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| Southeast Asia | |
| East Asia 'not big enough' for both China & India | |
| 2005-12-05 | |
| East Asia isnât big enough for the two of us. That is Chinaâs message to India in the run-up to the East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur (December 6-14). The summit is expected to announce the core group for a future East Asian community. Beijing is pushing for a group that excludes India. At the heart of the diplomatic battle is a summit declaration that, say diplomats, will say who will be âresponsible for creating an East Asian communityâ. The âwhoâ will be determined by which countries issue the declaration. China wants the all-important line to be part of the declaration of the Asean+3 â the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Japan and South Korea. This means these countries would form the core of what its proponents hope will become the continentâs main multilateral body. India wants the line to be part of a declaration issued by all the summit participants. At present, India is in a separate Asean+1 grouping. âWeâve been arguing for the two groupings to be made into an Asean+4 since the Laos summit last year,â said a senior Indian official. âSo we want the summit to define East Asian in a manner that includes India, covering countries from Japan to Australia.â Asia has split right down the middle. Malaysia has taken up Chinaâs position within Asean. Singapore and, surprisingly, Indonesia are supporting India. Some southeast Asian countries like Thailand, say Indian officials, fear Asean will be overwhelmed by both Asian giants and have declined to take sides. Even the +3 countries are split. Japan backs the Indian call. South Korea wonât anger China, given the Pyongyang problem. Australia and New Zealand are in the same boat as India at the summit. âNormally, we wouldâve worked out the final declaration well before the summit. Now it looks like itâll go down to the wire,â said a southeast Asian diplomat. New Delhi says India has a double stake in being part of the East Asian community. One is economic. âIndiaâs trade and investment ties with East Asia have grown dramatically in the past decade,â said an Indian official. âThe region will be crucial to Indiaâs future economic growth.â The second is geopolitical. India sees Chinaâs opposition to a larger East Asian formulation as evidence of Beijing wanting to curb Indian influence. Prime Minister Manmohan Singhâs speech in Kuala Lumpur is expected to echo the recent statement of Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran that India is prepared to play a âbalancingâ role in Asia. Asia-Pacific diplomats are in agreement that Beijing's motives are overtly geostrategic. "India, by its sheer size, is the only country that could stop the community from being dominated by China," said one diplomat. However, say others, China may be more troubled at the idea of a close US ally like Australia joining. No one is certain where the East Asian community, something which originated in 2000, will go but it has the potential, said one observer, "of being an Asian version of the European Economic Community".
But victory is far from certain. Asean works on consensus, so even one country can block forward movement. Delhi may be lucky to even secure a draw in which the East Asia community line is diluted or becomes part of two declarations. | |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #5 While it is comforting to imagine that there are a few short knives waiting on China's doorstep, even their combined leverage may be wholly insufficient to tip the scales. China is the elelphant in the henhouse and those on her borders had best watch the pachyderm very closely. At least India now has a clear message regarding their status as second fiddle in the East Asian orchestra. I'm hoping America remembers who is democratic and who is not as this potential conflict unfolds. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2005-12-05 21:13 |
| #4 I am paying attention to the contention between India and China. The bottom line is that demographically, economically and militarily they are already in conflict with each other. They just don't know it yet. Their respective military buildups are much like those of the belligerents prior to World War One. And China especially is feeling so powerful that it has foolishly tipped its hand to India, Taiwan and Japan, all of whom know better. Ironically, the main preparations for at least 25 years have been based on a US vs China war scenario. An irony might be the US looking on as the principals duke it out. But the distances involved might make it very chancy for the US to directly provide support to the non-China side. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2005-12-05 13:49 |
| #3 "Go fer your Ecomomic Development, Stranger!" |
| Posted by: mojo 2005-12-05 12:10 |
| #2 This twenty first century Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere including South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore and Australia will be dominated by China. Okay. Sure. |
| Posted by: Spomosing Ominelet7753 2005-12-05 11:17 |
| #1 Six P.M. Kashmir Corral. Be there. |
| Posted by: Bomb-a-rama 2005-12-05 10:34 |