower andor leadership around, ot not around for awhile, it leaves only the outnumbered local forces! |
| Posted by: JOsephMendiola 2005-04-29 10:38:46 PM |
| #6 I agree Barbara, but it does allow them to save face because even they have to realize the chance of losing such a conflict over Taiwan is pretty high. I wouldn't be surprised if such a realization is why they've started emphasizing the bad Japanese lately. Nobody expects them to invade Japan and they can leverage Japan over the Security Council seat so they have something to gain and little to lose there. But they are not entirely rational (or at least the don't seem so) so I wouldn't bet money on any outcome. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2005-04-29 2:58:40 PM |
| #5 Of course, rjs' strategy assume the ChiComs are rational. I sure wouldn't bet the farm on that. |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2005-04-29 2:19:37 PM |
| #4 With the head of the KMT in Peking making nice with the Reds, my belief that Taiwan will fold under an invasion grows even stronger. There are a whole lot of Taiwanese prepared to accept a fait accompli. |
| Posted by: Chuck Simmins 2005-04-29 1:10:12 PM |
| #3 Taiwan should bury a bunch of fiber-optics lines from Taiwan to the Pescadores. They should then have a sensor net wired into the island chain and connected to Taiwan via the fiber. This could provide great remote targeting of any occupying force. Just turn up the CAM production line in their Logitech factories and put them to a useful purpose. BTW some of these cams are stand alone remote controlable web sites. They would be ideal. The wifi ones could be useful too. Ad in a few remote guns and it would get real interesting. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2005-04-29 12:09:11 PM |
| #2 Not a bad strategy rjs, one that would eventually work for the Chineese. |
| Posted by: Shipman 2005-04-29 11:52:49 AM |
| #1 Remember how bloody the Normandy Beech invasion was? That's nothing compared to what the Chinese will face crossing such a long stretch of water against a country determined to defend their own soil after decades of preparing their defenses, knowing that the US will be there to back them up if they can just survive the initial assault. Basically Tiawan can use up everything, reserves and all, taking out Chinese planes and boats while China has to keep a massive reserve to keep their logistical tail defended against the most powerful nation in the world which will arrive pretty soon after any assault. If I were China I'd dump the invasion option and simply declare Taiwan a Special Autonomous Area, refer to the Taiwanese President as Governor, and continue the fiction. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2005-04-29 11:24:48 AM |