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| OECD warns ageing population will hit global growth | ||
| 2005-10-11 | ||
Global economic growth will decline to about 1.7 per cent a year over the next three decades unless older people are encouraged to work longer to offset declining birth rates, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. A study into the impact of an ageing workforce on labour markets warns of rising wage inflation, increased pressure on public finances and declining growth unless the demographic time bomb is defused. By 2050 there will be an average of more than seven older, inactive people supported by just 10 active workers in OECD countries, compared with a ratio of four to 10 in 2000. The pressures on public finances and welfare systems will be even more intense in Europe, where the ratio of active to inactive workers is expected fall to one to one by 2050, says the report. It estimates that GDP growth in OECD countries will be 30 per cent lower than the rate achieved between 1970 and 2000 unless more older employees work longer to overcome skill shortages. âAgeing on this scale would place substantial pressures on public finances and reduce growth in living standards,â it says. The study calls for an overhaul in labour market attitudes, pension arrangements and welfare benefits to discourage employees from opting for early retirement. Raising the age at which state pensions are paid will not work on its own, if countries also provide generous unemployment and other welfare benefits, making it less attractive for older people to remain in work. âIt is essential,â says the OECD, âthat older people do not face a large implicit tax if they choose to continue to work.â Employers also needed to change their ânegative perceptionsâ towards older workers. Flexible and part-time working opportunities must increase while more training would enable older employees to develop new skills. The problem of higher wage and non-wage costs, such as health insurance, which rise more steeply with age than productivity, will also have to be resolved, says the report. It criticised companies for adopting mandatory retirement ages but warned that employment legislation to protect older workers could be counter-productive if it discouraged employers from hiring older age groups. Last year it said âless than 60 per cent of population aged 50 to 64 had a job in the OECDâ.
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| Posted by:lotp |
| #7 I think everyone is missing the point. Unless and until the west can figure out how to encourage its young women to reproduce at least at a replacement rate--we are doomed. Russia's population is a good example: projected to fall by 50% in the next 25 years or so. I guess poverty, abortion and alcoholism are not condusive to family life. Not to worry though--Pakistan has plenty of people to send north. The fanatical and the fertile shall inherit the earth... Just be thankful if you live on the American side of the Atlantic. |
| Posted by: Elmeamble Sneatle3802 2005-10-11 23:00 |
#6 Last year it said âless than 60 per cent of population aged 50 to 64 had a job in the OECDâ.What the hell do those people do all day? (And what money do they do it with?) I'm 59 years old. Last week I worked over 50 hours at my part-time job (admittedly that was high - normally it's under 45). I also worked every other hour I could find at my part-time business (I have a large show at the end of the month and I am NOT READY). Plus I have volunteer rescue squad duty every other weekend, as well as meetings, training, etc. That's in addition to the regular household and life stuff we all have to do. Sure, I'd like a little more free time; to just sit and read a book all the way through in one sitting would be a joy. A good night's sleep would be a gift. Maybe Christmas week. But I'd rather be busy than not work. Even when I was laid off I worked at something. How the hell does anyone with average health stand having nothing to do? (Shopping, housework, and puttering don't count.) And they wonder why their economies are in the dumper and ours - in spite of the huge cost of the war we're fighting for them as well as ourselves, the economic damage caused by Katrina, and all the money we've given for tsunami and earthquake relief - ISN'T. Eleanor Roosevelt said it is better to light one candle than to curse the darkness. Apparently the Euros don't believe it is better to work themselves than blame America for their problems even as they're demanding handouts. :-( |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2005-10-11 21:45 |
| #5 Some local rulers actually tried to make it hard to convert, because they were losing so much of the jizya tax dhimmis paid. |
| Posted by: James 2005-10-11 13:58 |
| #4 Which brings to mind the next question: what does it look like once you run out of dhimmis because they all converted to avoid slavery or third-class status? |
| Posted by: Phil Fraering 2005-10-11 12:54 |
| #3 One question that has bothered me for a while... What, exactly, would a perfect Islamic economy produce? My guess is very little, what with the endless prayer times and absolute subjugation of wimmin and proscriptions on interest and so on. Which leaves us with the dhimmis and slavery to fill the gaps. Insh'Allan. |
| Posted by: Seafarious 2005-10-11 12:23 |
| #2 The situation is worse in China. |
| Posted by: Creger Jase2866 2005-10-11 11:56 |
| #1 Soylent Green anyone? |
| Posted by: bk 2005-10-11 11:52 |