| Submit your comments on this article |
| Iraq-Jordan |
| Keeping Terrorists on the Run |
| 2005-09-08 |
| September 8, 2005: Thereâs an elaborate chess game going on in central Iraq, and along the Syrian border. Actually, itâs more of a âchase game,â as the al Qaeda and Sunni Arab terrorist groups attempt to maintain control of the shrinking number of areas where they can establish their safe houses and bomb making workshops. This process began last Fall, with the battle for Fallujah. While this left several thousand terrorists killed or captured, at least two thousand, including most of the terrorist leaders, fled Fallujah before the city fell. Over the next few months, the terrorists tried to take over another town, or portion of a city, like Mosul. This didnât work, although it generated some great headlines about a terrorist "comeback". If the terrorists tried to hold ground, American troops came in and killed or captured them. Increasingly, the Americans arrived with Iraqi police or soldiers along, who were able to quickly canvass the liberated area to find out who might be pro-government. There were always a few. Names were taken and phone numbers given out. Sometimes, cell phones were given out as well. The enemy became like nomads, with their caravans of cars, SUVs and pickup trucks moving at night from one sort-of-safe area to another. Increasingly, the caravans of gunmen rolls into areas containing a higher proportion of people hostile to them. The Sunni Arabs have become anti-terrorist for very pragmatic reasons; money. When the caravan of gunmen shows up, they bring with them bullies, religious fanatics and, eventually, American smart bombs. But the terrorists, and their attacks on reconstruction efforts, have also brought over two years of poverty. The Sunni Arabs used to get most of the oil revenue, now they get practically nothing, because the terrorists wonât let any goodies in. Sunnis Arabs note that when the Americans come, they bring goodies. If the Americans stay, they bring in Iraqi cops and money for jobs and building things. This is another case of money as a weapon. The terrorists fight back by making raids of their own. They will drive into a town or neighborhood in strength, usually a few dozen gunmen. They will stay for hours, days, or even a week if their presence is not reported (which quickly brings American or Iraqi troops, and damn smart bombs.) The terrorists will try to intimidate people, to encourage them not to call the government and report where the terrorists are. More and more Sunni Arabs know the Americans will pay for information, and what the phone numbers are to call. For this reason, the terrorists are very hostile to the spreading cell phone service. Cell phones too often mean death for terrorists, as they are used by angry Iraqis to report where the terrorists are hiding. Terrorists have long used cell phones in Baghdad to set off bombs, but in the towns outside of Baghdad, and along the Syrian border, where the terrorists like to hide out, cell phones are viewed with great suspicion. The tips have led to more reports of smart bombs hitting safe houses in towns where there are not American troops or Iraqi troops. These 500 pound bombs often often arrive unexpectedly at night (to limit civilian casualties), and set off secondary explosions, as terrorist munitions explode. Another recent tip, from an arrested suspect, led to a hiding place for two kidnap victims, including an American contractor who had been held for ten months. Most of the kidnap victims freed are Iraqis, and these rarely get reported in the American media. But kidnapping rescues are big news in Iraq, because most of the victims are Iraqis. Terrorists are spending more of their time running, and less time planting roadside bombs or attacking Iraqi police and government officials. In the last two weeks, attacks are down by about half. Some believe that the terrorists are massing their strength to try and disrupt next months voting. But on the ground, there are more and more towns are patrolled by Iraqi police, or pro-government tribal militia, and not al Qaeda or Sunni Arab terrorists. It's becoming more and more difficult for the terrorists to hold ground, much less build and use roadside or car bombs. The objective here is to turn central Iraq into an area where the terrorists are constantly on the run, and eventually run right into the ground and out of business. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #7 The high kill/capture rate is indicative of noobs with little leadership, probably being stabled in Tal Afar prior to being shipped to other handlers. In turn, this backlog means that they can't get further forward, and are in the unlovely position of "You want to kill Americans? They are over there, on the far side of those houses. Go kill them." |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-09-08 16:56 |
| #6 Many Big Abus taken down in the last couple of weeks- Abu Ali, Abu Khalled, Abu Mohammed, Abu Islam. Looks more like hot pursuit than a chess game to me. If you want to use the chess analogy, you would have to say its the end game. The king is still on the board, tho. |
| Posted by: Grunter 2005-09-08 14:44 |
| #5 And who wants to rent a place knowing that at any time your investment property can be turned into matchsticks. |
| Posted by: raptor 2005-09-08 14:24 |
| #4 I noticed on http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_casualties.htm That the border operations did not produce very many American fatalities yet. Does anyone know whether the Iraqis have a similar website? |
| Posted by: mhw 2005-09-08 12:50 |
| #3 There is another hidden problem for the baddies. Safe houses are often rentals, and when the pressure is on, the rental price gets exhorbitant. This was the same problem encountered by the roving bank-robbery gangs in the US of the 1930s. Unless they had a family safe house, they had to pay astounding rents--and even then, with no guarantee that the renter wouldn't turn them in for the reward. While there is a good flow of money from outside of Iraq, if the flow is interrupted for even a week or two, it will force all but the most connected to go on the road. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-09-08 12:20 |
| #2 Great article. I wish the mainstream news outfits, CBS, CNN , MSNBC and even FOX would cover more good news in iraq. |
| Posted by: kiwiruss 2005-09-08 11:39 |
| #1 Obviously more propaganda from the Bush-controlled media. Oh, wait! It's Strategy Page! One can only hope they got it right, and the MSM hasn't noticed/reported the reduction in attacks. |
| Posted by: Bobby 2005-09-08 10:54 |