The Syrian leadership has gathered itself in for the next shock after the UN Hariri investigation’s findings drawn up by Detlev Mehlis implicated President Bashar Assad’s close family circle in the assassination of Lebanese leader Rafiq Hariri last February. They expect the UN Security Council convening Tuesday, Oct. 25, to pass an American-French draft resolution condemning Damascus. They are also braced for another disastrous UN report. This one was drawn up by Special Middle East Envoy Terje Roed-Larsen - according to DEBKAfile’s sources, as a cooperative effort with Mehlis. It damns Damascus for violating Security Council resolution 1559 which ordered foreign forces to quit Lebanon and the dismantling of militias in the country. Larsen will expose Syria as continuing to maintain military intelligence agents in Lebanon and derailing efforts to start decommissioning the Hizballah.
The presidential palace in Damascus has set up an emergency response team to ward off these hammer blows. It is made up of officials of the presidency, the foreign ministry, the security services and legal experts. But this official framework is only a façade; it does not affect the turmoil raging inside the close Assad family circle or pacify the top military brass. | Turmoil raging like a bad toe fungus... |
Close enough to be seen as part of the Assad clan is the Syrian tycoon Rami Makhlouf. He is the ruling family’s moneybags whose financial dealings, including transactions with Iraq, have filled the ruling Assad coffers with billions of dollars which are invested outside the country. Makhlouf is especially close to Bouchra.
The first crack in the family’s cohesion was forced by interior minister Ghazi Kenaan and his death (whether murder or suicide. Kenaan provided the cement for the strong bond between the president and brother-in-law Shawqat. Hariri’s assassination convinced Kenaan to pull away from that partnership. This made him a liability and his days were numbered. Then came the traumatic night of Oct. 20, when the unrevised Mehlis report on the Hariri murder handed to the UN secretary implicated Maher Assad and Shawqat by name.
Because of the universal assumption that the pair would never have performed a deed of this magnitude without the president’s knowledge, the ugly cloud moved over his head – even before any proof was adduced that could stand up in court.
This foursome is now locked in together in stifling proximity. Given the slightest hint that any formation of three is willing to sacrifice the fourth member to save themselves will tip the group over into a life-and-death struggle. That is the moment the Assad clan’s enemies are watching and waiting for – within the Assad’s own Alawite sect, among his opponents in the intelligence, security, and military communities and, it goes without saying, among Syrian opposition parties in exile. Rifat Assad, the president’s uncle, is waiting in the wings for his chance to seize the presidency. Washington and Paris are also biding their time. They all judge the Assad family as being on the brink of imploding - which is why condemnation rather than sanctions will come out of the Security Council session Tuesday and why Condoleezza Rice spoke of accountability – but not punishment.
This waiting game is also a game of hazard. The Assad family may hold up through its vicissitudes – only to be overthrown in a military coup; or by another branch of the Assad clan, such as the one led by Rifat. He may opt for violence to topple his nephew’s regime and save the dynasty.
The violent removal of Syria’s ally in Beirut, president Emil Lahoud, whom the UN Hariri report places under grave suspicion, would also shake the Assad presidency to its core. | Yummmm, popcorn! |