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China-Japan-Koreas
N. Korean Official: Nuclear Test 'Indispensible' Step
2005-05-09
EFL:SEOUL, May 9 -- A North Korean official told a delegation of Japanese academics visiting Pyongyang last week that a nuclear test was an "indispensable" step toward proving the nation's military capabilities to the world and suggested the government might conduct one soon, according to the head of the delegation. Word of the new North Korean threat came even as the Pyongyang government appeared to hint late Sunday night that it may be willing to return, under certain conditions, to multilateral talks aimed at its nuclear disarmament. During those talks, which have been stalled for the past 11 months, North Korea previously suggested it might conduct a test. But the statement to the Japanese delegation marked the first time officials in the secretive Stalinist state have issued such a threat since intelligence emerged that North Korea may be in the midst of preparing an underground nuclear test.

Yasuhiko Yoshida, a former U.N. proliferation expert and North Korea specialist at Osaka University of Economics and Law, said in a telephone interview that he had held two discussions on May 3 with North Korean officials at the Institute for Disarmament and Peace, a Pyongyang think tank linked to the North Korean Foreign Ministry. Yoshida said the key comment came during the second discussion -- a phone call from the institute's deputy director, Pak Hyon Jae, who Yoshida said used studied language and spoke through an interpreter. Pak, according to Yoshida, said a North Korean nuclear "test is indispensable," adding, "You'll find that out soon."

"It is important that this official at a government think tank admitted that nuclear testing was necessary," said Yoshida, a former diplomat with the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency. Yoshida was leading a humanitarian medical mission to Pyongyang and spoke on Monday after returning from the eight-day trip. Yoshida's account sent a fresh wave of alarm through North Asian media outlets at a time when fears that North Korea soon may conduct a nuclear test are running high. U.S. officials have privately said that spy satellite photos indicate North Korea could be making preparations for a nuclear test at a site in the northeast of the country; they have also warned that the detected activity could be a North Korean ruse.
Posted by:Steve

#11  One other point:

The reports on the North Korean test preparations state that no equipment for monitoring has been seen.
This is similar to the Pakistani 1998 tests. Reports at the time said they quickly excavated a shaft, buried a bomb and set it off.
No real attempt at gathering data was observed.
Why not? Answer is simple. The design was not theirs and they were unable to modify it. Test data is meaningless in this context. They could do nothing with it. The physics is beyond their capabilities.

Posted by: john   2005-05-09 20:19  

#10  Their bulk purchase of medical triggered spark gaps (used in lithotripers but usable in nukes) is also notable.

Pakistan is simply unable to manufacture all the components in their bombs. They are not buying machinery to manufacture components, they are buying the actual triggers for weapons.

We also know their missiles are Chinese and North Korean imports (but painted islamic green). They have never made a satellite laucher. What kind of rocket program could they have?

The Chinese strategy of arming proxy rogue nations in order to tie down potential opponents is responsible for this mess.

Posted by: john   2005-05-09 20:06  

#9  good point, John - and hired hands have less motivation to make things perfect
Posted by: Frank G   2005-05-09 19:43  

#8  Some of the weapons did fizzle. Even those that worked gave a lower than expected yield (from the seismic signature).
The Chinese design may have been proven but Pakistani engineering capability is another matter.
The AQ Khan documents from Libya (bomb blueprints in Chinese, with Urdu translations) show the Chinese had to provide very detailed instructions for component fabrication.

Here is an interesting fact:
During the first 40 years, all the universities and research institutions in Pakistan produced only 128 PhDs in scientific disciplines. Of these 89 were produced in 1982-86.
Most of these PhDs were in chemical and biological sciences

http://www.mshel.com/book00079.html

No country that has produced just 128 science PHDs in 40 years can have any sort of scientific or engineering capability to produce nuclear weapons or missile systems.

Posted by: john   2005-05-09 19:30  

#7  I remember reading something similar. Old saying adapted: If a test fails in the forest can you still hear the spittle....
Posted by: Frank G   2005-05-09 19:12  

#6  John, my understanding is that a couple of the Paki booms fizzed. Any truth to that?
Posted by: Shipman   2005-05-09 18:55  

#5  Nuke the Nuke Test Dammit!
Posted by: Valentine   2005-05-09 16:58  

#4  Pakistan's bomb was of Chinese design. They have little, if any, ability to design weapons on their own.
Posted by: john   2005-05-09 16:19  

#3  The NORKS are running a pretty good sized risk here, if it's a pure Paki design you got a fair chance of a fizzle.
Posted by: Shipman   2005-05-09 15:56  

#2  Who says we can't?
Posted by: Tom   2005-05-09 14:37  

#1  Too bad we can't arrange an 'early test' while kimmie-boy-the-baby-killer and his henchmen are drooling over their latest toy.

(Meanwhile their people are starving...).
Posted by: CrazyFool   2005-05-09 14:24  

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