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| Home Front: Politix |
| Working Both Sides of the Street in Southwest Asia |
| 2005-08-01 |
| It's not easy to make sense of President Bush's recent decision to share nuclear technology with India. Is this merely real politik? Or is it a careless slip in an already unstable world? Unfortunately, the media didn't do a great job helping citizens sort through the mess when the story first broke and they certainly didn't lend the story as much meaning as they ought to have, for, in fact, the significance of this deal cannot be overstated. This agreement - and the blossoming relationship between the United States and India - reflects not only the Bush administration's recognition of India's strategic importance in the global chess game, but also its growing frustration with India's historical foe, Pakistan. Although Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf faces enormous political obstacles at home, he still has not been the reliable ally that Bush had hoped he might become, only softly confronting Islamic fundamentalism in his own country. As a result, Pakistan remains a breeding ground for terrorists (most experts believe Osama bin Laden is in hiding somewhere in Pakistan and three of the four London suicide bombers spent time in Pakistan). The Bush administration's frustration with Pakistan was only compounded by the troubling news that Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan had shared nuclear technology with other countries. The deal with India also reflects how much progress the two countries have made with each other since their years of mutual suspicion, thanks to India's Cold War alliance with the Soviet Union. To fend off China, If I remember correctly. India has proven itself to be a strong and successful democracy and the administration's support of India through this agreement is a long-overdue recognition of its importance and stability. India is not only the world's largest democracy, but it is also a burgeoning superpower and one of the fastest growing economies. Many citizens speak English and their economy is closely tied to the U.S. market. By helping India acquire nuclear power - which will help grow its economy - the United States secures a strong ally in a region that China threatens to upset. U.S. nuclear technology will help India be an effective deterrent to China should the communist nation ruffle her feathers too much as it gains power in the global community. There are, however, some potential problems presented by this agreement. The deal seems reasonable unless India takes this as an excuse to begin throwing its weight around. Pakistan - clearly disturbed by the favoritism being shown toward India by the United States - may turn to China and Russia as allies. (Keep in mind: However imperfect Pakistan's efforts on the war on terror, it is an ally and India refused to support U.S. efforts in Iraq.) The deal also scraps the decades-old approach toward international nonproliferation for an ad hoc approach. Previously, countries were only permitted to purchase nuclear technology if they promised not to develop nuclear bombs. But India has not signed a non-proliferation treaty, and under this agreement, India can still produce nuclear bombs in its military reactors. With an exception being made on the nonproliferation treaty for India, what's to stop others from violating the treaty as well? Changing the rules for one country could persuade China and Russia to make similar exceptions for such countries as Pakistan or Iran. India has the bomb, no? The problem is just more of them. Iran, on the other hand... The deal also seems to solidify the troubling idea that global power requires nuclear weapons capabilities, a notion that may only encourage other nations to accelerate their own nuclear ambitions. It also may weaken the administration's position at the bargaining table for negotiations with both North Korea and Iran over their nuclear programs. Or it could be seen as a carrot for good behavior! Any agreement can backfire ,and only time will tell if India exhibits the appropriate restraint by not taking advantage of this American concession by exploiting its nuclear potential and becoming less - not more - accommodating to U.S. interests. In addition, the agreement - and India's nuclear facilities - will have to be carefully monitored by the international community. India realizes that its relationship with the U.S. is too valuable to tamper with, so it is unlikely that it will act inappropriately. Still, the relationship and this agreement will require constant assessment, oversight and tending. I guess there's no such thing as "Fire and Forget" in international relations. Or even personal relations, come to think of it. |
| Posted by:Bobby |