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Iraq
What Basra has, many covet
2005-10-04
The funnel-shaped southern region of Iraq contains energy, water and strategic wealth without parallel anywhere else in the country. In fact, some analysts think Iraq would not be viable without it. But when British military forces clashed with members of a Shiite militia called the Mahdi Army in Basra last week, it was clear how far the south's most important city had slipped from the control of political leaders in Baghdad and into the hands of warlords and local religious chiefs.

Divided by religion, politics and ethnic background, the diverse groups vying for power in Basra and the swamps and river towns to the north have never been entirely at ease with one another. The national leaders have had little appetite for reining in the rising paramilitary forces in Basra. Still, with talk that Basra could one day be the capital of an autonomous Shiite-ruled southern region, the stakes in this fractured battlefield have never been higher. In the funnel's riches, some advocates for autonomy see the makings of a new Gulf country like Kuwait, with the authority and resources to rebuild itself rather than send the booty north. But if Iraq breaks up, pessimists see the possibility of anarchic rivalries among the Shiites, inviting Iranian domination of the region or even Saudi intervention.

Here is what could be at stake:

Oil

About 70 percent of Iraq's proven oil reserves are in the south - a crucial geographic fact considering that 98 percent of Iraq's budget relies on crude-oil exports. Even those figures underestimate the importance of the southern fields, because only a trickle of oil is being exported in the north. There, attacks have slowed but not stopped. Engineers have been forced to send small supplies of oil through the network secretly and then shut off the flow before the insurgents can strike. In the south, in contrast, sabotage attacks on the web of export pipelines that pass near Basra have almost entirely ceased this year, even though other violence has risen. The pipeline was repeatedly cut by insurgents in 2004.

Electricity

A concentration of power plants in the oil-rich south also allows it to produce a disproportionate share of Iraq's spotty electrical power.
During Saddam Hussein's regime, the electricity flowed overwhelmingly northward along the national grid to service Baghdad. But the U.S. occupation decreed that the energy be shared more evenly around Iraq.
In recent months, however, there have been allegations that energy barons in the south have been manipulating the system to hold back some power rather than let it flow to the rest of Iraq.

Pilgrims

A large amount of traffic flows between Shiite-dominated Basra and the Shiite holy sites of Najaf and Karbala, farther north. Basra also serves as a mustering point for pilgrims all over southern Iraq who come to make the hajj to Mecca in Saudi Arabia. Buses arrive by the hundreds in Basra, unloading chaotic crowds of pilgrims in traditional dress. Then, at Basra's airport, they board flights to Saudi Arabia.

Port

Iraq's two great rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates, converge just north of Basra to form the Shatt al-Arab, which flows into the Gulf. A dispute over the international boundary on the Shatt helped set off the Iran-Iraq war in 1980. The short stretch of coastline south of Basra is Iraq's only access to international waters. The major port is at the town of Umm Qasr, but there are plans to build an enormous new port in Basra itself if financing can be found.

The spectacular marshlands north of Basra, also fed by the Tigris and Euphrates, were largely drained by Saddam because they were a center of Shiite resistance to his rule, but they have rebounded to some extent since he was deposed. The restoration has had good and bad effects: Thousands of displaced marsh Arabs have returned to their homeland, but parts of the inaccessible region have again become lawless, harboring kidnappers and thieves who are loyal only to their tribal chieftains.

Sectarian landscape

Although the entire southern region is predominantly Shiite, there is a Sunni enclave, the city of Zubayr, just a short distance from Basra. Attacks and reprisals between the two cities are common.

Rifts

The Shiites themselves also have geographic fault lines. Political life in Basra is heavily influenced by the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, one of the top two Shiite clerical powers in the country. But a couple of hours on the road north, the provincial capital, Amara, is controlled by loyalists of Moktada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite cleric from Baghdad. In other parts of the south, a party is led by a more moderate former ally of Sadr's father, who was assassinated by Saddam.

Militias

Armies loyal to the various parties have risen in prominence. The Basra police force is believed to be infiltrated by several militias. The recent clash between the British and the Basra police involved fighters loyal to Sadr, but the main militia is the Badr Brigade, which is the armed wing of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution. Another national Shiite party, called Dawa, also has security forces that have had clashes here.
Posted by:DanNY

#1  Grrr...
Posted by: .com   2005-10-04 17:05  

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