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| WHO Urges Nations World Wide To Prepare For Virus Outbreak |
| 2005-05-20 |
| THE United Nations health agency has called on countries around the world to prepare for a threatened flu pandemic after a study in Vietnam showed signs of greater human-to-human transmission of bird flu. "If somebody should need warnings that another pandemic is coming, we've had enough and we should continue very intensively with preparations for pandemic preparedness," the World Health Organisation's (WHO) top influenza expert, Dr Klaus Stohr, said. Fears that a deadlier strain of flu might spread rapidly around the world on a similar scale to pandemics of the last century have been revived, with the emergence of the H5N1 bird-flu virus among humans in Asia. The study of human bird-flu outbreaks in Vietnam until April 2005 suggested an evolution of infections by the H5N1 virus. The WHO, which examined the findings with experts from Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam earlier this month, also called for an immediate boost in monitoring for possible pandemic influenza in all countries affected by H5N1 in birds. "The changes in the epidemiological patterns are consistent with the possibility that recently emerging H5N1 viruses may be more infectious for humans," a report on the study said. While that meant a greater number of people might be infected by poultry, there was also evidence that human-to-human infections, which have been found several times since the strain was first detected in Hong Kong in 1997, was strengthening, the UN health agency said. "It is possible that avian flu viruses are becoming more capable of human-to-human transmission," the report said. The WHO said the study in Vietnam was not conclusive, however, because of the relatively small number of cases. "The report was in a grey zone. We have enough data as scientists to be concerned, but at the same time we don't have enough to be sure," the WHO's head of communicable diseases, Guenael Rodier, said. Although the implications were not clear cut, "they demonstrate that the viruses are continuing to evolve and pose a continuing and potentially growing pandemic threat," the report said. "The train is going in a certain direction and the recent findings are certainly not going to alleviate our concern," Mr Stohr told journalists. Thirty-six people have died from bird flu in Vietnam since 2003, as well as 16 in Thailand and Cambodia. Human-to-human transmission is believed to have occurred in two clusters of cases in Vietnam and one in Thailand. Concerns have been raised because a pandemic strain may develop through a series of small steps that, taken individually, might not be a clear signal an epidemic was about to start, according to the WHO. The changes seen in north Vietnam included more and larger human clusters of the disease, an increased mean age of the victims and a lower fatality rate. "We do expect that a pandemic virus will adapt better to humans, but will be less severe and transmit better," Dr Rodier said. Analysis of genes from bird and human forms of H5N1 from several countries also suggested changes in the virus, the report said. Dr Stohr said three suspected asymptomatic cases in Vietnam - where people are infected with the virus but do not fall ill - were unusual and it was not clear if they were contagious. "Scientifically it would be quite a surprise if asymptomatic carriers were found," he told journalists. Other interpretations for the trends observed in Vietnam were raised, including transmission through contaminated water or food, or infection from poultry that carried the virus but did not show symptoms, or greater persistence of the virus in the environment. A second human case of bird flu was identified in under a week in Vietnam on Tuesday. |
| Posted by:Spavirt Pheng6042 |
| #17 killed half the guys in my fraternity...or something like that....? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2005-05-20 21:14 |
| #16 Anybody old engh to remember the devastating outbreak of Swine Flu? |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2005-05-20 21:07 |
| #15 gives free-range a whole new flavor. |
| Posted by: DIM YUK 2005-05-20 20:48 |
| #14 The usual system for raising pigs and chickens in Asia is to house the chickens on slat floors above the pigs. The pigs eat the chicken droppings, and get about 40% of their nutrition from them. You couldnt design a better system for getting disease to cross the species barrier, and once pigs are infected it is a very easy jump to humans. |
| Posted by: Grunter 2005-05-20 14:54 |
| #13 We will get right on this. But first we demand that the United State withdraw all forces from Vietnam. |
| Posted by: K. Annan 2005-05-20 14:00 |
| #12 I'm sure the UN will come up with a solution after a few conferences in exotic locations to discuss having a luncheon or three in Vietnam for some on-hand analysis |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2005-05-20 13:56 |
| #11 Hasn't WHO been screaming about a world wide outbreak for several years now? Starting to sound like a cry of Wolf to me. Still, like a broken clock they can be right twice a day.... |
| Posted by: mmurray821 2005-05-20 13:00 |
| #10 "The WHO said the study in Vietnam was not conclusive, however, because of the relatively small number of cases." And no word in this article on what the preparations should be. More money to the U.N., no doubt. I'm putting this one in the file with nuclear winter and global warming. John Bolton will take care of this. |
| Posted by: Tom 2005-05-20 09:32 |
| #9 they don't take the basic hygeine precautions most of us take for granted. Combine that with close proximity of domestic animals and food preparation If that isn't filthy, what is? |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2005-05-20 08:29 |
| #8 how bout the gov'ts in the region (yes, you, China and VN) be honest about outbreaks and teh extent? Might be nice to have a response better than the SARS process. Maybe the mighty China will be brought low by a pandemic reduction in population, rural to urban? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2005-05-20 08:12 |
| #7 Are people raising animals in conditions that promote the propagation of the various flu strains that are seemingly in constant threat of jumping to humans? Essentially? Yes. Even in India there are a lot of street level food bazaars (I know my family has shopped in them often enough) where poultry is basically up for grabs, literally in some cases, hygenically separating them isn't even thought of and the idea of diseases from animals like chickens doesn't even cross the mind. Then theres also rural to semi-urban farm areas where you can find chickens roaming around. The shanty town areas aren't too likely to see too many chickens around because that would end up on someones dinner plate right quick, but other than that theres very little in the way of major separation of areas of where poultry in general tends to live/feed and where humans often live/feed in places like that. |
| Posted by: Valentine 2005-05-20 05:07 |
| #6 I wouldn't call them filthy. Its more they don't take the basic hygeine precautions most of us take for granted. Combine that with close proximity of domestic animals and food preparation and you have the basic cause. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2005-05-20 04:21 |
| #5 Basically, Asian farmers are filthy people. That's it in a nutshell. You wouldn't believe what I had to go through to convince my cook to wash her hands before she prepared my food. And that's after she's cleaned the house...imagine cleaning the chicken coops and then preparing dinner. |
| Posted by: gromky 2005-05-20 03:32 |
| #4 Not with a bang, but a wheezing whimper. |
| Posted by: .com 2005-05-20 02:05 |
| #3 There is no chance it can be contained. It's doubtful we can even slow it down, especially with Tamiflu resistance now emerging. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2005-05-20 01:50 |
| #2 Er, scratch that; not so much interrupting the epidemic before it gets a chance to start, but containing it before the problem spreads beyond SE Asia's shores. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2005-05-20 01:35 |
| #1 What about finding out WHY bird flu and a slew of other flu strains keep popping up first in that part of the world? Are people raising animals in conditions that promote the propagation of the various flu strains that are seemingly in constant threat of jumping to humans? Are there sanitation problems that need to be dealt with? What's the deal? It's all fine and dandy to issue advisories and warnings, but it seems to me that a better course of action would be to try to interrupt the epidemic before it gets a chance to start. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2005-05-20 01:32 |