Now these "inmates" have to endure a hurricane! Surely Durbin, et al are clambering to have them evaluated immediately!
Dennis is now the most intense June or July hurricane on record, beating out Hurricane Audrey of June 1957, which was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds and a central pressure of 946 mb at its peak. Audrey killed 390 people in Texas and Louisiana when it came ashore, making it the sixth most deadly U.S. hurricane on record.
Today will be the worst day in Cuba's modern history. Dennis is a worst-case hurricane following a worst-case path for the island. The storm is already punishing Cuba as it moves parallel to the island, subjecting much of the island to hurricane force winds and rainfall totals of 10 - 15 inches, and destroying much of the rich sugar cane fields and other crops. The situation will get much worse tonight when the storm makes landfall, pushing a storm surge of 20 feet or higher onto a long section of the coast. Dennis will pass near Havana, the most heavily populated part of the island. Although loss of life will be low thanks to Cuba's excellent civil defense system, the destruction of buildings will probably be the worst in Cuba's history. Building collapses are common in Cuba without having hurricane winds battering the cities. Dennis will damage or destroy hundreds of thousands of buildings, leaving a large percentage of Cuba's population homeless. Lack of fresh water and electricity will be serious problems, and Cuba's political stability could well be threatened by the scope of what is likely to be its greatest disaster in modern history.
On that cheerful note, let's talk about the plight of the poor people living in Florida's panhandle, which is likely to bear the brunt of yet another major U.S. landfalling hurricane. Dennis will cross Cuba over a realtively flat section of the island, and be reduced in intensity to only a Category 3 or weak Category 4. Once over the Gulf, some intensification is likely, but the amount remains uncertain. The waters get cooler further north, and since we are still early in July, the depth of warm waters is limited. Dennis may stir up enough cool waters from down deep to limit intensification to a Category 4, or perhaps even reduce it to a Category 2. Dennis looks likely to hit within 50 miles of where last year's Category 3 Hurricane Ivan hit, killing 25 and causing $7 billion in damage. Expect a repeat of this performance, although the exact strength of Dennis at landfall could range between Category 2 and Category 4, and will greatly influence how much damage is done. Key West will likely get hurricane force winds tonight, but miss a direct hit by 40 or so miles. The outer bands of Dennis are already affecting the island; a squall with heavy rain and winds to 30 mph passed through the island at 8:30am. The rest of the west coast of Florida is also likely to miss a direct hit, but still get tropical storm force winds of about 40 mph.
Dr. Jeff Masters |